What conclusions can be drawn about a football team, and its coach, by analyzing its scoring pattern?
Quite a bit, if the team scores and allows points throughout the four quarters in an uneven distribution. Let's start with the following assumptions:
- A high net point margin in the first quarter reflects especially well on the game planning and the players' ability to execute.
- Success in the second quarter is partially a function of the team's ability to manage the clock and its timeouts.
- The third quarter is when the coaching staff's in-game adjustments should reach maximum effect. Motivation coming out of the locker room also reflects on the team's leadership.
- The fourth quarter, while potentially decisive in any given contest, is deceptively insignificant in the aggregate due to the high variation in the types of games (close scores versus blowouts in either direction). However, it may be possible to make inferences about a team's conditioning, particularly defensively, and (like the second quarter) game management.
- More overall plays and points are expected in the second and fourth quarters due to clock stoppage rules and the situational finality of the halves.
That said, are you ready for the data from Romeo Crennel's 51-game reign? Here goes:
The obviously significant variation is that this team does much worse in the third quarter (particularly defensively) and the first quarter (particularly offensively). These are the two quarters when the reflection shines more on the coaching than the players.
It is also worth noting that Crennel's Browns have scored 44.8% of the points in their games, but they have won just 39.2% of the games. The obvious hypothesis is that there are management factors which have cost the Browns about three games over the past three-plus seasons.
One might be tempted to charitably dismiss this last point as mere statistical noise. That is, perhaps the higher point percentage can be explained by a few blowout wins, meaning that the team hasn't necessarily underperformed its potential in the other games.
But the facts indicate otherwise: the team is just 1-9 in games with a margin of 15+ points, the sole victory (over Miami in '05) being by 22 points. That is, the Browns' points/wins discrepancy comes despite stat-skewing losses by 41, 30, and 27 points.
In short, the players have changed, the coordinators have changed, but the man who most definitely has not changed, head coach, Romeo Crennel, is as much to blame for the team's underperformance as anyone. In fact, more.