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Ace Davis' Weblog

The First Name in Browns Blogging

March 2007 - Posts

  • A SCORE FOR CALVINBALL?

    Are you one of those Browns fans whose heart is already fixed on one player to draft with that crucial Number 3 pick? Are you a Quinn hater or an AD pimp? Is Browns Town the right and natural place for Calvinball? Are you sound and sensible and set in your stance that a tackle like Joe Thomas is the pivotal pick?
     
    Or maybe you're torn by the options? Daunted by the importance of the task and the Browns' myriad needs? Equivocal to the point of muddled? Just ready to trust Phil implicitly? Insistent that we trade down repeatedly? Preparing your negative reaction to whatever does happen when the commish reads the Browns' card?
     
    Yeah, me too.
     
    That's why I came up with this handy-dandy metric. First I chose a reasonable set of goals to attempt when faced with a decision of this nature. Basically, you want to get help fast with the best available player, a low-risk prospect at a position of need that is worth major investment.
     
    Then I prioritized those five factors for the Browns' current circumstances by weighting them.
     
    This nice Pro Football Weekly article on the importance of the Lions' and Browns' draft positions concludes, "There’s no one player in the top five they couldn’t put to good use." So then it became a matter of ranking those five guys according to each of the five factors, applying the weights, and doing the math (or letting Excel do it).
     

     
    In my quantified opinion, then, Calvin Johnson is the best choice, followed closely by Adrian Peterson. Decidedly in the second tier are Brady Quinn, Jamarcus Russell, and Joe Thomas, bunched closely, with Quinn just barely ahead.
     
    That's all you need to know right? After all, the Browns are guaranteed to get one of their first three choices. I've shown my work, here's my digital proof, so dig it.
     
    Not quite. Of the five factors, two are very specific to the Browns -- "position of need" and "good financial fit" -- while the other three are more player-specific and useful to a variety of teams. The top overall scorer, Johnson, came in last when considering only the Browns-specific factors. That might tip the scales toward Peterson, especially as these scores are based on so many fine judgments, which I'd expect to vary from person to person. But it also points out the need to consider the trade-down option, as Johnson clearly offers more value to other teams than he does to the Browns in their current situation.
     
    So I went ahead and ranked "trade down" as a sixth option and adjusted the scores accordingly. I assumed that trading down means something like getting a lower first-round pick and at least another first-day pick this year. Though you probably (but not definitely) won't end up with any of these five players, trading down has obvious appeal from a salary cap and risk-diversification standpoint.
     
    But nobody sets out to marry an accountant, at least not for that reason. The numbers do indicate that trading down is a very defensible decision, but not quite as dynamic as either Johnson or Peterson.
     

     
    Now, as for what will happen, that's a whole nother spreadsheet. Johnson may be gone anyway. Peterson seems likely to be available. A good trade-down may not be in the offing. Phil's draft board may rank either of the QBs -- and/or the need at that position -- higher than I did. Hey, that and baseball season are what April is for.
     
    In any case, I invite you to tweak the weights and ranks, and let me know what you come up with. When you break it all down into lots of smaller decisions, you may find yourself surprised by how your big-picture view varies from your combined values and judgments. If that's the case, be sure to learn something very profound about your essential nature from it. Then go ahead and blame the metric. And then, just like the rules of Calvinball, make it even better.
  • WE'RE NUMBER ONE (hundred and sixteen)

    Ouch, that's gotta hurt. No, it's not another patellar tear or staph infection, so don't go "woe is me" already. It's the latest Fan Satisfaction Rankings, and the Browns plummeted. In this "ranking that combines the fan perspective with an objective measure of how well teams turn fan dollars into wins," they placed 116th out of 122 teams across the four major pro sports.
     
    Last year the Browns had improved to 66th from their earlier similarly dismal ratings, but that proved to be but a dead cat bounce.
    While Charlie Weis brought luck back to the Irish and Eric Mangini got the Jets to the playoffs, this branch of the Belichick tree can't sprout anything: not Pro Bowlers (none during Romeo Crennel's tenure), not wins (10 in two seasons) and certainly not fan appreciation (Fan Relations rank dropped from 70 to 116). So what's good? Well, at an average of less than $50 a ticket (sixth cheapest in the NFL), it doesn't cost too much to boo the Browns in person.
    To put it succinctly (and with just half the snark), in seven of the eight categories important to fans, the Browns couldn't manage to get out of the bottom third. The only slight exception is because the billionaire owner has too much shame to raise prices given the product that's been foisted on fans.
     
    Here's a less scientific metric: on a recent Watercooler message board thread in which posters ranked their top five favorite sports teams, just 78% put the Browns on top. (As for me, it's the Browns and Detroit Tigers tied at the top, with no other team even in the ballpark.) That's right -- from a self-selected sample of people bothering to post on a message board explicitly for Browns fans during football's off-season, more than one in five people like another team better, and they don't mind saying so. 
     
     Can a dead cat bounce again?
  • 7 SEEDS OF A MEDIA STORM

    Why did the Winslow non-story got so much play last week? It was the perfect storm:
    • Timing. Free agency signings tapered off, while the draft is still over a month away. Something needed to fill in the gap.
    • Media motivation. PFT is run by a Steelers fan, of all things, so he doubtless gets his jollies by sending Cleveland all atwitter.
    • Wheelie's high profile. He's crucial to the offensive identity the Browns hope to establish under Chud. His unavailability would have profound consequences.
    • Wheelie's past problems. The pump has been primed, as they say, by his previous injuries, so the storyline glides along a familiar path.
    • Specialized subject matter. The knee is complicated equipment, and the nuances of microfracture surgery do not make for simple public digestion.
    • The "cursed" Browns meme. This story complies with the standard portrayal of the Browns, continuing a narrative that already featuring Baxter, Bentley, Courtney Brown, Jamir, Zeus, and -- depending on your appetite for the topic -- players stretching as far back as Ernie Davis. (I'm not immune either.)
    • Dishonesty from the official sources. For all their other virtues, the team and Winslow himself have established themselves as not to be trusted when it comes to the timely, complete, and accurate disclosure of player injuries and treatments, this case specifically not excepted. From this dark, slippery breeding ground, lowlife forms of information and informants spawn and spread virally.
    PR on injuries has been all thumbs.
  • TONY'S TRANSPLANT

    Strange year for former Browns who wore #66. First the belated glory of Gene Hickerson's election to the Hall of Fame, tempered by the news of his dementia. Then yesterday, we learned that former left tackle Tony Jones recently had a kidney transplant at age 40. His problems began while he was still a Brown, as detailed in this very interesting biofeature. You may recall that Jones briefly flirted with a return to Cleveland in 2001 after several seasons in Denver. His kidney condition was the major reason for his training camp retirement.
     
    For the benefit of my young or forgetful readers, Jones was a raw, undrafted talent who eventually won Bill Belichick’s respect as one of the league’s best pass blockers. He started 96 straight games for the Browns, mostly at left tackle, and was a team captain by the time the franchise was uprooted. The Ravens’ first draft pick was his eventual replacement, Jonathan Ogden. Jones landed on his feet a year later, getting traded to Denver, where he won two Super Bowls. 
    "I do wonder if taking painkillers for 14 years had a lot to do with it. Other players need to know in the NFL, if you're hurting, don't run to the trainer for pills. It might be best to hurt. I took Percocet, codeine . . . and I never did get off them."
     
    Jones during his Browns days, holding his firstborn son. 
  • BLOG HOUSEKEEPING NOTES

    As Barry ramps up this here MuniLot, it's probably time for a quick administrative post for the benefit of readers new and old.

    Firstly, I wholeheartedly welcome comments, provided they are civil and use language suitable for any underage readers. Due to the proliferation of comment spam, you will need to be logged in (free and painless) for your comment to appear promptly. Otherwise, it sits amid hundreds of links to foreign pharmaceuticals and fetish sites, waiting for me to find and approve it. That could take a while, if ever. Other bloggers here set things up differently, but they'll learn, oh they'll learn...

    If you left a comment that never appeared or tried to reach me and received no response, I apologize. I think Barry has fixed a few things, so try again. 

    Take advantage of the various RSS feeds at the site, blog, tag, or post level. If you don't know what I'm talking about, then shoot me an email (acedavis at theobr dot com). Or just check back frequently.

    MuniLot is the third home for my blog, which began back in October 2002, when there were no other blogs in existence that focused on the Browns. The previous sites are listed to the right under News. Most of the Blogger posts were copied into the Fanmonster site, which Barry then imported entirely into this blog on February 27, 2006. If you come across a post bearing that date, you should know that it was dumped then but actually written at some earlier time, which may or may not be noted. Again, regardless of the post's vintage, feel free to comment, as I'll see it, at the very least.

    If you are extremely bored, check out this post. I may change my mind and offer a prize. Come on, I double-dawg dare you to dip your toe into this time sink.

    My plans for this blog include expanding the links section at right, finishing the Best of the Browns series, updating the Browns Bibliography (the most complete list of Browns-related books anywhere), and posting much more frequently than I have in the past year or so. Your engaged readership motivates me. Please let me know if you have any suggestions, complaints, ideas, or corrections.

    Posted Mar 18 2007, 08:32 PM by Anonymous with 6 comment(s)
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  • CUTTING TO THE CHASING OF THE 'CUTT

    Here is my contrarian post of the month: I am a little bit sad to see Dennis Northcutt go.

    Is it because he was a great wide receiver? No. Because he still has untapped potential? No. Because he deserved to be a lifelong Brown? No.

    The answer is simply this: 'Cutt was the most exciting Browns player since Eric Metcalf. And why do I watch football anyway? It's the excitement, stupid.

    Yes, yes, I know all the knocks on him. Couldn't break a tackle to save his life. Easily knocked off his routes and unable to get open consistently. Too quick to fair catch a punt or prance out of bounds. Questionable hands, no more so than when he dropped the playoff game-clinching third-down conversion in Pittsburgh.
    Disloyal comments during his flubbed first attempt at free agency and on his way out of town this time. Never lived up to his draft position (32nd overall, ahead of Jerry Porter and Laveranues Coles).

    I don't disagree with any of that, nor with the decision to let him go. But neither do I hate him with that peculiar venom stored in the hearts of so many Browns fans. Maybe it's something about this area and guys named Dennis.

    Here are the quick counter-arguments to the above. He missed only 13 out of 113 games due to injury -- not bad for a guy listed at 171 pounds. He was frequently misused as an X receiver (out wide and on the line of scrimmage, rather than backed off and in the slot). Yes, he dropped that crucial pass, but he also led the team in receptions and scored two touchdowns in that game. Some of his comments were questionable, but as a distraction, he's not even in the same league as the Detroit Diva or Wheelie. Fact is, after his agent botched his chance to hit the open market in '04, 'Cutt settled down and came to terms that gave him three more years in Cleveland. He never made the Pro Bowl, but neither have any of the many other highly-drafted receivers in the perennially poor Browns offense.

    Let's put the arc of his Browns career into perspective. He was shaky his first two years, with plenty of rumblings that he might not even make the team in 2002. But he emerged as a key contributor during that wild ride of a season, leading the team in touchdowns with nine, including a pair of punt returns. Three particular plays, among others, stand out in memory: a crucial onsides kick recovery along the sideline and a shifty late touchdown catch during a comeback win in Nashville, and a bizarre Tim Couch lob in the Meadowlands, with 'Cutt snaring the tying two-point conversion. In short, the Browns would not have sniffed the playoffs in '02 without the mutidimensional threat Northcutt provided.

    He led the Browns in receiving each of the next two years, despite starting only about half the time. On that dreadful 2004 team, he had seven pass plays of at least 40 yards (second in the league). Then in 2005, the Mo Carthon offense did him no favors, nor did his penalty-plagued special teams blockers. His star headed south, and it was no surprise whatsoever that the Browns made no attempt to retain him when his contract finally expired.

    Still, he ended his Browns career shattering Ice Cube McNeil's records for punt returns (by 25%) and punt return yards (by 39%). His average of 10.6 is tied with Metcalf, trailing only Greg Pruitt and Bobby Mitchell. He's tied with Ernest Byner for 10th in career receptions.

    In terms of the new Browns, he has the most combined yardage and ranks second to Kevin Johnson in receiving and overall touchdowns. He's also the 11th leading rusher, with 330 yards (7.3 average), including 13 first downs.

    So it's been a mixed bag for Northcutt, but such is often the nature of excitement. He may very well go down in Browns history as the most productive player mistreated and/or maligned by his agent, two coaching regimes, and his own fans.

    Tying the 2002 Jets game with a two-point conversion 

    Scoring one of his two TDs in the wild, wild, wildcard game 

  • MATCHMAKER

    Dizzy from the swirl of off-season transactions, I find it helpful to create matched pairs. They let me see how Phil Savage has chosen to address certain positions, and whether the net effect is an upgrade. Unmatched outbound players signal a probable positional need yet to be filled, primarily through the draft, but potentially through free agency and trades. Unmatched inbound players may presage the departure of a familiar name, or -- in the best case -- upgraded team depth at that position. So let's see how the the moves stack up so far. (My analysis in italics.)
     
    Departing player ==> Arriving player
    • G Cosey Coleman (UFA, unsigned) ==> G/T Eric Steinbach (UFA, Cincinnati, 7-year deal) Huge upgrade in both talent and versatility.
    • RB Reuben Droughns (traded to NYG for Tim Carter) ==> RB Jamal Lewis (UFA, Baltimore, 1-year deal) It will be interesting to see how much speed Lewis really has left. The Browns' longest run last year was by a backup pocket passer.
    • DE Alvin McKinley (UFA, unsigned) ==> DE Robaire Smith (UFA, Tennessee, 4-year deal) Significant upgrade.
    • DL Nick Eason (UFA, unsigned) ==> NT Shaun Smith (RFA, Cincinnati, 4-year deal) Eason never broke out; Smith may be the answer on the nose. Bonus points for snaring another Bengal.
    • G Lennie Friedman (UFA, unsigned) ==> C/G Seth McKinney (UFA, Miami, 1-year deal) Nice upgrade here, getting a viable starter, savvy and motivated to return from injury.
    • CB Daylon McCutcheon (released) ==> CB Kenny Wright (UFA, Washington, 3-year deal) Sounds like 'Cutch soured on the program and took the injury settlement. Very sorry to see him go. Wright at least is another veteran.
    • WR/PR Dennis Northcutt (UFA, Jacksonville) ==> WR Tim Carter (trade, signed through '07) A near push at WR, but there's no heir apparent at punt returner. 
    Other departing players
    • Starting S Brian Russell (UFA, Seattle) Will late-season acquisition Ben Emanuel suffice as the fourth young safety?
    • Starting FB Terrelle Smith (released) Need another road-grader and special-teamer to pair with Vickers. Vonta Leach, anyone?
    • Backup CB Ralph Brown (UFA, unsigned) Unless Baxter's middle name is Lazarus, this is an undeniable position of need headed into the draft. And if there was a good reason for paying Jeremy LeSueur for that year on IR, we'll need to find out soon. 
    Other arriving players
    • OLB Antwan Peek (UFA, Houston, 3-year deal) Chaun Thompson could be traded; Matt Stewart and especially David McMillan also look vulnerable.
    • TE Buck Ortega  (reserve/future contract) Chud's familiarity with this U product may have earned him another look.
    • WR Steve Sanders (reserve/future contract) Camp fodder.
    • P Kyle Basler (reserve/future contract) Camp fodder.
    Re-signed
    • RB Jason Wright -- (1-year extension through '08) Solid if unspectacular change-of-pace back.
    • C Hank Fraley -- (4-year deal) Had me sweating for a bit, but I'm very relieved they got this done.
    • T Kelly Butler -- (2-year extension) Acceptable backup, marginal starter to this point.
    Summary
     
    I almost want to say that much depends on the pre-draft assessment of whether Ryan Tucker and -- less likely -- LeCharles Bentley and Gary Baxter can return to form. But both Wheelie and the Detroit Diva played every game last season, and the Browns still reeked.
     
    Of the moves so far, three have undeniably improved the team, and several others show strong potential for same. If the seven draft picks are the only pieces left to add to the puzzle, it makes sense to shoot for (in rough order of importance, if not draft position) a RB, QB, DE, OT, CB, G, and S. I'd prefer to trade down in hopes of also adding a PR, NT, and/or FB, or even a developmental LB or TE.
     
    Fact is, despite a generally wise use of cap cash, there are still too many holes at too many positions. All these matches just mean that the plugged holes should hold up better. That's good if you're on the attack, on both sides of the ball. But you know what they say about only being as good as the weakest link.
     
    Best bet for making the playoffs in '07 (always my minimal standard for a successful season) lies with avoiding the QBs in the draft, coaching up Charlie (and Derek too), and bringing in a veteran QB with playoff experience as a fallback. It's a value approach to cap management: developing a decent performer at the league's priciest position with a mid-round draftee playing under his original contract.
     
    But I would certainly understand it if Phil just could not trade out of the three spot; there would be no better time to take one of the two QBs.
  • ERIC STEINBACH: ANALYSIS BY ANAGRAM

    Ah, the signing of the league's premiere free agent offensive lineman! Just what the doctor (re)ordered. Not for that other Ohio NFL town though. Might as well have posted a "Stab Cinci Here" sign on the heart of the Queen City. Phil Savage lured him in with $49 million from Randy Lerner's riches cabinet, and Browns fans did rejoice. The head coach was delighted too, in his typically understated way:

    "This be nice." -- RAC
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