Dawghouse Blog

April 2006 - Posts

• Data Says DT

  I've been feeling like OLB is a riskier pick than DT but have had trouble explaining why that might be. Then I cam across this great little article on Football Outsiders that breaks down the data. Given where the Browns currently are, I think it adds to the reasons to select Bunkley or N'Gata at #12 if they are still available. In fact, I'll be pretty suprised if Savage opts to do anything else. Sure, we need linebackers. But we need a true force on the defensive line, and we are unlikely to get that guy in the second round. Posted Apr 28 2006, 05:06 PM by MikeB with 1 comment(s) Filed under: Browns

• Best Guesses

  My pick for the draft. In the first round the Browns select.... Broderick Bunkley. Savage mentioned that Bunkley projects to a 3-4 DE more than a nosetackle. I think that's the clue that Savage probably prefers Bunkley if he's available at #12 because Bunkley could immediately rotate in and might even win the starting job now held by Alvin McKinley. Will he still be on the board at #12? Buffalo at #8 is the team most frequently mentioned to be hot after him. But I think we should expect the unexpected at the top of the draft, and Buffalo may find themselves picking with an unexpected player or two still on the board. And I'm an optimist. Thoughts on other possibilities... Kamerion Wimbley. I am intrigued, and I love the fact that by all accounts he's a hard worker and a high character guy. I'll make no bones about the fact that I'd pick a good, high character player over a great player who's a jackass. My concerns with Wimbley have to do with good-not-great college production and some injuries. He seems to me to be a very promising speed rusher but the kind of guy who is going to get nicked up quite a bit. In that sense, yeah, he could be the next Dwight Freeney. Freeney is a great player but I guess I'm not partial to a "speed rusher" if it means being one-dimensional. As usual (and because we fans have no choice), I'll have to defer to the FO on this one. Haloti Ngata. It's looking more and more like Ngata will be there at 12. And while Bunkley has been a late riser up draft boards, Ngata is the guy if you want a dominating nosetackle for years to come. The question to me is how he fits into the plan on this Browns team. Ted Washington is obviously not the guy for more than a couple years, so iin some ways selecting Ngata is perfect. But if you look at Savage's history with the Ravens I don't recall the Ravens selecting many guys to sit and be groomed for a year ot two. Manny Lawson. It sounds like Lawson is the best bet for a 3-4 OLB, particularly if you want production right away. Lawson might also be the Browns' likely target if they manage to trade down a few spots. I've been swayed by all that I've read that Lawson is the safer pick than Wimbley. And of all the guys who might be a reach at twelve, this is the guy that it will pain me to see go to another team. Chad Greenway. A month or two back Greenway was a popular pick for the Browns in mock drafts. After a lackluster combine effort he really fell off the map. But we've now heard Savage talk for a year about valuing on-the-field production more than anything else. And Greenway was undoubtedly a great on-the-field talent at Iowa. Rounds 1 through 3 the Browns will get three of these four positons: DL, OLB, ILB, OG. I guess they could opt for a wide receiver but it just seems like Savage and Crennel are intent on strengthening the non-skill positions and getting the team better at the line of scrimmage. Later rounds, a running back, some 3-4 guys, maybe another tight end. But it's hardly worth trying to predict what will happen here cause it all depends on who's caught the scouts eye. And while we need to get the safety position figured out, we've gotten basically no clues as to how the FO and coaches feel about the guys currently on the roster and where they might be on the depth chart in '06. Other misc draft thoughts: I'm happy to hear N'gata slipping in a lot of mocks even as I'm dismayed when I see a place like OurLads compare him to Gerard Warren. I don't care, I still would like to see him be the Browns' pick. I mean, it isn't like Warren could never play football and had no talent, so _some_ comparison to Warren isn't entirely bad. And somehow I think things are going to work out differently than 5 years ago. I'm still not partial to selecting an OLB in the first, but it sure sounds like Manny Lawson is a surer thing that Kamerion Wimbley. If the Browns select Lawson I could careless if people say we "reached." Give me a break. At #12 you pick the player that will help the team the most. The difference in money between picks 12 and 20 is unimportant. The top of this draft should be very entertaining. There's obviously more uncertainty than most years about where the top players will land, and it will be very interesting to see who slides. If I am Tennessee I take Vince Young. There's a lot to worry about with a guy like that, but I think it won't take more than a couple years to see if Young will be a good NFL QB. And c'mon, did no one watch the Rose Bowl? I think scouts around the league are overthinking this guy way too much, and a fear of failure is permeating front office's in the top half of this draft. Young is the most dynamic quarterback prospect since Michael Vick except he's a better thrower and he's bigger. If I was at the top of the draft a few years ago I probably wouldn't have pursued Vick. But this year I'd take Young unless I was truly already set at QB. The draft is all about making educated gambles. Young is not going to be a tease. And if you pick a QB early, a tease is the worst possible type of quarterback. I'm happy to read that the Titans appear serious about picking Young cause it should be a good situation for that sort of QB. I hope I never again hear the phrase that a defensive back is an "intriguing guy because he can play safety and corner." So what? As far as I know there is no DB who can play both at the same time. And besides, wouldn't just about every such player opt to play corner and get the big money? Ask freaking Gary Baxter. It sure looks like Bobby Carpenter is now a concensus first rounder, and probably not late first round either. I can't dispute everyone's opinion of AJ Hawk, but personally I never quite saw what the big difference was between Hawk and Carpenter. In some ways it seemed like Carpenter was a better pro prospect because he seemed to play a little lower to the ground than Hawk. But maybe I don't watch enough of the Buckeyes. I don't see how Sinorice Moss is a first round pick. Usually you have to be _good_ in college to be a first round pick. It does entertain me to see some mocks select him to go to the Steelers though... Hopefully the Giants signing of Arrington will prevent them from picking a lineback in the late first round. And thus leaving one ore potential guy for the Browns to select in the second round. The ESPN mock draft today had the Jets picking Ferguson at #4 and OG Joseph late in the first. That would be too smart for the Jets to do. I'm kind of hoping Joseph slides into the second. I'm still a believer that the Browns can make a big impact on their long-term offensive line play by having some good young talent at guard, and that good guard play is just as important as having a great left tackle. While LenDale White to the Steelers would be great for the Steelers, I can't imagine the rest of the NFL basically ignoring his on-the-field college performance and not picking him before the Steelers are on the board. Posted Apr 27 2006, 05:44 PM by MikeB with 1 comment(s) Filed under: Browns

• Entering Draft Mode

  Pre-draft articles are usually light on interesting information, but I do find it somewhat interesting that Phil Savage is upfront about the usual drafting for need vs. drafting the best player available issue. "The question's always asked, best available versus need?" Savage said. "I think it's really a combination of the two. It's best available for your team, and that's how we try to set up our board." This is one of those things that is instinctively obvious to most football fans, yet a lot of GM's are reluctant to even admit they drafted anyone but the best player available. I think need, and how a player would fit in on a team over the next 3-5 years, is the primary consideration for high draft picks; you don't pick a player at a position if your roster is already stacked at that position. Of course, most teams aren't set at more than 2 or 3 positions so in some respects it's easy to identify a need. The Browns need more than most teams, but even here it's easy to see where we need players: DL, LB, S, OL, WR, in roughly that order. My for-the-moment guess for the Browns in the upcoming draft -- they go with a defensive lineman in the first (N'gata or Bunkley, hopefully) because it's comparatively easier to project a nosetackle or d-end than it is to project an outside linebacker. Then in the second they get a guy like ILB D'Qwell Jackson of Maryland to play next to Andra Davis. And, since McGinest probably has a few years left in the tank, they pick up an OLB or two in the middle rounds. Also in the above article -- Jeff Faine, still not traded. No real news there, but Savage did say he expects possible trade activity to heat up around the draft. We'll see. The more I think about it I think it would be better to trade Faine for a player or a 2007 draft pick rather than a 2006 pick. We already have some extra middle round picks and there's only so many rookies you can bring to camp each year and give a legitimate shot to. It's obvious and been mentioned frequently -- but it would be a very good thing for the Browns for all three top QB's to be selected in the top 10 (or, rather, 11) picks. If Cutler slides I see that as being the worst case scenario. If Young slides it could be an opoortunity for the Browns to trade down, depending on who else is still on the board. I'm still not a big Reggie Bush fan as the number one pick. But I'm coming around to accept he is probably going to be a very good pro. Sort of a Steve Smith-at-running-back type of player. I'm still hoping LaVar Arrington remains unsigned for a long time, long enough for the Browns to have a shot to sign him at a modest price for a year or two. I think he'd be a nice asset to have for a short-term contract because, after basically being left out to dry all offseason this year, he's going to extremely motivated this season in order to get a monster contract from some other team. I think LenDale White would be a very good addition to the Steelers. Sure, he's come off as a bit lazy, unmotivated, and a general jackass in the pre-draft buildup. But his on-field performance in 05-06 was 1st-round material, and if the Steelers think they can get him into their program you can say goodbye to the days of Willie Parker getting the ball 20+ times a game. Posted Apr 19 2006, 01:48 PM by MikeB with 5 comment(s) Filed under: Browns

• Chatter & Blather

  The schedule is out. You have to hand it to the NFL -- they keep a steady stream of "news" throughout the offseason. Even the schedule, which might be the biggest non-news piece of news all offseason, still gets on the front page of every sports section in the country. My only really impression on the schedule -- it's strange to have so many 4 p.m. games in the first half of the season. Maybe that means the Browns get a bit more exposure nationwide since fewer games are played during that time slot. More likely, it's just the way things shook out. Either way, the 2006 season will require unusual flexibility when it comes to scheduling quality game-viewing, beer drinking, complaining, etc. Hmm. The 9 of 11 defensive starters for the Steelers are under contract for the next two years. I think this is a pretty good sign they will be restocking the shelf on offense later this month. Really, the Steelers are in good shape. Right now the best hope for dimished production is on offense where, besides losing Randle-El, they're a bit short at wide receiver and running back. That answer for the Steelers in the upcoming draft, however, is probably to bulk up on the offensive line. While thinking of division rivals, anyone else have the feeling that whomever the Browns don't pick (but lots of people want) will immediately be selected by the Ravens? We both seem to be most interested in front 7 defenders. What would be wrong with picking WInston Justice in the first round? It sounds like he is worthy of the #12 pick, and if he is good enough then great. So far, he's the one non-front-7 defender that seems like a good fit for the Browns. Simon Fraser back for another year. No comment, other than the usual good for him. It's nice to see guys make careers for themselves. You need, what, three seasons to qualify for the NFL pension? Have the Chiefs done anythng this offseason other than bilk the Jets out of a coach? Are they ever going to get a quarterback that could maybe, in a pinch, win a game for them? I'm intrigued where Leinart and young go in the draft. They both deserve to go high, the top 3 picks if I was a GM. But that seems unlikely now. What I don't get is the grumbliing about how Leinart didn't run a 40 yard dash. I guess that's weird and a little stupid, but does that really hurt his draft standing? If you're a GM that likes him would you honestly consider not drafting him because he didn't run a 40? C'mon. You have to like the way the Sunday night football broadcast schedule will NOT be set in stone for the last half of the season. It might be too late for me, but future generations may not have to suffer the brain damage I have of hearing Theisman, McGuire and Tirico blabber endlessly while a totally meaningless game is played out. Read the the Texans gave the Bills a fifth rounder for Moulds. The pick is the first pick of that round, so it has some value, but this is really a negligable price to pay. And in effect the Texans acquired Moulds as if he was a freeagent. And while they will certainly give him a nice contract, I'd bet the Texans bought themselves a pretty good discount over what Moulds could have drawn on the open market. I wish I could have gone downtown and spent the morning at the Mike & Mike broadcast. Sounded like fun. The story about Bob Golic's only NFL interception what pretty hilarious (and how on the return he sidestepped the quarterback, who was unconscious, but sort of twitching...), and the conversation with Mark Shapiro was impressive. Shapiro is the man. And really we in Cleveland are pretty lucky to have what are apparently three very competent GM's for the Browns, Indians and Cavs. I am not at all a NASCAR fan, but this, and the entire backstory story about Dateline trying to provoke anti-Muslim reaction from NASCAR fans is a joke. Why NBC would do this is not clear to me since NASCAR fans is a large part of the tv-viewing public, but then again this sort of approach is familiar to investigative news programs. I'm surprised Carl Monday hasn't already tried this! Anyway, my favorite part is the AP story that says that decoy Muslims "walked around and no one bothered them." Hehe. While I wouldn't against these decoys getting some harrassment eventually, the longer this sort of sting-investigation thing goes on the more likely the negative reaction will be because these people identified as Dateline decoys rather than Muslims at a NASCAR event. And while Dateline tries to suggest that NASCAR fans are prejudiced, what is known so far is tha tDateline producers certainly are prejudiced... against NASCAR fans. What a world we live in. Props to Dennis Kucinich -- I'm not a fan of his policies, but I have to hand it to his office for being quite responsive assisting my mom in dealing with a certain Cuyahoga County government bureacracy. And, to be frank, this little experience has opened my eyes to something I didn't know a Congressman's office did, which is directly assist citizens in this manner. Pretty cool. Do all Congressional offices do this? Are Congresional offices at all obligated to assist individuals dealing with various government offices? I'm guessing this is up to individual Congressmen, but really don't know. Posted Apr 07 2006, 01:54 PM by MikeB with 10 comment(s) Filed under: General, Browns

• NFL Notes

  Wow, the situation with the Titans and McNair reminds me of the way Butch handled the departure of Tim Couch. Either the Titans are similarly hamfisted or Butch's finesse wasn't quite as bad as everyone thought. I'd go with the former. Watching ESPN on the USC pro-day, I'd pretty suprised Lendale White looks like such a moron. The guy looked great down the stretch for USC and, to my eye, looked like a great pro prospect. Now he looks like just another idiot who doesn't even know how the draft-game is played. Oh yeah, the video of White doing bench presses was p-a-t-h-e-t-i-c. I don't care how many reps he did or didn't do. It was the form -- perhaps the worst bench pressing technique I've ever seen. You would see better form at Bally's or the high school weight room. Of course, such things cut both ways. It reflects very poorly on White's college career. But it's also got to perk the interest of coaches because perhaps, with a strength and conditioning coach breathing down his neck, White probably has more untapped potential than most guys. But you have to think it's hard to teach work ethic at this point. It's kind of, uh, overkill for the NFL Network to have a two-hour show just to unveil the 2006 schedule. What is there to talk about? I look at the schedule and usually just think, "Hmm, how about that" and then move on with my day. Sure, I care at what point in the season the Browns play the Steelers and Ravens and if the schedule trends easier or harder and how long the road trips will be.... but c'mon, who would watch a TV show that discusses such issues for any team other than their own? Even Peter King would only care about the 1/3 of the league he covers. You know what is sort of sad? That the Falcons could get a lot -- make that much, much more -- in a trade for Matt Schuab than trading away Michael Vick. I bet Vick wouldn't net more than the second rounder Culpepper fetched. Of course, this is also a good argument for frugality and not paying decent players huge money. A few years back I thought Mark Chmura was the biggest putz in the world -- you know, Rush Limbaugh lovin' Packer hops in hot tubs with tean girls, etc. Sure, no crime was committed but Mr. Chmura was rightfully knocked off his high horse when it came to non-football conversation topics. Until the other day when he nailed the whole Will-Brett-Retire issue. Chmura is right -- Favre is being a dick, stringing the team along, and doing no one any favors in the process. One thing is for certain -- if Favre retires now he'll be more loved than if he plays another year. And while Brett may enjoy making the Packers front office twist in the wind, he's really just pissing away fan goodwill and making it more likely he'll get thumped out the door instead of walking away voluntarily. Franky, I think the GM Thompson should announce right now that the Packers are planning to move on without Favre. He will take heat for it and might even ultimately lose his GM job. But he'll have solidified a career in the NFL on the football side for acting upon what probably every football scout sees: Favre should hang it up. And no, Thompson doesn't have to be brutal about it, just frank. And suggest that the best way to leave the game (other than retire immeidately) would be to help make Aaron Rodgers into a worthy successor (an admittedly unenviable task). The Bill and Texans are arguing about compensation for Moulds. Memo to Texans -- give them the fourth rounder, Moulds is worth far more than that, especially to your team. Sam Adams has finally signed with the Bengals. Didn't he do that, like, two weeks ago? Anyway, it's shaping up to be an interesting 2006 season for the AFC North. I think the Steelers and Bengals should be less concerned with one another than they should be looking in their rear-view mirror. The Browns and, maybe, the Ravens could cost one of those teams a wild-card birth. Peter King (the man I love to read so I can get annoyed) thinks false-start penalties are picky. I couldn't disagree more. Offensive linemen flinching? That's gonna throw off the defense. WR's faking the start of a play? It makes a difference. King also picks the Indians in the AL Central and Grady Sizemore for AL MVP. Hey, I hope it's true, but that is pretty insane. Later on in the article he rips Harold Reynolds for pick Bobby Crosby as AL MVP. Sure, that's less likely, but kind of funny from someone who just picked a second-year player as his MVP. NCAA bracket action: I didn't win anything individually, but my workgroup at work won a free breakfast on Xavier (who beat the spread vs. Gonzaga, who beat the spread vs. UCLA, who beat the spread until the final). And my wife won a nice chunk of cash picking FLA and UCLA in the Final Four and FLA as the champ. That should pay for our hotel on a trip to.... Florida, of course. Pretty cool. I'm not panicking about Sabathia unless he's out all year. It's a little scary, but this is a good team. I'm more interested in how the Tribe plays the next two weeks. They just need to stay around .500 until they get rolling. Posted Apr 04 2006, 01:00 PM by MikeB with 7 comment(s) Filed under: Browns