Dawghouse Blog

I think ESPN should try to get part of the English Premier League package when its contract comes up and make a concerted effort to build the profile of the Champions League.

CLEVELAND BROWNS
Don't look to our heros to win your fantasy league. If the Browns are competitive this year it will be because the defense shows improvement, the running game is north of average, and Frye only has to make 4-5 big plays a game. That doesn't mean there's nothing of interest here. Just that you should strongly resist the temptation to draft a Brown before his time.

There's a lot to like here though. The defense has gotten a nice immediate boost in veterans Ted Washington and Willie McGinest, while the team drafted potential mainstays in LBs Wimbley, D'Quell Jackson, and Leon Williams as well as NT Babatunde Oshinowo. If a guy like Brodney Pool emerges as a solid starter this defense could look pretty good. On offense, the big news was replacing Jeff Faine with LeCharles Bentley and LJ Shelton with Kevin Shaffer. The return of Kellen Winslow offers great promise. Charlie Frye appears to be set to build upon a nice rookie season. And as the season wears on, Braylon Edwards will return to a receiving core now headed by the underrated Jurevicius. And Droughns seems poised to have his best pro opportunity. There are a lot of "ifs", and they won't all go as hoped, but none of them are longshots either. Fantasy-wise, Droughns leads the pack, and no one other player leaps out as a huge breakout candidate. Instead, several Browns players will be good fantasy depth or good for the occasional spot start.

Charlie Frye had, on the whole, a very good rookie campaign. He showed poise, pretty good decision making, great instincts, and knack to go for the big play when a chance was there. In many ways, he appears to be the anti-Couch. But he also showed that there are definite limits on his physical abilities, mainly his arm strength, and he still has to absorb the complexities of NFL quarterbacking. It should be a interesting experiment to see whether guts will triumph over pedigree. I wouldn't bet against him, but can he put up numbers? Certainly he is no fantasy starter. He's not proven enough to even be a sure #2. But he's probably the best #3 to be found and shows more promise in 2006 than just about any highly touted draft pick of recent years. Frye will likely start the season modestly and, if all goes well, could grow into a decent statistical performer by mid-season. Which puts him maybe into the bottom of a fantasy draft and the sort of guy you have on your roster in the off chance he really blossoms.

Reuben Droughns, despite some concerning off the field stuff this offseason, is likely to be the undisputed go-to guy at RB. And that's a pretty good thing with an improved offensive line. As long as Frye performs capably Droughns should have a nice season along the lines of 1300 yards and 8-9 TDs. He'll probably see fewer overall carries than in 2005, but look better down the stretch. He could wind up with a few hundred yards more. The biggest concerns are 1) whether off the field stuff has a negative effect, and 2) whether someone else (Vickers?) gets carries down by the goalline. I'd say both are pretty unlikely. As it stands, Droughns is a good #2 back and could go in the 3rd or 4th, though in league's not filled with Browns fans he may last a round or two longer and be a pretty good deal.

Kellen Winslow ought to be a popular guy for pre-draft roundtables. He could go fairly high (middle rounds) if you've got an enthusiastic owner in your leauge. But I think there are too many good tight end prospects in the NFL for Winslow to do any better than the 7th-9th TE off the board, and perhaps not even that high. How will he do? Who knows? There's an abundance of good vibes at the moment, and it seems reasonable to expect Winslow to have the best year of any Browns TE since '99. But that doesn't necesarily equate to fantasy worthiness. I'm thinking 600 yards and 4-5 TDs would be great. But no one knows since so much depends on his health, how the offense is structured, and how Frye is able to find him. It's not that far-fetchd to imagine an offense where Frye looks to Jurevicius as his dependable WR and looks to Winslow for big plays. But that is merely the most optimistic of many possible outcomes. Me, I'm modest in my hopes and wouldn't be inclined to pick Winslow until many other guys are off the board, or perhaps after I've snagged a top-shelf TE and feel happy enough with my team's depth to be the first to burn a pick to make a calculated gamble on on Winslow. And frankly, Browns fans should be happy if Winslow is decent and gives opposing defenses something to legitimately worry about. 10th round or later.

Joe Jurevicius is clearly the most likely WR to have a fantasy impact. He might be the only one. He'll almost certainly lead the team in receptions, yardage and TD. But that may only mean 900 yards and 5-6 TDs. I'd pick him as a 4th receiver, maybe a 3rd since he'll certainly get the opportunity to do some damage. He doesn't have a real explosive upside but could certainly turn out to be a consistent scorer as a #2 receiver. It depends how you like your fantasy players -- do you gamble on guys who can bust out with the big games or value the guy who always puts up decent, if not spectacular, numbers? Most teams should have a bit of both.

Braylon Edwards. Late round pick to stash on IR. Maybe he contributes something for the fantasy playoff run, but 2-3 months is a long time to keep dead weight on the roster. He might be worth it, but he might also need to get dropped to waivers if your roster needs the flexibility. Thus, Edwards is a flyer for the latest rounds or a free agent pickup. Most likely, you can let some other owner pick him prematurely. And scoop him off waivers later in the season and gamble with house money.

Northcutt, Frisman, Green, Wilson, Cribbs, are all role players. Don't pick them. Maybe consider signing them for a brief period if they find themselves in the starting lineup and matchups look favorable. That's it.

Lee Suggs is in the above category, but he's at least shown some ability to be a fantasy performer if he 1) is healthy and 2) was the starter. If that ever happens he'd be a very nice free agent pickup. Those are two big ifs, however. He could get traded as well, so that could change his value too. PITTSBURGH STEELERS
They won the Super Bowl. It's still painful to think about this fact, even for someone who has a lot of respect for the Steelers. There's not reason to expect the Steelers to drop off this season, and in some ways we can expect better fantasy production since the losses of Bettis and Randle El may mean the offense has to flow through fewer players. But more than anything you can count on the defense to be at least as good as 2005. They've basically lost no players and this year I think some of their younger players in the defensive backfield are ready to make an impact.

Ben Roethlisberger continues to improve. His size, mobility, and arm strength are there. And Ben has proven he's got a fire in his belly and can often rise to the occasion of the game at hand. But still looks Couch-esque to me at times and has a tendency to middle his way through some games, so expect some inconsistency. I expect the Steelers to throw a bit more this season since they won't have Bettis to fall back on, so Roethlisberger's yardage will improve. For fantasy purposes, Roethlisberger is still a backup. Even if he scores top 10 overall, odds are he'll have too many unimpressive games to rely on. I'd recommend drafting later, somewhere in the 8th-10th round depending on how your draft plays out. And if someone else jumps aboard sooner, so be it.

Hines Ward has been a solid fantasy #1 WR for several years now despite playing for a run/defense-centric team. He's able to put up the numbers because when the Steelers don't throw, they still managed to get Ward enough touches. Part of the reason is because he's a great blocker and never leaves the field. This year Ward will garner a bit more attention from defenses. He'll still get his numbers. But I think his ceiling is more or less maxxed out. He should be a top WR, but not more than a late 3rd pick. Ideally you can get him in the 4th or 5th after he's passed over by some other teams. The thing with Ward is you may not get too many really big scoring games. If you pick him as your #1, you're probably going to want to go hunting for a couple potential gamebreakers at WR later in the draft.

Cedrick Wilson, Santonio Holmes, Quincy Morgan. I don't expect much from any of these guys. Wilson will have the occasional good game. Holmes might blosson into a good player and could pick up some punt-return scores, though he looks like an idiot off the field. Morgan, well, I just threw him in there for entertainment purposes. Draft Holmes very late if the draft is getting boring.

Heath Miller is a good tight end prospect. He's not going to be a top 3 TE but he stands a decent shot of being top 10, maybe top 5 if he's fortunate. While he had a good rookie season, Miller now appears well positioned to take advantage of the departure of Randle El, the retirement of Bettis, and the development of Roethlisberger. You don't want to draft him as your only option, but he could start and has a big upside.

Willie Parker is fast, plays behind a good offensive line, and will get the ball plenty. What's not clear is whether he can handle carrying the load for a full year and whether he's good enough to get tough yards inside. Despite the Steelers penchant for running the ball, don't draft Parker as anything more than a 3rd or 4th RB. He'll likely splite time with Staley too, so who knows. If Parker winds up being the man, he's a pretty decent #2 guy.

Duce Staley is coming back, and reports are rather encouraging. Staley could give the ground game some muscle, and take away short-yardage carries from Parker in the process. I don't see any way Staley could emerge as a viable fantasy candidate unless Parker goes down and Staley is playing very well. Could happen, but if it hasn't happened by draft day I'd look elsewhere first.

Verron Haynes is not draftable. But he's the likely guy to get lots of carries if Parker is hurt since Haynes appears to be a better overall back than Staley. That's more my opinion than a fact. But keep it in mind as the season progresses and rosters get rearranged.