My new motto regarding the 2006 Bengals: No Sympathy. With their offseason, they really deserve to dissappoint. In fact, if the Browns can manage an early season win over the Bengals, I think the Bengals would be looking at a very dissappointing first month of the season. But it depends more upon Palmer's health than how many players are suspended or in jail.
Today's "I can't wait for training camp" link: Grossi summarizes various predictions for the Browns 2006 season. Hint -- they are getting better but still won't be very good.
Wimbley's agents says negotiating a deal for his client "isn't rocket science." I agree 100%, though I wonder if perhaps an agent shouldn't refrain from mentioning that to a reporter.
If I was a Browns rookie this season I would really want to be signed and and ready for camp. Wimbley and Jackson in particular stand to see a lot of playing time if they are present.
Fantasy preview is on to the AFC South.
HOUSTON TEXANS
I don't think much of the Texans because I don't think much of David Carr. Sure, he's marginally better than Joey Harrington. But when I see him I still don't see a bona fide NFL starter. And that leads to problems for the rest of the offense. This season Eric Moulds joins the Texans and, theoretically, this will help Carr and the offense. I agree, it will help, but not that much. The o-line still can't measure up, Wali Rainer is starting on defense ferchrissakes, and David Carr still sucks.
David Carr might have some decent games. But he's gonna get killed again due to crappy protection and the fact he hangs on to the ball forever. If Andre Johnson stays healthy, though, Carr could be a middle-of-the-pack fantasy scorer, and without any more upside. Which means he is not worth of a draft pick, and I'd argue not worthy of carrying on your roster.
Domanick Davis is a fantasy star. He gets the ball a ton and is a good recevier who often gets the "oh crap" dump off pass from Carr. Also there is no backup to threaten him. He's not a dominant runner and the o-line doesn't help him much, but he's able to do damage, in part, by racking up numbers when the Texans are getting beat up. I do wonder what will happen if the Texans are ever a good team. I don't worry about that in 2006, but with the variations of NFL competitiveness I'd worry enough to draft him as a #2 running back, not as a #1.
Andre Johnson has had some struggles but it still considered very promising. I'd be wary. He sort of has a reputation for being soft, has a bad QB, and the addition of Moulds could cut both ways. Certainly don't draft as a #1 WR, hopefully he's no better than #2 on your roster, and with any luck you can pick him up later as a #3. In fact, John is a fantastic fantasy backup as he is talented enough for some big games. It's just hard to rely on him week after week. I'd say he's a 6th-8th rounder, and somebody else might take him before than and regret it.
Eric Moulds has name rec, but really he's kind of sucked of late. I'm hoping that kills his draft value because I think he's still a good WR. And if you can get him late in the draft he coujld turn out to be your all-important #3 WR who can spot start during bye weeks or man the flex position depending on your league. Or he could suck and you aren't out much.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
They are known as a fantasy candy-store but last year was sort of mixed. Manning had a very good but not great year. Harrison was the same for much of the season. Edgerin James had a nice season but not statistically dominant as some people hoped. Only Reggie Wayne met or exceeded expectations. You have to be careful here -- sure the Colts will be top 10 in respective categories, but you don't want to draft too high. The big change this year is the loss of James. That means, maybe, more passing. And the possibility that a fantasy starter will emerge at RB out of Domanick Rhodes, Joseph Addai or maybe even James Mungro.
Peyton Manning is a stud but he has to have a great year to justify a #1 pick. I don't think he will quite get there. I always thought Manning was great at exploiting a defense that didn't know the Colts were running or passing. Well, this year it seems like the Colts will be passing, particularly early in the year. So while Manning will throw a lot, experience has proven that Manning throws a lot of picks in that situation and often looks very mortal. He'll still put up numbers, but they may not be big ones. A second or third round pick, and you ought to seriously consider if another player is more valuable in those rounds.
Marvin Harrison will still get his. I wouldn't expect a ton of breakout games, but he should get plenty of catches. If you can get him in the 3rd round you ought to be okay. He's low-risk cause he'll get the ball, and even if he has a "bad" season he won't underperform his draft position by much.
Reggie Wayne is a wildcard. I'd be tempted to reshuffle my draft board to pick him early. This might even be the year he outperforms Harrison. I'd say if Harrison goes off the board, wayne will follow within the next 10 picks or so. I'd love to get him as a #2, but that might be hard to manage without some draft-day luck.
Domanick Rhodes is a pretty good RB. But I think we'll see rookie Joseph Addai get a lot of press since he's the highly touted rookie. But Rhodes is a known quantity who has shown he can carry the load when necessary. Unless Addai looks like the starter in camp, I wouldn't be afraid to spend a mid-round pick on Rhodes. The odds are good he could put up fantasy starter numbers, and he'll almost certainly be underestimated on draft-day.
Joseph Addai is intriguing because we know how well a RB can do for the Colts. We'll see. I tend to think James and Faulk were exceptional talents -- and I don't know that Addai really is. If I had to bet now, I'd say Rhodes is a better overall pick. Scooping up Addai as a backup is the sort of move that could pay off big, even if it's more probable it doesn't pay off much at all. I'd try to get him as a #4 RB.
Dallas Clark. Yet another pretty good TE. He's not going to put up eye-popping numbers, but he should certainly get the chance to out-peform his draft slot and maybe crack the top 5.
Brandon Stokley is a good late pickup. He'll probably have the stats to justify the occasional spot start, and an injury could elevate his propsects significantly.
Jim Sorgi. It's become a joke how little this guy has played. But if the Colts become more of a throw-first offense, I think this is the year Manning really sees pressure and is likely to miss time. I don't know if that merits a Sorgi draft pick, but he's worth remembering and probably worth a pick if you have Manning.