DENVER BRONCOS
I still harbor a dislike of the Broncos. And in fantasy football I harbor a dislike of Mike Shanahan because, other than looking like an angry uncle, he has proven to be the bain of fantasy teams everywhere with his RB-by-committee approach. How can a team so consistently productive on offense be so consistently frustrating for fantasy players? It's Shanahan. Anyway... this year the Broncos get Javon Walker and a usual cast of characters at RB. Jake Plummer is still the QB, even though Jay Cutler is now waiting in the wings. The defense should still be solid, despite the fact it will likely start a defensive line composed entirely of ex-Browns Warren, Brown, Myers, and Lang. Amazing. I predict a 9-7 type year, mostly due to Plummer.
Jake Plummer has never been a favorite of mine. He's not that bad, particularly for the first 80% of the season. He could start for you, but he's a better guy to have as a backup. The problem isn't so much Plummer's unpredictable play (though that is a problem), it's that the Bronco's gameplans don't always give him lots of chances to throw. So some weeks you could get nothing. Thus, backup status. And this year, it's possible the playoff beat-down from the Steelers and the drafting of Cutler could affect him.
Javon Walker is a jerk, the new TO, whatever. He paid his karmic price by getting hurt last year. It remains to be seen whether he's still in depth. I think he'll have a very good year because he's a very good football player. Thus, he's a top 10 receiver and I'd rank him just behind a guy like Chad Johnson.
Rod Smith is still playing, and still worth drafting late. You could do far worse when looking for a bye-week replacement than to plug Smith in there. But if he's more than your 5th (ok, maybe 4th in a pinch) receiver, you have problems. You want to remember he's still playing and draft him l-a-t-e.
Ashley Lelie is supposed to get traded. If he doesn't, his value is minimal unless there's an injury. If he does get traded, it will all depend on where he goes. He's even been rumored to go to Cleveland for a guy like Suggs. We'll see. Lelie seems like a headcase and apparently he would not fit in with Javon walker. Whatever the case, Lelie is a decent deep threat and has had some positive moments, but he's still too Quincy Morgan for my tastes. If/when he gets traded he's a 3rd/4th receiver and his potential for good numbers is offset by his attitude.
Tatum Bell supposedly has the inside track to be the starter. He should be the starter, but who knows what Shanahan is doing. Don't draft before round 5. And draft 1-2 sure-thing guys first. Then take a shot if that's your thing. Just remember and expect the starting Broncos RB to suddenly get switched out of the lineup at some point.
Ron Dayne is a very late pick. His upside is limited but does exist. I'd draft more as possible trade ammunition if he has a big game than for anything else.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
They've said goodbye to Dick Vermeil and hello to Herm Edwards. To me, that is a bad sign. Edwards oversaw a bunch of crappy fantasy seasons with the Jets, and the only exceptions were some good seasons by Curtis Martin. There's more talent in KC than in New York. But I have doubts Edwards can keep the air game going well enough to keep defenses from gearing up to stop the run. Besides Edwawrds, the Chiefs seem to be treading water with a slowly aging lineup that that's be not-good-enough for a long time now. For fantasy football think it's reasonable to start wondering when there will be an offensive drop off in KC. Larry Johnson is a stud, but we already know what having a stud RB means in KC.
Larry Johnson is a top 3 pick. He looked that good last year. And he is guaranteed to get the ball a ton behind a very good KC o-line. As far as top picks go, it's a safe one. The only question is whether new coaches and another year will change the opportunities Johnson gets.
Trent Green still is a good director of the offense. I'm more worried about what that offense will look like. Unless Samie Parker suprises, Green only has Gonzalez to throw to. I'm staying away from Green because is upside isn't there and Edwards has brought QBs nothing but bad luck.
Tony Gonzalez is probably the #2 TE behind Gates. But he's no longer a clear cut above the pack. I wouldn't at all be suprised if he doesn't finish in the top 3 in TE scoring. That doesn't mean he isn't the #2 TE in the draft -- but it means you shouldn't burn a 3rd round pick on him anymore. He's more like a 5th or 6th rounder. At that price you'll be happy with his performance even if he isn't carrying your team.
Priest Holmes is reportedly not playing this year. I wouldn't draft him if he was, just because he clearly would be the #2 guy. It's a shame though -- hopefully he's back in '07.
Eddie Kennison puts up okay numbers year after year. He's a nice spot starter and very draftable, but his upside is only as a 3rd WR. So pay accordingly.
Samie Parker is the guy everyone will watch to see if he becomes an impact WR. The Chiefs have needed one for years. I doubt it's Parker. I'd draft late if he falls.
OAKLAND RAIDERS
Had a terrible 2006. They've replaced Kerry Collins with Aaron Brooks, but otherwise the offensive personnel is pretty much the same. I think it's safe to say that this franchise is in disarray and will continue to be until after its owner passes away and, most likely, a few lawsuits are settled. Until then it seems like moves are made without much regard for actually building a franchise. But from such chaos comes reckless play, and from that often comes players putting up stats even while their team sucks. While I'd be hesitant to invest top draft picks in this team, I wouldn't be shy in picking Raiders to flesh out a roster.
Randy Moss is stil a very good receiver, but he dissappointed last year and seems to have lost some focus. Perhaps Kerry Collins was to blame. I do expect Aaron Brooks to help somewhat and for Moss to get more up-for-grabs type balls being thrown his way. But Moss is no longer a second round pick. He's a third rounder, and I would rate him in there with a number of other guys. Still, the raiders may be forced to throw a lot and Moss should at least get a lot of chances.
Aaron Brooks is a fantasy stud compared to Collins. And he could be a great backup-type since he'll definitely have the tools around him to produce big games and is not shy about running for yards. I like him in 2006. The downside is that in real life he sort of sucks and will be prone to inconsistency. And if things go south, he'll be the first guy benched. But if you prefer to think positive, Brooks is a decent play to rack up garbage time stats.
LaMont Jordon was a favorite of mine last season. He didn't really dissappoint, but he didn't score much in the early season. Jordan is a good pick this year. He can run well. And he's a nice receiving threat which really helps his stats even when the ground game is stalled. The problem is that RBs don't usually get the garbage time points. He still a fantasy starter however.
Jerry Porter is finally a viable fantasy prospect after years of being the biggest tease going. He's not a bad guy to take a gamble on, as long as you are prudent and draft Porter along with a host of other possible break-out WRs.
Curry/Gabriel/Whitted are all possible prospects. But none are worthwhile unless there's an injury. Depending on how the Raiders offense looks, one of these guys could come into play and be a contributor fantasy-wise.
Justin Fargas was a hot prospect that didn't do much last year. Don't forget about him in Jordan goes down.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
The Chargers will be pretty interesting. With Rivers taking over at QB there are some definite unknowns. And the WRs look a lot like the Chiefs to me -- somebody has to step up, right? Tomlinson is a top 3 RB. gates is the top TE. And the defense is pretty solid.
LaDainian Tomlinson is a favorite of mine. I like him because he's a great runner, and has become as very good receiver. He'd be the guy I'd pick at the top of a draft, but having Rivers at QB means he could face more 8-man fronts. Basically, Rivers has to play decent for LT to have a monster year.
Phillip Rivers is among the most intriguing QBs this year. He's got no starting experience and looked pretty bad last year in spot duty. But he's had two years on the bench to get ready for the NFL, and he supposedly has the necessary talent. And most importantly, he's got a good team around him that should put h im in position to succeed. I wouldn't draft him as a starter, but I'd draaft him with an eye towards sticking him in my starting lineup if things roll his way. The problem is that until the last couple years Drew Brees didn't put up great numbers in this offense. But I'm willing to bet that with Antonio Gates and LT's ability to take short receptions to the house that Rivers' downside isn't too great. If you can get him as your second QB later in the draft, I think he's worth a gamble.
Antonio Gates has taken over for Tony Gonzalez as the best TE in football. He will probably go in the later 3rd round. I think 4th round is more appropriate, but he'll be gone. Personally, I'm not drafting Gates because there's a lot of promising tight ends who could make some contribution, and Gates does have to deal with a first-year starter at QB. That means there could be some roller-coaster stretches for Gates.
McCardell is not a bad option as a backup 3rd WR. He inevitably will have some big games, lots of solid games, and the occasional disappearing act. The problem is he won't get a lot of TDs. Which means you don't want to start him very often. Draft in the 8th.
Eric Parker is an okay gamble later. You'd be looking for a good backup contributor, which he could emerge as. 10+ round though.
Aaron Shea is a lucky man. He's been a decent receiving TE. He's keeping his career rolling. And now he gets to live it up in San Diego. Shea is not a fantasy factor but I am including him here as a reminder that real life matters too.