Technically, of course, the 2008 regular season has already begun, though that was in Japan's Tokyo Dome, virtually a world away.
But these are my thoughts as the new year is about to begin.
These won't be divisional predictions or that type of thing, as personnel is moreso this writer's obsession. Since it would be inappropriate and unprofessional to pass borrowed knowledge as one's own, it is readily admitted some of what is to follow was at least inspired by sources such as The Sporting News, which published an outstanding preview with its March 24th issue.
On the subject of citing quality work worth examining, be advised that espn.com's Rob Neyer generated a sure-to-be controversial piece March 25 in which he identifies his top 50 MLB prospects for the next five years. Be encouraged to read that work.
And to further postpone the essence of today's entry, let me first dispense with what remains of last year's baseball experience. Call it sour grapes, if you will, but the David Stern influence on professional sport reared its head again last autumn, in this man's opinion. Stern, of course, is the commissioner of the NBA, but his blueprint has been studied and copied by the other professional leagues, apparently.
For example, when was the last time the NBA passed on an opportunity to feature a post-season-deciding seventh game scheduled for national television on a Sunday? I'm too lazy to research it, frankly, but I foresaw the practice being emulated when the Cleveland-Boston series approached its climax last October. The tribe needed to win on Friday, which it entered up three games to one, or the outcome of Saturday's events would be very predictable.
Sure enough, Boston won game five, forcing Fausto Carmona to deal with an extreme case of squeezing. The strike zone became so tiny for the young RHP that Sox hitters benefitted unfairly and undeniably.
Then, too, Cleveland's World Series fate was compromised as soon as the Cubs went down and the Rockies became the NL representative. No way was MLB going to display a Cleveland-Denver series once the Chicago viewers were lost---not when a major East Coast market could be advanced instead.
Though it is acknowledged publishing such commentary threatens what little credibility this site may possess, Carmona's Saturday confrontation against the rickety Curt Schilling turned the series on a playing field that was no longer balanced. There was too much money endangered for the ultimate outcome to be left to competitive determinations.
Moving along, credit the Sox organization for having won with youngsters developed in its own system, excepting a few key components to be discussed later. Jonathon Papelbon, Clay Buchholz, Manny Delcarmen, Jon Lester, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis and Jacoby Ellsbury spent most, if not all, of their maturing days on the Bosox farm.
This was most fortuitous inasmuch as the Sox are otherwise a very old outfit. The mound corps features Mike Timlin (42), Tim Wakefield and Schilling (both now 41). Manny Ramirez and Jason Varitak are 35; Mike Lowell 34. At 32 are David Ortiz, JD Drew, Alex Cora and Julio Lugo. Without that aforementioned infusion of youth, this might be an End-Is-Near campaign.
It is worth noting that the Sox top two bats were signed away from AL Central squads playing in small-to-mid markets: Manny came from Cleveland and Ortiz from Minnesota, who remarkably non-tendered the then- underachieving, position-less slugger. Staff ace Josh Beckett migrated, too. In his case, it was the struggling franchise in Miami that coughed him up. So it should be amply evident the warped economics of baseball conspired to aid the Boston entry.
Looking momentarily to the opposite coast, San Francisco is about to start as sorry a lineup as can be remembered, a direct consequence of having dedicated too much money and too many priorities in deference to the circus act that was Barry Bonds.
Catcher and cleanup batter Bengie Molina returns as the leading RBI man, boasting a modest 81. Randy Winn (.300, 14, 65) is arguably the best all-around threat, so will bat third. In the two-hole will be 40-year-old Omar Vizquel and his NL-lowest .621 OPS, just ahead of 36-year-old 2b Ray Durham's .638. Setting the table for this gaggle of mediocrity will be 35-year-old leadoff guy Dave Roberts, who has two years and $12 mil remaining on his ridiculous contract.
Durham has $7.5 mil coming his way after career lows in batting, OBP and slugging, with his already-diminished range establishing a new standard. On top of all this, one of the organization's few home-grown assets, inf Kevin Frandsen, who figured to open at 3b, was lost for the year with a recent Achilles rupture.
This is a franchise that received only 89 rbi from its cleanup bats last year and can challenge with neither power nor speed. They're also grossly overpaying LHP Barry Zito and CF Aaron Rowand, their last two free-agent acquistions.
Switch-hitting 1b Daniel Ortmeier and AAA OF Nate Schierholtz are the foremost hopes from the neglected farm system, though speedy 2b Eugenio Vasquez could come quickly. GM Brian Sabean might be wise to dangle Omar in front of the Red Sox in hopes they'll exchange Lugo and Coco Crisp for Vizquel and Roberts.
As for Bonds, wouldn't SEA seem to be an ideal relocation? The M's have the rotation and the defense, but lack some LH pop and could easily open the DH slot by moving former 2b Jose Vidro to RF, where currently a Brad Wilkerson/Mike Morse platoon prevails.
What would be remarkable would be witnessing the impact Bonds' celebrity would have on the delicate ego of the overrated Ichiro Suzuki. John McCarren is the second consecutive Mariner manager, following Mike Hargrove, to ask more from Ichiro, specifically in the areas of base-stealing and run-production. Heretofore, the Japanese big shot has preferred to reside in a comfort zone that does not concern itself with what is necessarily best for his team.
Did you realize Ichiro has not had a 30-double season since his 2001 rookie year? For comparison's sake, then Washington National platooning RF Ryan Church managed 43 last season.
As for the Nats, switch-hitting 1b Dmitri Young figures to be relocating fairly soon, perhaps by the time this entry is submitted. Nick Johnson has returned from injury to reclaim the position Young occupied last season and is better in all phases of the sport, especially on defense. Young can no longer factor as an OF, so he's probably in search of a DH-needy outfit.
Young and injured Diamondbacks LH 3b/1b Chad Tracy (microfracture knee surgery) are two vets SF should consider, incidentally. Both are clutch, understated and quality batsmen.
What is fascinating is that both of last season's Comeback Players of the Year were Detroit 1b castoffs: Young in the NL and Tampa's Carlos Pena for the AL. Ironically, Detroit now claims both of the respective leagues' defending batting titlists: Magglio Ordonez hit .363---while achieving .374 with RISP over the past three seasons---while Edgar Renteria stroked .332 for Atl. Has that ever happened before?
On the subject of former Det 1b, whatever happened to Chris Shelton? How could a RH bat that used the whole field and concentrated on merely making contact disappear from the scene? Hadn't he fueled the 2006 Detroit AL title?
San Diego is a club that has gotten a great deal of mileage from AL discards. 1b Adrian Gonzalez, c Josh Bard, 3b Kevin Kouzmanoff and All-Star RHP Chris Young are strong examples. Where would that club be without that quartet? OF Jody Gerut and the positionless Justin Huber came aboard this week, doubtlessly hoping to mimic their successes. Though most of their stellar careers have been in the NL, OFs Brian Giles and Jim Edmonds also started in the AL.
Brian's brother Marcus, who played 2b for both Atl and SD, was released by Colorado and is currently unemployed.
Baltimore is another organization that is again rebuilding and might be wise to liquidate a few of its aged assets. 3b Melvin Mora and 1b Kevin Millar are both 36 and more appropriate for a veteran contender. Were Minn able to deliver to the O's Rockies backup SS Clint Barmes and a RH DH---like recent Ranger discard Nelson Cruz, for example---the makings of a respectable exchange would exist.
The Twins are gambling vet Mike Lamb will field well enough to handle 3b, apparently resisting the urge to return RF Michael Cuddyer to the hot corner (though finding a corner OF bat is easier to find than a strong-hitting 3b). Mora would be better than either there, adding a higher average, better table-setting skills and base-running speed. Millar would make a nice DH platooner for Lamb, though Kevin hit but .236 with RISP for Balt last season.
Adding both Mora and Millar to the Twins' lineup would surely help negate the losses of Torii Hunter and Johan Santana, as Cuddyer, Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer, Delmon Young, platooners Craig Monroe/Jason Kubel and Lamb present the promise of a respectable offense.
Baltimore, for its part, might make a nice new home for Cleveland 3b Andy Marte. In OFs Adam Jones and Nick Markakis, the O's have the beginnings of a core. A comeback from Aubrey Huff would help.
Extending the concept of matching expendable solutions with new employers, LA's Juan Pierre should be sent to StL, not only to open the Dodgers' OF corners for Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp, but to provide Tony LaRussa's squad a much-needed speed threat for CF and leadoff.
Otherwise, StL should look hard into acquiring Angels' spare parts Juan Rivera and Kendry Morales. As TSN reports: "This is shaping up to be a disastrous season in St. Louis."
LA's OFs, by the way, combined to hit only 35 homers last season, helping to make the argument for the signing of former Brave Andruw Jones and the installation of both Kemp and Ethier. Pierre, who would move to LF for LA with Jones' arrival, not only has no power, but his arm invites runners to take liberties.
Houston's Carlos Lee ranks up there with Pierre among dubious LFs. TSN describes him as "the worst LF in the NL... his weight is going up." With that the case, perhaps Cecil Cooper should've investigated Lee's prospects as a 1b, returning Lance Berkman to the OF. Then again, Cooper was an outstanding glove at first base and may prefer compromising D in the OF rather than in the infield.
Another organization that should've experimented with a LF's conversion to 1b is the Yankees, especially with the knee difficulties Hideki Matsui is experiencing. Johnny Damon has taken over LF anyway, and Matsui would seemingly require no time at all to exceed what Jason Giambi can do at first---a remarkable truth given that Giambi came up in Oak as a 3b. NY would be better off were Matsui and Giambi able to keep one another fresh by sharing 1b/dh duties.
It had been thought Oak would benefit from signing veteran utility man Chris Woodward, as their order is heavy with LH bats and Woodward would present a potent RH platoon option, while protecting at possibly seven positions. Instead, the Yankee castoff settled on a minor-league deal with Phila.
NY evidently decided to reconstruct their bench around veterans, testing not only Woodward but Astro castoffs Morgan Ensberg (3b) and Jason Lane (OF/1b). All are RH bats with some power. SF possibly looked into signing all three---or at least should have.
The Yanks might be wise to soon install 2b Robinson Cano as its new leadoff guy, moving the declining Damon to the ninth hole, where he could reset the order. Cano is one of the few homegrown Yankee regulars, though the rotation will feature rookies Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy, and is a rising star of the first degree. Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada and Melky Cabrera are other positional regulars who've played their entire careers in pinstripes.
NY is a slow, aged collection that could precipitously decline this year, unless its few youngsters can energize and sustain their customary excellence.
Since mention has often been made of TSN's quality information, it might interest to mention the mag ranks Indians' castoff Brandon Phillips the 15th-best fantasy player in all of baseball this year. Now Cinn's cleanup hitter and only its second-ever 30/30 guy, Phillips is considered superior to any Cleveland performer, including 24th-ranked Grady Sizemore.
Don't be stunned if KC finally gives up on pedestrian CF David DeJesus. That club is finally constructing a solid core, but DeJesus has heretofore failed to properly set the table or ignite the operation as the leadoff piece. With the attack already compromised by the necessities of catcher John Buck and SS Tony Pena, the Royals need more than the streaky DeJesus has characteristically provided. Joey Gathright is an option, certainly, but lanky lefty Mitch Maier has the look of a real comer.
It is too bad Mike Sweeney---17 years a Royal but now in Oak---simply broke down too regularly, as he'd otherwise seem an ideal fit among the young and talented KC bats. Instead, KC felt compelled to replace him with oft-troublesome OF Jose Guillen. His fit would seem to be questionable. He'll be asked to fill the cleanup slot and balance an otherwise LH-heavy order, coming off a 99 rbi year with Seattle.
KC's lineup last season managed an MLB-low 102 homers.
Another KC stunner was their designation of LH starter Jorge De la Rosa, who'd look better in Cleveland's pen than Aaron Fultz' replacement Craig Breslow. De la Rosa performed very well against lefties (and the Tribe) last year, losing one complete game to them 1-0 on a Franklin Gutierrez HR. He's going to help someone.
In fact, the biggest fear is that Detroit will address its dubious pen with a piece like De la Rosa and/or Pirate southpaw Damaso Marte, an individual I feel may become the number-one most impactful in-season difference-maker. Marte is death to lefty bats and has often tormented the Tribe. Cleveland should do business with its former front-office executive Neil Huntington, now the Pittsburgh GM, if only to keep Marte from joining one of its AL rivals.
What Huntington must do is improve the Pirates drafting. Recent number-one picks Andrew McCollough (CF) and Jonathan Van BenSchotten (RHP) have yet to emerge for their perenially-needy varsity, further retarding organizational progress. It has been 15 years since last the Pirates had a winning record. They have averaged fewer than 70 wins over the last five seasons.
What is more, Pitts lacks LH pop, especially in the lower half of their order, seeming to need someone to at least platoon at 3b or in a corner OF spot. They could also use a big-time table-setter at leadoff, though they might have found that piece in younster Nyjer Morgan. In the meantime, it's Nate McLouth in for the injured Chris Duffy, flanked by Jason Bay and Xavier Nady in an uninspiring OF cast.
At the other end of the spectrum, Ariz figures to have as good a threesome at the top of their rotation as any in all of baseball, so long as the 44-year-old Randy Johnson has something to offer. Dan Haren arrived from Oak to join Brandon Webb atop the Diamondbacks' staff. With kids Chris Young, Conor Jackson, Mark Reynolds, Stephen Drew and Justin Upton merely scratching the surfaces of their considerable potentials, this may be a frightening organization for years to come.
It is headed by another GM (Josh Byrnes) who polished his craft under Cleveland's Mark Shapiro, as is NL champion Colorado (Dan O'Dowd).
TSN ranks AL teams as its five best in its inaugural power poll, with NL clubs occupying slots 6-11, as well as four of the final six. Sizemore is its pre-season AL MVP, with Colo's Matt Holiday the NL favorite.
On the other hand, the magazine discloses some distressing stats relative to Tribe DH Travis Hafner, who once was thought to be slump-proof by this observer. Hafner's batting average dropped 42 points and his slugging percentage fell a whopping 208 points last year, while he hit only .224 with RISP.
What also concerns is the Tribe's being heavy with slow-footed, station-to-station, largely RH types 5-9 in their current order. Though he is coming off two straight injury-marred campaigns and makes way too much for any team to welcome, Oak LH 3b Eric Chavez might come available as relief for that condition. The A's are definitely going young, are in need of RH power and might be willing to absorb some of Chavez' contract, along with kid 3b Andy Marte.
The downside is Chavez is on the books for about $14 mil/yr. and had both shoulders and his back operated on during the off season. Should he regain his relative health, he is also a gold-glover, a great clubhouse guy and a tough out.
To end on a more encouraging note, the Chicago White Sox, Cleveland's opposition during the opening week, ranked last in the AL in batting average, on-base percentage and runs scored last year. Their BA was last in all of baseball.
To that mix, however, they experienced the additions of some quality influences in RH setup man Scott Linebrink, SS Orlando Cabrera---arguably Anaheim's MVP, a very inspirational leader---OF Nick Swisher, another real gamer, and Cuban defector Alexi Ramirez, who can play multiple positions but may open at 2b. These are indicators that the team realizes it is old, sliding and in need of immediate infusions. Jose Contreras is about cooked. Mark Buehrle may begin to manifest wear after seven straight seasons of pitching more than 200 innings. And their D does not impress.
Whomever it is you root for, enjoy the 2008 MLB campaign. Imagine how much better things would be if the economic inequities of the sport were corrected ---and the purity of its competitors' blood assured. As with most of the projections this entry contains, these are but one fan's fantasies.