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Mark Leonard

  • Hoping Lebron learned a lesson last night

    I'll begin by saying I still believe the Cavaliers will be the team to eliminate the Celtics this NBA post-season. I feel the team has what it takes and that Boston's personnel will not rise to the level of performance they have needed in order to push aside the Cleveland contingent in the last two of their three series wins.

    It is accepted that Cleveland allowed Game One to escape them. The Boston bench bunch stunned the Cavs in Game Two, which was a contest the visitors led healthily before allowing the lead and the game to get away---which, of course, is what it also permitted yesterday in Game Five.

    Rajon Rondo and Kevin Garnett will not reproduce what marksmanship they managed, so critical to last night's outcome. They both rose magnificently to the occassion last evening, spurred on by their home crowd, joining them in refusing to lose.

    But that is not why the Cavaliers lost. For that, look at Lebron James.

    I know it is sacrilege to criticize James, who is undoubtedly a superb athlete, a regional gem, one of the sport's---anywhere in recent professional sports!---most gifted talents. This is about a singular aspect of James' play, and it is not about his free-throw shooting, either.

    James needs to resist becoming overly impressed with his own considerable virtuoso capabilities. He needs to better trust his supporting cast. He needs to quit freezing-out his mates. He needs to think back to how his hero Michael Jordan began winning titles once he entrusted the Steve Kerrs, John Paxsons and BJ Armstrongs---even in critical contests and situations.

    In team sport---and I know Lebron knows this, evidenced by the many outstanding assist games he has had---one must trust one's teammates. One's success is dependent upon them. The games the 2007-2008 Cavs have played especially well are those in which the role players were maximized and allowed full expression of their own potentials.

    One is not trusting one's mates only when one needs them urgently, as might apply to that late occassion when Wally was granted a token three-point attempt from the right corner. Naturally, he missed it. Rare (Damon Jones?) are the guys who can go quarters without a touch but deliver with a 3 when it is desperately required.

    For a shooter---be it Wally, or Z, Sasha or Daniel Gibson---to be denied active participation by someone electing to instead monopolize the ball himself, as if he did not believe the others were capable of helping him, is comparable to being treated with disdain only to be suddenly expected to rescue everyone when times are toughest. It doesn't work that way, as anyone who has experienced such treatment on a basketball court can attest. This is particularly difficult for someone coming to a new outfit mid-year.

    When a key teammate is showing deficient confidence in you, it is very difficult to remain confident in yourself. Without a requisite level of self-confidence, most athletes will struggle to achieve, much less to excel.

    A team leader brings out the best in his mates. That Lebron did not come close to winning the MVP speaks volumes about his widely-perceived shortcomings in this area. As benevolent and sharing as he can be, he nonetheless seems overly-consumed with feeling it is he alone who can deliver the franchise and its fortunes.

    This is why I cringed so much yesterday, hearing too many voices calling for a bust-out performance from the team's superstar. It is not an individual's achievements that win championships, especially against the caliber opponent one is going to see in the latter rounds of post-season play. 

    Z had five shots, despite proving to be a very difficult matchup for the Green all series long. Wally had eight points in the first quarter, but totalled only eight shots on the entire evening. Gibson had four shots. James had but five assists.

    So you don't think this is just one "hater's" rant, listen to what Ray Allen had to say after the game. "We did a good job of recognizing when he (James) was gonna score and when he was gonna pass...(the game turned for us) when we began to make the extra pass."

    Everyone identifies the clutch and much-needed pair of threes hit by Rondo just before the half as integral to Boston's resurrection, opportunities afforded him despite his being but 5-for-19 on such shots all season long. One has to wonder: "Would James have even allowed Rondo a touch in such a situation, his team down double-figures and very much in need of points?" I'm guessing he would not have. Why? Because he's characteristically denied so many of those who'd helped fuel Cleveland's last two wins over the Celts in the Q.

    I think Ray Allen and his mates sensed James would elect, instead, to try matching Boston's offensive exploits with wondrous creations of his own. Sometimes, James succeeds; sometimes he doesn't. We all saw that ill-advised hoist from the top of the key during one of Boston's third-quarter runs. We've seen too many of these over the years with James, too many of them part of Cavalier losses. We've rarely seen the club fail when James involves his mates for a full four quarters.

    At this point, a writer might interrupt himself to apologize for daring to take to task so marvelous an athlete as James, less he be accused of encouraging him to leave town for New York, New Jersey, Miami or some other distant, big-market enterprise. I'll not do that. This is not about disparaging James or his play.

    This is about hoping he learned a lesson last night. If he is going to win it all, as he says he intends to, he is going to have to learn to trust his teammates---not only most of the time, but all  of the time, especially when it matters most.

    Last night's contest was a winnable ballgame, as were the other two lost to Boston. Conversely, the Celts cannot say the same about their two losses in Cleveland. The Cavs can---and I believe will---win this series, making history Sunday in Game Seven. They are capable of outplaying Boston and showing them matchups they cannot overcome.

    But being forced to stand around and watch their incredibly-gifted mega-star relegate them to bystanders is not going to enable the rest of the Cavs to get it done, but will create more nights like last night, when the rebounds and loose balls landed in the paws of the opposition.

    As NBA analyst Tim Legler contributed last evening: "None of the other Cavs were in rhythm; it was all Lebron all the time."

    Many blame the head coach. Perhaps they should. Then again, perhaps it is the superstar who overrides what is instructed. I don't know nor do I need to. I only know the club's best chance of eliminating the NBA squad with the best regular-season record is by attacking them en masse, as a team, from all directions.

    It would also help if everyone made their free throws, too.

    --------------

    Speaking of fouls, contrary to what was opined on the radio waves this morning, it is not believed the referees necessarily rendered judicious treatment to the visitors on the victor's court, though the Cavs shot 41 free throws to Boston's 23. Many were the times a Cavalier was fouled hard on the body during a drive to the hoop without a whistle. How could what Kevin Garnett did to flatten Delonte West during a fourth-quarter drive go without consequence?

    What is more, Boston was most evidently fouling with deliberation. How else could PJ Brown merit four calls in fewer than eight minutes? Big Baby Davis had three in eleven, though some of that is rookie clumsiness. Boston fouled to prevent layups, to send a message, to put wear on the Cavs and to require the visitors to earn their points on the line, confident they could and would not. They won because of it.

    -------------------

    Onto a pair of non-basketball items.

    The absence from OTA's by Browns' TE Kellen Winslow, Jr. is entirely insignificant, inasmuch as he'd be unable to participate anyway, with yet another operation having occurred on his oft-troublesome right knee.

    That is not revelation material, of course. It has been clearly reported elsewhere.

    It is brought up to say Winslow has little ground upon which to stand should it be he does, in fact, intend to clamor for a new contract. He has openly admitted he will never be what he might have been had he not caused injury to himself attempting to master the motorcycle---precisely the type of off-the-field behavior standard NFL contracts prohibit, for precisely that reason.

    Since he is, therefore, providing even less than what is was he was drafted to do and doing it less athletically than he admits he would have, it is disingenuous, hypocritical and most assuredly self-serving to argue he should be paid more. It is as if he were saying: "Though I'm giving you less than I once could and will never be what it was you dealt-up in Round One to acquire, I should be paid more than you've already contracted to pay me."

    Hey, it's not my money. The Browns are smart enough to know all of this themselves. They can do as they wish. But these are my thoughts on the matter.

    It matters not that Kellen has worked very hard. He should. Professionals do that. It is what they are paid so handsomely to do. It matters not that his numbers have been very impressive, resulting in two consecutive Pro-Bowl caliber campaigns. That is also what he was drafted for and is being paid to do. It also matters not that the young man may have a self-imposed abbreviation on his once-promising career. Winslow did that to himself when he decided to go his own way in regard to the motorcycle purchase and subsequent escapades.

    To expect to be paid more for being less is simply absurd and ridiculous.

    Lastly, on a baseball-related subject, refer to page 37 in this week's Sporting News. There, in a piece titled "Inside Dish," Sean Devaney (presumably) writes: "The chief concern about Indians DH Travis Hafner isn't so much his poor batting average. It's his inability to generate power. 'You can see him pulling off the ball way too much,' says one scout. 'There's no way he can drive outside pitches.' Indeed, Hafner, a lefty, has hit better against lefthanded pitching than righthanders. It would be wrong, though, to blame Cleveland's offensive woes on Hafner---every regular other than C Victor Martinez and CF Grady Sizemore is hitting under .250."

     

  • Tolerate numbers? These speak for themselves

    Having tracked the batting stats being compiled by the Cleveland Indians' AAA lineup in Buffalo, it seems time to share a few. After all, what the big-league club has been doing offensively has been somewhat distressing and often the most immediate remedies are in-house at the upper levels of an organization.

    That being the case, below are the primary contributors representing in the American Association, those presumably most ready to provide assistance at the MLB level, should they be needed. To bring perspective to interpretations, bear in mind .330 is a respectable OBP, with .370 or above elite. Anything below .310 is not good. As for strikeouts/walk ratio, these should be nearly one-to-one. These categories being specifically defined say a lot about plate discipline---or lack thereof, though biasing your assessments is not the desire.

    Herr          133 AB    5 doubles   5 homers      22 rbi       39 K    8 BB   .271 BA   .315 OBP  (11 errors)

    Sandoval  120           6                0                   8             16       12        .267         .333

    Gonzalez  106           8                4                  18            31       21        .255          .383

    Barfield    161           8                4                  14            35        9         .255          .297

    Cooper     88            8                3                  16            25       11        .250          .352

    Mulhern   112           6                3                  13            32       15        .250          .339

    Snyder     111           8               4                  17            33         9         .216          .279

    Toregas    96            5               1                   13            19       10        .198           .280

    Brown     96            11               0                  10            12         8        .271           .333

    Aubrey    41             4                0                   5               4         3        .341           .386

     (at AA) 103           10               2                  16            12         8         .282           .330

    As for prominent Akron (AA) batsmen:

    Hodges  130            5               7                  31             27        10        .277           .333

    Whitney 133           10              3                    9             30          9        .233           .297

    Goleski  111            2               3                    8             28        14        .233           .320

    Gimenez  80            6               3                    9             18         22        .275          .427

     

    It should be noted that both Ryan Goleski and Matt Whitney were recently Rule 5 losses returned to the system. Goleski was the top-overall selection prior to 2007 and dealt to the A's, where he was unable to stick. Whitney was with the Nationals this spring. Brian Barton, also lost this past off-season in Rule 5 (while the organization instead chose to humanely protect LHR Juan Lara, who unfortunately was badly injured in an auto accident), is still with the Cardinals, though his average has fallen precipitously with increasingly irregular use.

    On the subject of former Tribesmen, which is appropriate given the damage done last night to Oakland's Alan Embree and Andrew Brown, it should be mentioned that Jody Gerut is again a big-leaguer, having been recalled by San Diego and installed into CF and the leadoff role. The Pads have struggled to defend their spacious home outfield and have also moved Brian Giles (.266) from leadoff to third in hopes of igniting run production. Kevin Kouzmanoff, nabbed in exchange for Josh Barfield, is still the SD 3b, hitting .273 out of the five hole.

    Barton's .268 has been a surprisingly strong assistance to StL's amazing start, but not nearly as profoundly as has been Ryan Ludwick's .336, particularly given his 8 dingers and 24 rbi. No longer strictly a platooner, Ludwick is an everyday RF now, a development that has lessened Barton's participation.

    Texas' OF/DH Milton Bradley is at .311 with 20 rbi, six homers and a sore shoulder. Ramon Vasquez is a .344 sub with the Rangers. The guy he survived as the Tribe's middle-infield reserve, Brandon Phillips, is hitting .282 with 7 homers and 18 rbi as Cinn's cleanup bat. Sean Casey went into Tuesday's play at .346 for Boston, with a .424 OBP in 52 ABs, while teammate Coco Crisp is at .315. Manny Ramirez, who should never have been allowed to escape his original organization, is at .309.

    Baltimore is being aided significantly by Luke Scott's .281, featuring two dingers and 13 rbi out of RF. RHS Jeremy Guthrie is 2-3 with a 4.18 for the O's, who have turned to journeyman speedster Freddie Bynum at SS. Conversely, Julian Tavarez was designated by Boston. And Jim Thome is flailing at .214 for the Chisox. Jeff Kent is at .250 with 19 rbi for the Dodgers.

    Having only a small sample size of AB's upon which to base their play, Omar is at .400 for SF and being rumored heading to Boston, where Alex Cora, job-sharing SS with the error-prone Julio Lugo, is hitting .600. Luis Rivas is at .224 for the Pirates, who have been using veteran 1b Doug Mienkiewicz some at 3b, by the way.  Wily Tavares carries a .234 for Colo.

    Ryan Church is tearing it up for the Mets, behind a .324 with 8 homers and 30 rbi, also out of RF. SS Maicer Izturis, who accompanied Church to Mont years ago for LHR Scott Stewart, is on Anaheim's DL.     

    What is truly remarkable, however, is that both Tampa and Florida are first-place ballclubs at this writing, with identical 23-16 marks, tied with the Cubs for second-best in all of baseball to Arizona's 24-15. For those attached to big-name athletes, an inspection of their respective lineups would be illuminating, spiced as they are by retreads, discards and no-names like Dan Uggla (a Rule 5 selection from Ariz), Jorge Cantu, Eric Hinske, Carlos Pena, Luis Gonzalez, Cody Ross, Cliff Floyd, Gabe Gross, Wes Helms, et al.

    Could the Marlins really be heading toward their third title since the Tribe was but one out away from its first since 1948?

    Also astonishing is the research cited by former Mets' GM Steve Phillips this morning on ESPN's Mike and Mike program. He says the sport is down nearly a thousand homers over the past two seasons, given the current pace. Phillips attributes the drop off to more closely monitoring performance enhancers. "Doubles and triples are also down significantly," he said, resulting in greater parity achieved by those clubs able to execute small-ball. Mentioned were the Rays, A's, Twins in contrast with the Tigers. The game was down about 500 homers last year, with a similar decline again developing this season. An ironic announcement in the wake of the new Barry Bonds indictments. But remarkable all by itself.

    That same program credits Houston's Lance Berkman with 25 hits in his last 38 AB over a ten-game stretch. Yeow! That's hot.

    Procrastination cost me the opportunity to opine with timeliness on this count, but I'd thought Miquel Cabrera's acquisition by Det might be negated by Gary Sheffield's possible decline. Sheff, also mentioned in the Balco investigation and coming off shoulder surgery at 38, is at .202, while Tigers' castoff Craig Monroe is helping Minn with his .274.

    Bringing this entry to a merciful close, one must remark upon the incredible campaign being had by Boston's Kevin Youkilis, as if Cleveland-area fans need to be reminded what a pain he can be. Kevin, through Sunday, was at .322, with 27 runs, 30 rbi, 8 homers and 12 doubles---each ranking him among the AL's top four in a respective category. Who'da thunk he'd surpass both Manny and Popi as the Sox foremost slugger? With Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia also among league leaders in meaningful categories, it is apparent Boston has done more than just cherry-pick stars mid-market teams were unable to retain---though that business cannot be overstated whatsoever.

    Meanwhile, that is a former Red Sox farmhand pacing the Marlins and recently rewarded with his mega-contract. SS Hanley Ramirez is receiving acknowledgement around the sport as possibly the NL's top talent, based upon his .336 average, 33 runs, 13 steals and inspriring all-around excellence, both in play and in spirit.

    Conversely, Pitts is at 19-20 despite outstanding numbers being put up by OFs Xavier Nady (.338, 34 rbi, 14 doubles) and Nate McLouth (.305, 31 runs, 10 home runs, 31 rbi, 13 steals). LHR Damaso Marte, who I still suspect may be the number-one in-season AL Central acquisition, has 7 holds.  

  • Tribe just hours from quartermark

    Cleveland Indians GM Mark Shapiro is inclined to identifying the 40-game mark of a given season as the initial point at which assessments of a team may be legitimately made. Anything deduced earlier than that is reactionary, perhaps, illusion at the worst. Rash, at least.

    Weather permitting, the 2008 campaign should arrive at that specific junction by the end of this day, with today's Toronto doubleheader registering games 39 and 40.

    Having won six of its last ten, the club is currently at .500, its 18 wins accompanied by as many losses. Some very recent outbursts have served to somewhat obscure what has been a horrible first half offensively, with almost every player responsible for a share of those difficulties.

    The team is last among the 14 AL clubs in triples and total bases, the latter distinction by a whopping 21 bags. It ranks 13th in BA and slugging percentage, eleventh in doubles and steals, tenth in homers and ninth in both walks and rbi. Amazingly, it is but a half-game out of first in its division. Not so amazingly, only five AL outfits have more K's.

    Among regulars, only catcher Victor Martinez has an average worth boasting about (an AL-leading .346), but he has yet to homer, has scored only 8 runs and driven in an extremely modest 14, given the average and his being situated in the cleanup role. Some of that can be attributed to his hamstring woes, but moreso it is attributable to deficient table-setting in front of him and protection behind him.

    In fact, the customary five-hole designee is 8th on the team in rbi despite being 3rd in ABs and tied for first in homers. So sporadic has been that man's run production that he is tied in rbi (13) with a teammate (David Dellucci) having 29 fewer AB. That player is also second on the club in strike outs, last in OBP, ninth in doubles---where he is tied by someone having 95 fewer at bats---and scarsely ahead of only two regulars in BA.

    This player is, of course, Jhonny Peralta. Credit the PD's Terry Pluto with revealing that Peralta, hitting .216 overall, is but .209 vs. RHP and .143 with RISP.

    In utmost deference to Shapiro's standard for patience, it is time to ask: "Why is this guy still a starter? Why is he so regularly in the five-hole? Why is he considered a core piece? Why is he not being shipped elsewhere in exchange for something with upside?"

    Credit, too, Manager Eric Wedge with finally sitting the guy again for Game One and for saying, in the Sunday Plain Dealer: "From a discipline standpoint, he's played long enough (You're telling me!) where he understands what he needs to do to be successful and what gets him into trouble." Also in his Indians Insider, beat reporter Paul Hoynes paraphrases Wedge as indicating he would like to see more consistency at the plate from Peralta.

    I beg to differ. It would seem Peralta has been quite consistent indeed. What he is is ill-equipped. What is happening is he's being mis-employed. He's clearly not a five-hole bat, nor is he deserving of core-piece consideration. It should not have required 40 games to conclude this much, either.

    What is more is Peralta sat and witnessed, as did  thousands of Tribe fans, what playing SS at the MLB level should look like. During Saturday's contest, second-year man Asdrubal Cabrera was permitted to perform at his native position and executed at least three stellar defensive plays that Peralta quite likely would never have converted into outs, as each required the shortstop to go deep into the hole and throw across his body while on the run to edge a Toronto batsman. Though Jhonny has one of the game's better infield arms, he lacks the range, body control and quickness to match what Cabrera displayed on those three grounders.

    It had to have occurred to everyone watching, Peralta included, that the club might be far better served---particularly inasmuch as it is so conspicuously constructed around its starting pitching---were it to henceforth feature Cabrera as its everyday shortstop.

    Though this is a thought articulated by many, this writer included, dating back to Cabrera's emergence late last summer, it remains the company line that "Peralta's bat is needed in the lineup." This perspective was echoed dutifully, in fact, by a host on the club's cable production typically preceding television broadcasts.

    Is it really so that this organization is beholden to someone with such horrific offensive numbers, particularly when they come attached to a player who remains undisciplined in the box, can't run and displays less-than-average major-league SS range? Are those aforementioned numbers really those of an indispensible component part?

    Is this not the same guy who has yet to have an 80-rbi campaign? What is the fascination with this player?

    It had been proposed, at the start of the off-season and again before spring training, that Peralta be converted to 2b, where similarly over-sized middle-infielders (Bobby Grich, Jeff Kent, et al) have gravitated and succeeded due to lessened range requirements. Third base was also mentioned, as the organization is seemingly without succession behind Casey Blake, a reality that resulted in his $6 million contact and the retention of Andy Marte.

    Alas, neither option was/has been pursued.

    What is offered as defense of that resistance has been the nonsensical argument perpetrated by Shapiro and inexplicably embraced and echoed by certain media cronies. It holds that Peralta's anticipated offensive potential at SS (as well Victor's at catcher and Grady's in CF) is needed to negate what is being sacrificed at the traditional power spots in the corners of both the infield and the outfield---as if the arrangements were mutually-exclusive. (Why must it be either one or the other? Cannot it be both instead of either?)

    In other words, just because you possess offense at traditionally non-offensive positions does not mean you must not have offense at the traditional corner spots.

    It is furthermore absurd because both Cabrera and Peralta would still appear in the regular lineup, even if Jhonny moved to 2b and Asdrubal at SS? The offensive contributors would be identical but the D would be enhanced.

    One must deduce the organization is really saying it is desirous of preserving Peralta's maximum value, something that might be compromised were Jhonny to become a 2b or 3b. But shouldn't present success be the priority over potential liquidation value? The front office can't truly believe it is better all-around continuing to invest in Peralta as its SS, when a clearly superior defensive option exists in-house?

    Even should it be the brass was protecting itself against Cabrera's being an aberration, wouldn't adding SS depth been wiser than maintaining the status quo?

    Therefore, there must be something about what is needed from a 2b that Peralta lacks. Certainly, his arm would be an asset on the dp. It must be the turn he can't perform.  

    The aforementioned Pluto, in his Sunday notes column, wrote: "When some tribe fans want a major trade, they usually suggest dealing veteran players they don't like. But that does not happen because other teams have scouts and televisions, too."

    On the surface, this too seems to hold some merit. But it might also be said the Cleveland organization cannot have it both ways. A regular who possesses no marketability whatsoever should not be someone playing almost daily, much less in the five hole, as if his presence were essential to the team's contention.

    If it is to be assumed true that such a player is integral to whatever winning might be had, how could it be he'd have no market value were liquidation investigated?

    Peralta should be believable in a conversation to acquire a future 3b, then, right?

    It must be acknowledged, however, that Cabrera (.194) is one of only two starters---much-maligned DH Travis Hafner (.215) is the other---hitting less well than Peralta's .216. But Cabrera has only two fewer rbi in 18 fewer ABs. And it is not Asdrubal who immediately follows Martinez' excellent OBP in the batting order.

    Particularly inasmuch as JP is second on the club in total bases and has enjoyed such favorable designation in the order, Peralta's production should be bearing far more fruit. He simply is not a quality run producer. It is a mistake to expect him to perform as one, a judgment for which Shapiro and Wedge are responsible. 

    Now that 40 games are nearly in the book, perhaps the brass is ready to acknowledge the errors it has made relative to Peralta's employment---both in the field and at the plate. He's been remarkably overrated heretofore---or he is woefully under-achieving.

    As that sentence was written, Cabrera just turned yet another play Peralta could only dream of, ranging far to his left to snag a Blue Jay grounder behind second to begin a double-play with a glove-flip to Jamey Carroll.

    It would seem this entry is holding Peralta primarily responsible for the Indians' 2008 offensive struggles, as well as their inability to parlay superb starting pitching into some significant distance between themselves and their AL Central competitors. To be clear, it is moreso the decision-makers who are to blame.

    Shapiro may be the reigning MLB Executive of the Year and Wedge the Manager of the Year, but theirs has not been stellar foresight. Peralta's persistance in their plans as exclusively a SS, as well as his reliance as a meat-of-the-order run-producer, are not their only failings. Choosing to invest in a LF platoon of Dellucci and the now-departed Jason Michaels is another. There is a litany of other evidence, involving names like Marte, Phillips, Guthrie, Chuch, Scott, Izturis, Tavares, et al. What they are able to do about remediation moving forward is truly the question.

    For example, how married will they remain to Ryan Garko at 1b? He's apparently not potent enough to utilize fifth between Victor and Travis. He is another who cannot run and---again crediting Pluto---is at .195 vs. RHP. He's unremarkable defensively, despite his dedication to hard work, except to be horrid on pop-ups nearing the stands. What is more, he currently road-blocks the only two genuine bat prospects at Buffalo, where 4-A types predominate again.

    Those candidates are lefties Michael Aubrey (.345) and Jordan Brown, the organization's top minor-leaguer two years running. Especially since he is finally healthy---after appearing in only 243 games in the past five years---the suddenly-26-year-old former number-one pick Aubrey could be the beneficiary of what has begun with the promotion of vet OF Jason Tyner.

    Tyner, a non-roster spring invitee, replaces the too-seldom-used RHR Tom Mastny, at least until Jeremy Sowers is recalled for a May 19th start in Cinn. (Credit Hoynes for this, too, as well as for the Aubrey numbers.) Tyner's arrival signals a departure from the 12-pitchers/13 position guys composition as to the 25-man roster. It could be Tyner (or 3b Andy Marte) will become designated to open a spot for Sowers' return. After the LHP's start, it could be Aubrey who inherits the roster spot, possibly in at least a 1b platoon with Garko.

    Admittedly, the more likely scenario would elevate the rehabbing LH OF Shin-Soo Choo, though he is not a 1b and would be wasted athletically to become one.  

    What might eventually evolve is a late-summer package involving Garko and RHP Paul Byrd. By that time, Jake Westbrook would be back and re-entered into the rotation. Other clubs would be even more acutely aware of their need for a vet starter like Paul, an $8 mil/yr. commodity entering the final months of his contract.

    With CC, Fausto, Jake, Cliff and Laffey available, and Sowers, Adam Miller (wishful thinking?) and Brian Slocum in the pipeline, Byrd and/or Garko could present the brass with something of value to exchange for a possibly-needed bat.

    That is why it should be understood Ben Francisco and Choo have about two months' time to demonstrate they can be in-house solutions for an ailing offense. Testing Aubrey during that interim might also be astute, advisable and precautionary. 

    It has been the first 40-games, the quartermark, that have suggested much of this. The next 40 figure to more completely tell the tale of the season in general. Here is hoping the front office does not continue its ill-advised posture of standing pat. There are moves to consider and others to make. What should be sufficiently apparent is what has reigned has not been good enough.  

       

  • Quartermark approaching

    Cleveland Indians GM Mark Shapiro is inclined to identifying the 40-game mark of a given season as the initial point at which assessments of a team may be legitimately made. Anything deduced earlier than that is reactionary, perhaps, illusion at the worst. Rash, at least.

    Weather permitting, the 2008 campaign should arrive at that juncture with the completion of Wednesday's contest with Oakland.

    Having won five of its last seven, the club is currently at .500, its 18 wins accompanied by as many losses. Some very recent outbursts have served to somewhat obscure what has been a horrible first half offensively, with almost every player responsible for a share of those difficulties.

    The team is last among the 14 AL clubs in triples and total bases, the latter distinction by a whopping 21 bags. It ranks 13th in BA and slugging percentage, eleventh in doubles and steals, tenth in homers and ninth in both walks and rbi. Amazingly, it is but a half-game out of first in its division. Not so amazingly, only five AL outfits have more K's.

    Among regulars, only catcher Victor Martinez has an average worth boasting about (an AL-leading .346), but he has yet to homer, has scored only 8 runs and driven in an extremely modest 14, given the average and his being situated in the cleanup role. Some of that can be attributed to his hamstring woes, but moreso it is attributable to deficient table-setting in front of him and protection behind him.

    In fact, the customary five-hole designee is 8th on the team in rbi despite being 3rd in ABs and tied for first in homers. So sporadic has been that man's run production that he is tied in rbi (13) with a teammate (David Dellucci) having 29 fewer AB. That player is also second on the club in strike outs, last in OBP, ninth in doubles---where he is tied by someone having 95 fewer at bats---and scarsely ahead of only two regulars in BA.

    This player is, of course, Jhonny Peralta. Credit the PD's Terry Pluto with revealing that Peralta, hitting .216 overall, is but .209 vs. RHP and .143 with RISP.

    In utmost deference to Shapiro's standard for patience, it is time to ask: "Why is this guy still a starter? Why is he so regularly in the five-hole? Why is he considered a core piece? Why is he not being shipped elsewhere in exchange for something with upside?"

    Credit, too, Manager Eric Wedge with finally sitting the guy again for Game One and for saying, in the Sunday Plain Dealer: "From a discipline standpoint, he's played long enough (You're telling me!) where he understands what he needs to do to be successful and what gets him into trouble." Also in his Indians Insider, beat reporter Paul Hoynes paraphrases Wedge as indicating he would like to see more consistency at the plate from Peralta.

    I beg to differ. It would seem Peralta has been quite consistent indeed. What he is is ill-equipped. What is happening is he's being mis-employed. He's mis-cast. He's clearly not a five-hole bat, nor is he deserving of core-piece consideration. It should not have required 40 games to conclude this much, either.

    What is more is Peralta sat and witnessed, as did  thousands of Tribe fans, what playing SS at the MLB level should look like. During Saturday's contest, second-year man Asdrubal Cabrera was permitted to perform at his native position and executed at least three stellar defensive plays that Peralta quite likely would never have converted into outs, as each required the shortstop to go deep into the hole and throw across his body while on the run to edge a Toronto batsman. Though Jhonny has one of the game's better infield arms, he lacks the range, body control and quickness to match what Cabrera displayed on those three grounders.

    It had to have occurred to everyone watching, Peralta included, that the club might be far better served---particularly inasmuch as it is so conspicuously constructed around its starting pitching---were it to henceforth feature Cabrera as its everyday shortstop.

    Though this is a thought articulated by many, this writer included, dating back to Cabrera's emergence late last summer, it remains the company line that "Peralta's bat is needed in the lineup." This perspective was echoed dutifully, in fact, by a host on the club's cable production typically preceding television broadcasts.

    Is it really so that this organization is beholden to someone with such horrific offensive numbers, particularly when they come attached to a player who remains undisciplined in the box, can't run and displays less-than-average major-league SS range? Are those aforementioned numbers really those of an indispensible component part?

    Is this not the same guy who has yet to have an 80-rbi campaign? What is the fascination with this player?

    It had been proposed, at the start of the off-season and again before spring training, that Peralta be converted to 2b, where similarly over-sized middle-infielders (Bobby Grich, Jeff Kent, et al) have gravitated and succeeded due to lessened range requirements. Third base was also mentioned, as the organization is seemingly without succession behind Casey Blake, a reality that resulted in his $6 million contact and the retention of Andy Marte.

    Alas, neither option was/has been pursued.

    What is offered as defense of that resistance has been the nonsensical argument perpetrated by Shapiro and inexplicably embraced and echoed by certain media cronies. It holds that Peralta's anticipated offensive potential at SS (as well Victor's at catcher and Grady's in CF) is needed to negate what is being sacrificed at the traditional power spots in the corners of both the infield and the outfield---as if the arrangements were mutually-exclusive. (Why must it be either one or the other? Cannot it be both instead of either?)

    In other words, just because you possess offense at traditionally non-offensive positions does not mean you must not have offense at the traditional corner spots.

    It is furthermore absurd because both Cabrera and Peralta would still appear in the regular lineup, even if Jhonny moved to 2b and Asdrubal at SS? The offensive contributors would be identical but the D would be enhanced.

    One must deduce the organization is really saying it is desirous of preserving Peralta's maximum value, something that might be compromised were Jhonny to become a 2b or 3b. But shouldn't present success be the priority over potential liquidation value? The front office can't truly believe it is better all-around continuing to invest in Peralta as its SS, when a clearly superior defensive option exists in-house?

    Even should it be the brass was protecting itself against Cabrera's being an aberration, wouldn't adding SS depth been wiser than maintaining the status quo?

    Therefore, there must be something about what is needed from a 2b that Peralta lacks. Certainly, his arm would be an asset on the dp. It must be the turn he can't perform.  As a 3b, he may lack the reactions for the hot corner, where the ball tends to arrive much more quickly than it does at SS.

    The aforementioned Pluto, in his Sunday notes column, wrote: "When some tribe fans want a major trade, they usually suggest dealing veteran players they don't like. But that does not happen because other teams have scouts and televisions, too."

    On the surface, this too seems to hold some merit. But it might also be said the Cleveland organization cannot have it both ways. A regular who possesses no marketability whatsoever should not be someone playing almost daily, much less in the five hole, as if his presence were essential to the team's contention.

    If it is to be assumed true that such a player is integral to whatever winning might be had, how could it be he'd have no market value were liquidation investigated?

    Peralta should be believable in a conversation to acquire a future 3b, then, right?

    It must be acknowledged, however, that Cabrera (.194) is one of only two starters---much-maligned DH Travis Hafner (.215) is the other---hitting less well than Peralta's .216. But Cabrera has only two fewer rbi in 18 fewer ABs. And it is not Asdrubal who immediately follows Martinez' excellent .384OBP in the batting order.

    Particularly inasmuch as JP is second on the club in total bases and has enjoyed such favorable designation in the order, Peralta's production should be bearing far more fruit. He simply is not a quality run producer. It is a mistake to expect him to perform as one, a judgment for which Shapiro and Wedge are responsible. 

    Now that 40 games are nearly in the book, perhaps the brass is ready to acknowledge the errors it has made relative to Peralta's employment---both in the field and at the plate. He's been remarkably overrated heretofore---or he is woefully under-achieving. Similarly, they may be regretting their relative non-activity last offseason where personnel adjustments are concerned.

    As that sentence was written, Cabrera just turned yet another play Peralta could only dream of, ranging far to his left to snag a Blue Jay grounder behind second to begin a double-play with a glove-flip to Jamey Carroll.

    It would seem this entry is holding Peralta primarily responsible for the Indians' 2008 offensive struggles, as well as their inability to parlay superb starting pitching into some significant distance between themselves and their AL Central competitors. To be clear, it is moreso the decision-makers who are to blame.

    Shapiro may be the reigning MLB Executive of the Year and Wedge the Manager of the Year, but theirs has not been stellar foresight. Peralta's persistance in their plans as exclusively a SS, as well as his reliance as a meat-of-the-order run-producer, are not their only failings. Choosing to invest in a LF platoon of Dellucci and the now-departed Jason Michaels is another. There is a litany of other evidence, involving names like Marte, Phillips, Guthrie, Chuch, Scott, Izturis, Tavares, Barton, et al.; but why rehash such garbage? What they are able to do about remediation moving forward is truly the question.

    For example, how married will they remain to Ryan Garko at 1b? He's apparently not potent enough to utilize fifth between Victor and Travis. He is another who cannot run and---again crediting Pluto---is at .195 vs. RHP. He's unremarkable defensively, despite his dedication to hard work, except to be horrid on pop-ups nearing the stands. What is more, he currently road-blocks the only two genuine bat prospects at Buffalo, where 4-A types predominate again.

    Those candidates are lefties Michael Aubrey (.345) and Jordan Brown, the organization's top minor-leaguer two years running. Especially since he is finally healthy---after appearing in only 243 games in the past five years, research attributed to PD's Dennnis Manoloff---the suddenly-26-year-old former number-one pick Aubrey could be the beneficiary of what has begun with the promotion of vet OF Jason Tyner.

    Tyner, a non-roster spring invitee, replaces the too-seldom-used RHR Tom Mastny, at least until Jeremy Sowers is recalled for a May 19th start in Cinn. (Credit Hoynes for this, too.) Tyner's arrival signals a departure from the 12-pitchers/13 position guys composition as to the 25-man roster. It could be Tyner (or 3b Andy Marte) will become designated to open a spot for Sowers' return. After the LHP's start, it could be Aubrey who inherits the roster spot, possibly in at least a 1b platoon with Garko.

    Admittedly, the more likely scenario would elevate the rehabbing LH OF Shin-Soo Choo, though he is not a 1b and would be wasted athletically to become one. Choo can be farmed for rehab purposes up to 20 days, so there figures to be a window of about 10 games during which Aubrey could be auditioned before a decision must be made about activating Shin-Soo.   

    What might eventually evolve is a late-summer package involving Garko and RHP Paul Byrd. By that time, Jake Westbrook would be back and re-entered into the rotation. Other clubs would be even more acutely aware of their need for a vet starter like Paul, an $8 mil/yr. commodity entering the final months of his contract.

    With CC, Fausto, Jake, Cliff and Laffey available, and Sowers, Adam Miller (wishful thinking?) and Brian Slocum in the pipeline, Byrd and/or Garko could present the brass with something of value to exchange for a possibly-needed bat.

    That is why it should be understood Ben Francisco and Choo have about two months' time to demonstrate they can be in-house solutions for an ailing offense. Testing Aubrey during that interim might also be astute, advisable and precautionary. 

    It has been the first 40-games, the quartermark, that have suggested much of this. The next 40 figure to more completely tell the tale of the season in general. Here is hoping the front office does not continue its ill-advised posture of standing pat. There are moves to consider and others to make. What should be sufficiently apparent is what has reigned has not been good enough, as the stats more than the standings attest.  

       

  • Stats can be dull and/or revealing

    Too much rhetoric has been devoted recently to the Indians' offensive woes. This will attempt not to add to that pile. Instead, it may dull with numbers.

    What is about to be displayed is a list of the club's primary batsmen, with their relative "production" through the first 30 games of this 2008 MLB season, with figures for home runs, runs scored and rbi deliberately omitted in order not to obscure what is being presented.

    Ten more games must yet be played before the so-called quartermark is attained, which would make the projected math easier and, according to those who subscribe to the quartermark theory, more relevant, as well.

    Still, a portrait can be painted if the anticipated figure of 600 at bats is employed. Most of the Tribesmen is at or near 100 at-bats.

    List arranged according to the number of ABs:

    Sizemore    112 AB         BA .277       OBP  .393       23 K         18 BB

    Hafner        110                     .209                 .305       30            14

    Peralta        102                     .216                 .279       25              9

    Garko          99                      .242                 .361       15            15

    Gutierrez      99                      .253                 .295       21             5

    Martinez      95                       .347                .380         8             4

    Blake           94                      .202                 .286       25             9

    Cabrera       89                      .191                 .284       20            11

    Dellucci       72                       .264                 .349       12             8

    Michaels      58                      .207                 .258       13              4

    Carroll         37                      .216                 .396         3              7

    So, what can be determined from these numbers? There is a lot of striking-out. Six guys project to K figures in excess of 120, with Travis headed for 180 and both Peralta and Blake for 150. What is more, the disparity between walks and strikeouts is horrid, which is reflected in the next stat examined. 

    That would be the atrocious lot of low OBPs. For comparison's sake, a reasonable OBP is .330, with .370 considered elite. Only Carroll, Grady and Victor merit the latter designation, which is no particular surprise. What is telling, however, is that only Garko and Dellucci join them among the reasonable. And it is not even close for the rest of the lineup. Five can't even crack .300!

    When it is further considered that a batting average in the .240 range is grounds for benching, this is a club that could not field a starting nine. Only five would make that arbitrary cut, and Garko only because his OBP mitigates his .242.

    It is a terrible offensive team, at least thusfar. But you knew that before these numbers confirmed it.

    Before the season began, I'd described the team's chances as overly-reliant upon "too many marginals," players who scarsely distinguish themselves among the MLB masses. What has tranpired is even worse than anticipated.

    Naturally, the sentiment remains that this outfit will right itself. That the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. That it won 96 ballgames last year. That it came within a single victory of getting to and probably winning a World Series. That too many of these guys have established track records they will eventually replicate.

    Maybe. Maybe not. What is surely apparent is whatever it is they have been doing when stepping into the batter's box has not been working for far too many of them.

    But, again, you probably deduced that for yourselves by now. 

  • Stats may be dull but often revealing

    Too much rhetoric has been devoted recently to the Indians' offensive woes. This will attempt not to add to that pile. Instead, it may dull with numbers.

    What is about to be displayed is a list of the club's primary batsmen, with their relative "production" through the first 30 games of this 2008 MLB season, with figures for home runs, runs scored and rbi deliberately omitted in order not to obscure what is being presented.

    Ten more games must yet be played before the so-called quartermark is attained, which would make the projected math easier and, according to those who subscribe to the quartermark theory, more relevant, as well.

    Still, a portrait can be painted if the anticipated figure of 600 at bats is employed. Most of the Tribesmen is at or near 100 at-bats.

    List arranged according to the number of ABs:

    Sizemore    112 AB         BA .277       OBP  .393       23 K         18 BB

    Hafner        110                     .209                 .305       30            14

    Peralta        102                     .216                 .279       25              9

    Garko          99                      .242                 .361       15            15

    Gutierrez      99                      .253                 .295       21             5

    Martinez      95                       .347                .380         8             4

    Blake           94                      .202                 .286       25             9

    Cabrera       89                      .191                 .284       20            11

    Dellucci       72                       .264                 .349       12             8

    Michaels      58                      .207                 .258       13              4

    Carroll         37                      .216                 .396         3              7

    So, what can be determined from these numbers? There is a lot of striking-out. Six guys project to K figures in excess of 120, with Travis headed for 180 and both Peralta and Blake for 150. What is more, the disparity between walks and strikeouts is horrid, which is reflected in the next stat examined. 

    That would be the atrocious lot of low OBPs. For comparison's sake, a reasonable OBP is .330, with .370 considered elite. Only Carroll, Grady and Victor merit the latter designation, which is no particular surprise. What is telling, however, is that only Garko and Dellucci join them among the reasonable. And it is not even close for the rest of the lineup. Five can't even crack .300!

    When it is further considered that a batting average in the .240 range is grounds for benching, this is a club that could not field a starting nine. Only five would make that arbitrary cut, and Garko only because his OBP mitigates his .242.

    It is a terrible offensive team, at least thusfar. But you knew that before these numbers confirmed it.

    Before the season began, I'd described the team's chances as overly-reliant upon "too many marginals," players who scarsely distinguish themselves among the MLB masses. What has tranpired is even worse than anticipated.

    Naturally, the sentiment remains that this outfit will right itself. That the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. That it won 96 ballgames last year. That it came within a single victory of getting to and probably winning a World Series. That too many of these guys have established track records they will eventually replicate.

    Maybe. Maybe not. What is surely apparent is whatever it is they have been doing when stepping into the batter's box has not been working for far too many of them.

    But, again, you probably deduced that for yourselves by now. 

    As a post-script to this entry, the data argues for Wedge to dispense with his attempts to place a hot bat in each third of the order and do as had been earlier suggested: bunch his better bats so as to optimize what strength the club has at its disposal.

    Since one would not want to platoon his 3-hole hitter, Dellucci shares leadoff, presumably with Francisco, who was recalled since the earlier paragraphs. Following DD's .349 OBP would come Carroll's .396 ahead of Sizemore's .393 batting third. Victor's .380 would be backed by Garko's .361, setting the table for Hafner's uncharacteristic .305. Then it gets quite dicey, as Blake (.286), Gutierrez (.295) and Peralta's incredibly bad .279 would be left to close things out.

    Given his lack of speed and range, together with his much-too-rare stroke which takes him to his natural right-center power, Peralta should be shopped, if there is in fact a market for him. He simply provides too little as an all-around player if he is not going to out-hit his conspicuous shortcomings.

    Michaels was designated for assignment by the Tribe, meaning within ten days he'll be released, dealt or outrighted. What this development creates, aside from a cleared roster slot for Ben, is open 40-man spot, as well. It could soon be that Buffalo closer Rick Bauer will be recalled to fill it. He's done very well in the backend of the top farm club's pen and was identified in spring training as one who might be summoned fairly early.

    In the meantime, exchanging Cabrera with Josh Barfield, currently with the Bison, could be the organization's next adjustment. Asdrubel needs to regain his stroke and his confidence, but is not showing signs of coming out of his early-season struggles. Before his self-esteem is seriously damaged and because Barfield is an excellent defender, baserunner and potential weapon for a floundering team, this may a move that occurs sooner than later.

    Performing at AAA would not only allow AC to play his natural SS position, but ready him to inherit JP's job once the disappointing middle-infielder is liquidated.

    Talk about ironic! No sooner does the ballpark assume the name Progressive than the team regresses.

  • Wedge reportedly "not ready"

    Tribe fans had to laugh---or otherwise strongly react---upon reading this morning's Plain Dealer, in which beat writer Paul Hoynes, alluding to the manager, wrote "he wasn't ready to drop Hafner out of the No. 3 spot in the lineup."

    Travis, the club's struggling DH, is second on the club with 12 runs scored and with 15 rbi, but no one has had more ABs either. More telling, perhaps, is that cleanup hitter Victor Martinez has but nine rbi with his club-high .366 BA and 26 hits---despite being 8th in ABs. He's also scored but five times.

    Clearly, this is not a successful batting order, though its inefficiency should not be placed entirely upon Hafner, who has immediately preceded Victor virtually all season long. Without doubt, the table has not been properly set for Martinez this season.

    A legitimate flaw with the on-hand personnel is no one appears to have a prototype 3-hole skill set:  a high average, above-average speed, extra-base power, reliable consistency and a handsome OBP. Travis may be situated there by default; but that is not reason enough to persist with the ploy.

    I wish they'd listened when I'd recommended they be the outfit to allow Josh Hamilton his comeback two winters ago. Now with Texas, Josh is, by the way, at .333 (third in AL) with a league-leading 27 rbi (Casey Blake leads the Tribe with 18) and 35 hits, second only to Dustin Pedroia's 36.

    Were it to be that aberration events---such as Blake's six rbi evening in Minnesota or Franklin Gutierrez' two healthy nights of run production---could be sticken from the roll, team numbers from top-to-bottom would be even more atrocious. More revealing is SS Jhonny Peralta's having but ten rbi with his club-leading 5 home runs.

    This has not been an opportunistic attack, contrasted, interestingly, by what the Yanks did in their one inning of offense last night. Hoynes quotes Wedge: "They definitely capitalized."

    Meanwhile, the Tribe got four straight singles to start the previous half inning---that's a run home, the bases juiced with no one out and the meat of the order coming up---and came away with a single additional run, that on a soft sacrifice fly by Hafner.

    Yuch!

    Fairly recently, this site criticized the state's largest newspaper for seemingly avoiding the display of the team's statistics, as if it were conspiring to conceal the team's ineptitude beyond what is apparent during any viewing. Since that practice has since been conspicuously discontinued---though it is probably more coincidence than any indication that this writer has any influence whatsoever---it is nonetheless recommended those stats begin to reflect OBP and BA with RISP. Then it would become even more apparent that this is a troubled lineup further handicapped by an ill-conceived batting order.

    Reigning MLB executive of the year, Cleveland GM Mark Shapiro, needs to get busy about addressing the talent deficiencies this organization has, as the component parts are simply not assembled here. Though such an insinuation is more easily said than done, it is not as if they manifested only this month, or that this assessment is one of recent vintage that possibly caught him by surprise.

    This is the same bunch that nearly disappeared in the heat of last summer, with runs nearly as rare as August snowmen. The same bunch that wilted during the stretch of previous seasons, as well. And the identical essential core that failed to close on a 3-1 playoff lead in the ALCS last October. That they are boring fans to death again this year is neither accident nor coincidence.

    Though it will reflexively be reminded it was good enough to get to all those places, the whole story may be that it overachieved to get there, at which times its enduring flaws simply caught up with them. Maybe, too, the players themselves clinched-up knowing they were surprising even themselves, quite aware they were doing what they were doing with little more than mirrors.

    This team is at least one bat away from complete. And that addition would still ignore what it lacks where defensive range, team speed and situational hitting are concerned, particularly with its tendency to K at the least favorable times.

    Maybe I'm over-reacting. Maybe I'm just frustrated. But tell me where I'm wrong. This assemblage has inherent flaws, with its batting order just symptomatic of them.

    Here's a wild thought. Now that Frank Thomas is back in Oak to assume the everyday DH job he foolishly turned his back on after an outstanding 2006 there, Mike Sweeney is expendable. A notoriously positionless RH bat, Sweeney has always hit well in Cleveland and was nearly signed last winter by San Diego to---believe it or not---try LF. The A's are playing without Eric Chavez at 3b, as he is again out with back troubles, now on the 60-day DL. They are also employing the lumbering Jack Cust in LF, someone who could (minimally) use a RH platoon partner. Why not give them Jason Michaels and Andy Marte for the former KC slugger?

    Sweeney won't solve all the team's offensive problems, but he is someone able to absorb some of the run-producing burden currently overwhelming too many Indians. He'd thicken the "meat" and complement the efforts of Victor and Travis and Ryan much moreso than are those being dispatced to acquire him. Let him see if his offense could become contagious. And let David Dellucci job-share with Gutierrez, outfield D be damned.

    It's not a perfect solution, but what can you expect for J-Mike and Marte. (It's not as if we could reverse the deals involving Milton Bradley, Brandon Phillips and Kevin Kouzmanoff, after all. Imagine where we might be if we still had them.) Let's at least try something different having a decent shot at altering this defective formula, eh?

    Wedgie may not be "ready," but this guy is.    

  • A few interesting UnFA signings; draft thoughts

    Hardcore football fans have not yet had their fill, apparently, of NFL roster additions. Two days of draft coverage following weeks/months of pre-draft banter have not satiated everyone, if action on the Browns' forum sites is any indication.

    Many are eager to know which of the undrafted free agents will be joining their favorite teams. Among the early returns, there are some very interesting developments.

    For example, who'd have thought San Diego would want another round of Leaf? It has been ten years since the Chargers spent the second-overall pick on Washington State's Ryan Leaf to be their QB of the future, selected just moments after Indy nabbed a Tennessee product named Peyton Manning.

    Leaf was a notorious bust and an even more celebrated a-hole. Even in a sport desperate for talented young passers, he was out of the game very soon, failing in a subsequent rescue attempt afforded him by the always-resourceful Cowboys.

    Nonetheless, San Diego threw a lifeline to his kid brother, Oregon passer Brady Leaf.

    Minnesota also kept things in the family, so to speak.  

    LB Erin Henderson, who followed his brother EJ at Maryland now joins him in the North Country. Texas safety Marcus Griffin might re-align beside a former Longhorn teammate with the same surname in the Minn secondary, as last year the Vikes added CB Cedric Griffin from the same collegiate program. Marcus' twin is Titan DB Michael, who played alongside Cedric when the 'Horns won the national title two years ago.

    A pair of Crimson Tide mates were also signed since the end of yesterday's draft. Safety Simeon Castille is now a Bengal, while DE Wallace Gilberry joins the defending champion Giants. Gary Guyton of Georgia Tech impressed his Senior Bowl coaching staff sufficiently to be signed by the Niners, who could use an ILB like him to pair inside with last year's NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year, Patrick Willis. SF also signed Nevada's swift and versatile LB Ezra Butler.

    Another intriguing free-agent addition occurred in NE, where Liberty's OLB Vince Redd was inked by the Pats, who continue to beat the Browns to prospects who'd fit nicely into their similar defensive schemes.  At least this one was not a former Michigan Wolverine, as had been the last three such OLB edge-rushers. New England nabbed Massillon's Shawn Crable as the Pats' third-round choice, following the path from Ann Arbor to Foxboro earlier tread by Prescott Burgess (Warren) and Pierre Woods (Glenville).

    Additionally, though it may seem immodest to say so and it is not this writer's style to self-promote, the draft proceedings seemingly confirmed many of the observations documented during my January stay in Mobile for Senior Bowl festivities.

    Among them was the mention that a pair of Ohio-born interior OL with low profiles---virtually verified by their being on the South squad though they attended northern schools---were making money for themselves by outplaying several more hyped teammates.

    Choices 108 and 109 early in Round Four had BG's Kory Lichtensteiger (Van Wert) and Pitts' Mike McGlynn (Austintown Fitch) come off the board for Denver and Philadelphia, respectively. Arkansas' ORG Robert Felton, conversely, went undrafted entirely, while Clemson's Barry Richardson went in the sixth to KC.

    UNC DT Kentwan Balmer withstood the nit-picking overanalysis to remain a first-round choice, going to SF, while slot receivers Donnie Avery (33 to StL), Jordy Nelson (36 to GB), Eddie Royal (42 to Denver), Dexter Jackson (58 to Tampa), Harry Douglas (84 to AtL) and Lavelle Hawkins (126 to Tenn) all went quite early relative to the more celebrated group of Andre Caldwell (97 to Cinn), Eddie Doucet (81 to Ariz) and the undrafted duo of  Dorien Bryant and Adarius Bowman.

    Likewise, New Mexico's WR Marcus Smith, who was a personal sleeper for this observer, went at 106 to Baltimore, where he figures to fill a Josh Cribbs-like role, as both a kick-returner and -coverer.

    That Utah State's Kevin Robinson (182 to KC) went so much earlier than Adrian Arrington (237 to NO), Mario Urretia (246 to Cinn) and Marcus Monk (248 to Chic), further demonstrates the contention slot-guys with return potential have far greater value than angular collegiate targets who don't figure to help on 'teams. The aforementioned Bowman, once thought to be a first-round talent, falls into the latter category, as well. Notice how little USC Dwayne Jarrett, tabbed in Round Two by the Panthers last year, has done as a pro. He may be moving on real soon.

    Round Three had many of the Mobile defenders I'd identified as meritorious: Hampton DE Kendall Langford (66 to Mia), DE Chris Ellis (72 to Buffalo), DE/OLB Bruce Davis (88 to Pitts), DE/OLB Cliff Avril (92 to Det) and MLB Phillip Wheeler (93 to Indy), as well as small-school OL Chad Rinehart (96 to Wash). Conversely, I'd panned several DL as unworthy of top-50 consideration---Marcus Harrison (90 to Chic), Dre Moore (115 to Tampa), Red Bryant (121 to Sea), Demarrio Pressley (144 to NO)---while promoting Notre Dame's squatty Trevor Laws, who went far earlier (47) to the Eagles.      

    To be fair, I also dissed Colorado LB Jordan Dizon (45 to Det) and Eastern Michigan's DE James Jones (54 to Tenn)---and remain doubtful they'll justify their rather lofty selections. StL's choice at 157, however, Roy Schuening, an OG from Oregon State, will far exceed his. TB's selection at 238, South Carolina RB Cory Boyd, who was not in Mobile, is another who will surprise as a pro. This Earnest Byner-type will be a real player in the league.

    (As I'd also written at the time, part of the appeal of making the annual exodus to South Alabama in late January is to challenge one's talent assessment skills against those of the paid professionals.)

    Before leaving the talk of Senior Bowl prospects, it should be noted how the Colts not only drafted three centers, but two of those were in Mobile: Mike Pollak was chosen at 59 and Steve Justice at 201. Jamey Richard, who played at Buffalo, joined the Colts in Round Seven (236).

    Particularly inasmuch as veteran OG Ruben Brown may be retiring, OSU's Kirk Barton, chosen at 247 by the Bears, also has a chance to contribute well beyond his drafted status, though he'll be converting inside from tackle. Coincidentally, the Bucks had only three players taken by pro teams, the first with only five ahead of him and the last with only five behind.

    Interesting, too, was that a pair of heralded SEC QBs---Tennessee Volunteer Eric Ainge (162 to Jets) and Kentucky Wildcat Andre Woodson (198 to Giants), both of whom were invited to the Senior Bowl---were still on the board after Oregon's Dennis Dixon (156 to Steelers) and San Diego's Josh Johnson (160 to Tampa) were drafted.

    In the interest of completeness, UNLV's Beau Bell was someone I was most interested in scouting when I arrived in Mobile, as I'd long  ago assessed ILB as the Browns' foremost personnel need and Bell was the only ILB with NFL size on the field.

    As has been liberally reported elsewhere, Bell incurred a bone bruise to his knee very early in the proceedings, consequently compromising his ability to subsequently test well during pre-draft evaluations. But, even before the injury, many of the attributes for which Bell is credited were not on exhibit: "great speed, quick to read and react, plays sideline-to-sideline, blows through/controls blockers, solid in coverage, outstanding range, an infectious internal rage." (Quotes taken from The Sporting News' '08 Draft Guide, pg. 83.)

    He did not look quick, explosive, particularly athletic, instinctive, agile or flexible. In fact, he looked thick, sluggish, overmatched and out of his element, possibly owing to his being auditioned exclusively inside, in a 4-3, with unfamiliar teammates, schemes, surroundings and against unseen sets.

    He looked, to be clear, a lot like current Brown Andra Davis. He was injured getting, as I'd written at the time, "caught up in the wash" defending a routine running play.

    Hopefully, those were observations about which I will not be proven correct, as the Browns gave a five to move up 18 slots in the fourth to grab a guy they'd given a second-round grade, one they "coveted for more than a year," according to the Cleveland Plain Dealer's Tony Grossi.

    Quite likely, the Browns' assessments had more to do with his in-season play in the Mountain West Conference for the Runnin' Rebels. Footage shown did reveal a much faster-playing athlete who was active and furious. Then again, he was perpetually moving forward in those defensive calls, not being asked to read and react.

    Athyba Rubin joined the Mobile contingent late in the week and impressed as a thick, barrel-chested run-stuffer who looks very much like a classic NT. He appears to be a very intriguing DL prospect and may well be the final piece to an outstanding rotation.

    Missouri TE Martin Rucker is also a keeper, with outstanding passing-game assets. In fact, he resembles what Joe Jurevicius has provided the Browns: "excellent hands to reach and pluck, tough going across the middle, absorbing hard hits and holding onto the ball, shields defenders, dangerous in short-yardage and in the redzone." Separation is not Rucker's forte unless the matchup is favorable; but he is a reliable catcher, leader and playmaker.

    Having surrendered two mid-round '09 draft picks does not delight, however. On the other hand, both Rucker and Wisc WR Paul Hubbard get a full year in Chud's system to learn it, acclimate to it and assimilate to the clubhouse and prepare their collegiate bodies for the professional game. Perhaps that is just rationalization, though.  

  • Might this be the end of Michaels?

    The Cavs had a great win today. Day Two of the NFL draft was completed. There is much more to discuss than Cleveland's journeyman singles-hitting OF, heretofore the RH half of an unspectacular LF platoon. But this may be the start of his last evening in the wigwam.

    This is thought to be so not only because he is currently at .176, but also because of somewhat peculiar circumstances surrounding the ballclub.

    Foremost of these is the need to create a roster spot for Monday's starting pitcher, LH Aaron Laffey. That could be easily achieved by repeating what has already been established as precedent this weekend. That is, the last guy up could be the first one down.

    Ben Francisco was up from Buffalo for less than a full week, promoted when RH Jake Westbrook went out with his intercostal sprain, an ailment that now figures to sideline him for at least four full weeks. Francisco, a fan favorite and arguably the sensation of spring training, performed well, as expected, when utilized but was moved aside when space was needed for Saturday's starter, Jeremy Sowers.

    With Saturday's start dispensed with, Sowers was likewise returned to AAA; but not to activate Laffey.

    Instead, LH OF Brad Snyder, a former number-one draft pick but already on his last option though today was his big-league debut, was elevated because of yesterday's ankle twist, incurred by star CF Grady Sizemore, whose consecutive games-played streak was thereby ended.

    Surely, Snyder could be following Francisco and Sowers with an abrupt about-face to western New York. With Michaels, David Dellucci and Franklin Gutierrez available, the varsity would be satisfactorily covered, even should Sizemore remain unavailable for the finale of the wrap-around weekend series with the Yankees, especially since 3b Casey Blake can also play OF in the event of an in-game injury.

    However, this may be the time to make a move with Michaels.

    It has been Cleveland's custom to provide its first-time-up minor-leaguers extended exposure to MLB life: the lifestyle, the daily grind, the preparation, the big-city hotels and such. Doing so is thought to mitigate the inevitable nerves that accompany one's eventual emergence in the big-league lineup, should that day ever, indeed, arrive.

    Since this other might well be Snyder's final campaign under the Tribe's control, a decision must be made on the Bellevue native, in whom so much has been invested. Perhaps it will be decided now is Brad's time.

    After all, not only is J-Mike doing little to justify further investment in him, but enough has been seen of him to know he is not great-shakes, so to say. At 32, he is not going to suddenly get better. And the availability of Francisco, the need to decide upon Snyder and the imminent return of Shin-Soo Choo all argue that Michael's day is rapidly approaching.

    Cleveland GM Mark Shapiro is possibly entertaining the prospect of allowing Snyder not only his extended exposure but also an opportunity to job-share RF with Gutierrez, who chronically struggles against RH pitching. Snyder, a Ball State product, has comparably strong defensive skills, above-average running ability, a very respectable throwing arm, longball power and a similar propensity for striking out.

    At least until Choo is fully ready to rejoin the club, Snyder might be auditioned as a big-league platooner.

    As for Michaels, it would not be expected he'd bring much back in return, but there is probably a role out there for a player of his sort. He is a decent all-around performer with a history of producing off-the-bench, a somewhat rare talent he's displayed in both leagues. He's good in the clubhouse, popular with his teammates, a quality defender, a team-first guy and a proven pinch-hitter. He'll find employment elsewhere.

    It is regrettable, in retrospect, that Michaels' roster slot was not instead granted Rule 5 loss Brian Barton, now contributing with StL, who was lost without compensation because the 40-man was fully crowded.

    Though none of the system's minor-league clubs is successful this year, at least by the standard of winning percentages, there are some promising young bats that merit auditions, if only because the clock is ticking on their careers, as well. Michael Aubrey, for example, is 26 and still at AA. Jordan Brown is another lefty restricted to 1b and DH for whom space will  someday soon need be found.

    Michaels, through no fault of his own, represents something of a road block for these kids. This must be the summer Francisco, Choo and Snyder distinguish themselves as keeper parts, if they are to remain with the organization henceforth. Both Ben and Brad are in their final-option summers and Choo's has already been had. What is more, it can reasonably be thought that this will be the final opportunity for the trio (and Dellucci) to convince the front office no outsider(s) must be imported to prop up the batting order.

    Therefore, it is quite possible J-Mike is on his way out of town---if not tonight, fairly soon. The time is soon and it may be now.

    For that matter, though I do not foresee it, Shapiro may acknowledge that Dellucci's re-established value is as high as it figures to become and that now is as good a time to liquidate him as ever will be. Why that is not anticipated is this lineup cannot dispatch one of the few productive hitters in it.

    Rather, Jason Michaels is appearing quite vulnerable at this time.

  • After Day One of 2008 NFL draft

    Media outlets across the country and the 'net will be full of characteristic draft analysis, some of which will herald the quickened pace the reduced time allocations produced. For example, this year's opening round was a full three hours shorter than last year's.

    Who was taken and by whom, in what order and why will not be examined here or now. Instead, some attention will be devoted to who remains, as there are significant surprises, including several who had been projected by many to appear in Round One. Instead, they must hope to go in Day Two or will be left to humble themselves as undrafted free agents.

    The Joe-Thomas influence was evident, too. Eight OL went by choice 26, once Atlanta dealt into Washington's choice at 21, presumably afraid Houston would claim USC's OLT Sam Baker at 23. (The Texans ended up dealing down to 26 and settling for Va Tech OLT Duane Brown. Neither Baker nor Brown were commonly projected  for Day One much less Round One.)

    Conversely, no wideouts were chosen til overall selection 33, when StL nabbed Donnie Avery, the Houston Cougar and the first of ten second-round WRs.

    Nonetheless it was the WRs who heavily populated the most-disappointed list, no doubt because it is one of the most difficult to transition to between the collegiate and NFL levels. Possibly Wonderlic scores factored---though it may be irresponsible to so speculate. Possibly the knowledge shown to be deficient during pre-draft interviews exposed those whose names have yet to be called as risky early-round selections, at least insofar as immediate impact might be concerned. If a team must wait more than a year for a youngster to get with the program, it may as well avoid investing a high pick in him. 

    LSU's Early Doucet and Florida's Andre Caldwell---two guys who also have in common knowing what it feels like to help keep OSU from experiencing a National Championship victory---are among those thought to possibly be first-rounders who have to be wondering "What happened?" right about now. Michigan's Mario Manningham, Oklahoma State's Adarious Bowman and Louisville's Harry Douglas are three other wideouts who'd found their ways onto early mock drafts, but knew better than to expect such good fortune by the time late April rolled around.

    Running backs Kevin Smith (Central Florida) and Jamaal Charles (Texas) also had reason to think they might already be affiliated with some club in the league by now. Similarly, DBs Chevis Jackson (LSU), DeJuan Tribble (Boston College), DaJuan Morgan (NC State), Reggie Smith (Oklahoma), Chris Godfrey (Iowa) and Justin King (Penn State) were thought to possibly have at least round-two grades. The same might've been said of DL Ahtyba Rubin (Iowa State), Red Bryant (Texas A&M), Dre' Moore (Maryland), Marcus Harrison (Arkansas), Pat Sims (Auburn) and both LeRoy Guion and Andre Fluellen of Florida State.

    Consequently, many of these names figure to go off the board  by the time the Cleveland Browns enter the fray with choice 122, as should LBs Beau Bell (UNLV), Ezra Butler (Nevada-Reno), Vince Hall (Virginia Tech), Phillip Wheeler (Georgia Tech), Tavares Gooden (Miami), Dan Connor (Penn State) and another Va Tech Hokie, the slender and mobile Xavier Adibi.

    As for good news for Cleveland fans, there is a reasonably decent chance at least one of these edge-rusher candidates could still be there in Round Four: Chris Ellis (Va Tech), Bruce Davis (UCLA), Jeremy Geathers (UNLV), Darrell Robertson (Georgia Tech), Cliff Avril (Purdue) and Jeremy Thompson (Wake Forest)

    What was interesting was seeing teams feel compelled to deal in front of someone else in order to assure themselves access to a specific athletic target. When the Jets jumped back into Round One, for example, logic suggested they were trying to keep someone from getting to the Giants or the Dolphins, the two clubs selecting immediately after the #30 choice acquired from GB. Could it be a safety the Jets coveted, since the Giants were known to want one (and did, in fact, select one)? The sixth-best CB? Or was it a QB they wanted before Bill Parcells' Dolphins could nab him?

    Amazingly, it was Purdue TE Dustin Keller they felt they had to have, even with the top-rated WRs still available, as well.

    Earlier, JAX went all the way from 26 to 8 so as to draft Gator DE Derrick Harvey, bestowing upon him the distinction of possibly being the most over-drafted of the top 20---though the newest Arizona Cardinal, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, the former Tennessee State CB, threatens to ultimately secure that honor.

    Many justifiably praise Kansas City for its productive drafting, but it may be Bill Belichick's New England Patriots who seem to have done the reaching. Admittedly, pre-draft projections mean very little, but no one else had Tennessee LB Jerod Mayo rated tenth overall or Colorado CB Terrence Wheatley worthy of a second-round selection. Mayo was a very likely first-rounder, but Wheatley has a chronically-injured wrist, reportedly shies from tackling, lacks toughness, does not play with intensity and isn't expected to ever become an every-down performer. Then again,  there is always a place for a nickel back and the Pats do have a legacy of winning.

    The run on OTs between 12 and 26 was somewhat expected, though not to such an extent. What moreso stunned was Tennessee's selection of East Carolina speedster Chris Johnson at 24, particularly inasmuch as they last year at this time fell apparently in love with Arizona RB Chris Henry and spent a second-round pick to secure him.

    Look for Johnson to be employed in a Reggie-Bush-like manner, appearing in the slot, running reverses, catching swings and screens and wheel routes, as well as returning kicks. As a multi-dimensional weapon, Johnson just might provide QB Vince Young with the type of assistance he was hopeful of seeing from this year's draft.

    That it came in a relatively small-school RB instead of a big-name WR is what made Johnson's selection so unexpected. An explosive player who is a threat to score on every touch because of his world-class speed, Johnson is somewhat Metcalf-like and may eventually revert to fulltime WR employment.

    The Titans, of course, remain in play for one of the aforementioned WR leftovers, as well. The Jets figure to get involved, too, and should also look hard at a strong-armed thrower like San Diego State's Kevin O'Connell.

     

  • Draft as crap shoot

    Since the truth contained in the subject line is rarely debated, particularly when a team's top selection does not arrive until two-third's the way through  Round Four, there is one gamble I prefer to another.

    It should be evident the wiser gamble is on a sure-fire talent with injury history than a suspect talent without such physical concerns. This, of course, assumes their characters are comparably clean and that those with the injuries have sufficiently healed.

    This preamble is my way of saying Nebraska's CB Zach Bowman and TCU's Tommy Blake head my hoped-for list of 2008 draft candidates for the Cleveland Browns, though ILB is considered the roster's greatest concern.

    Bowman and Blake might well have been top-ten projections had not they incurred complications en route to early Day One selection. Bowman was reportedly among the nation's top cover corners as long ago as 2005, possessed with long arms, quick feet, excellent speed, desireable ball skills, bump-and-run qualities and the toughness and technique for tackling. To go with hands and instincts, at 196 and a shade over six foot, Bowman also has prototypical CB size.

    Two serious knee injuries interferred, however. Damage was sustained to the patellar in one knee and the ACL in the other. 

    As for Blake (6-3 255 4.6), his questions are of a more delicate nature, with whispers of depression and bipolar disorder among his afflictions. Subsequent medication caused weight fluctuations tempering his once elite athleticism, characterized by quickness, speed, explosiveness, closing burst, acceleration, a competitive spirit and a very high motor that goes all out on every play. Once a certain top-five overall pick, Blake also has experience in a 3-4 scheme, personifies potential and is famous for behind-the-line tackles.

    With Leigh Bodden having gone to Detroit as partial payment for DT Shaun Rogers and with the Browns desperately in need of an edge-rushing complement to ROLB Kamerion Wimbley, Bowman and Blake, respectively, may represent ideal solutions for Browns' GM Phil Savage when finally he gets to participate on Day Two of the NFL draft.

    Reportedly, Purdue LB Stanford Keglar may be the GM's target in Round Four. Some feel he might step in immediately as an appreciated inside player. UNLV's Beau Bell is supposedly the guy the team hopes falls to within their trading-up reach, though he did not impress this observer during Mobile's Senior Bowl week. A falling DL could also intrigue, as might the chance to acquire a veteran via trade for one of the Sunday picks. Doubtlessly, you've seen and examined the same prospect lists as have I.

    But the two I'm hoping are Cleveland Browns by the end of the annual talent-acquisition process are Bowman and Blake, with Oklahoma State's Rodrick Johnson (6-2 260) my choice for ILB thereafter. The best available, regardless of position, can be the seventh-round option. 

    When it's time to lock up undrafted rookie free agents, go heavily after OT, ILB and CB depth.

    Count me among those who would rather gamble on talented health concerns than on healthy youngsters questionable for their marginal skills. bowman and Blake are dare-to-be-great alternatives.

    In closing, may this be a fruitful and memorable weekend for Browns' fans the world over.  

  • About Tribe Offensive Woes

    It is no secret the 2008 Cleveland Indians are off to a truly disappointing start in their quest to defend their AL Central title. Media energy is being allocated to opinions on the subject, though the largest local newspaper continues to conspicuously omit team stats from its regular editions.

    Today's product, however, does go somewhat into detail about the team's inability to score runs, though key stats like OBP, OBS and RISP---all known to be significant indicators in the eyes of the front office, as well as to any meaningful assessment of an offense's efficiency---remain exempt from exposure.

    Of these, only OBP is available for examination on the club's website. It is highly unlikely the other information is out of reach for those covering the club on a daily basis, however. Not only would the team's PR minions dutifully supply them, if asked, but they are probably included in daily game notes customarily generated by that  branch of the organization, easily accessed by press-box occupants.

    The point is, it is mysterious, to say the least, that reporting of them goes undone, particularly given their relevance.

    Leaving such issues aside for the time being, it would be reasonable for critics, disgruntled fans and reactionary followers to keep a few things in mind, when preparing to propose solutions to the Tribe's lineup ailments.

    This is not an especially well-financed franchise---which is NOT a slam on ownership. It simply is one operating on a  fairly-strict budget, in deference to its being located in a mid-sized market, with a cold-weather climate further threatening critical attendance figures, as well as one that does not generate revenue from multiple streams evidenced in other locations.

    That being said, it must be factored that money allocated to certain players virtually mandates that those players will continue to appear regularly as virtual core pieces. The relevance of that is their positions in the lineup will likely go undisturbed. Names on that list would include Casey Blake and David Dellucci, at least for a goodly portion of the season's first half, in order for the club to feel it has done all it could to get its money's worth from their contracts.

    Those referenced economic realities also preclude the Tribe from adding a high-ticket remedy, such as those added by Detroit during the off-season:  Edgar Renteria, Jacque Jones and Miquel Cabrera. Sure it would be nice, as one commentator opined, "to have a Matt Holiday (Colorado's MVP LF)," but not only is that organization not about to surrender him, but the Cleveland Indians cannot afford to absorb the money it would take to afford taking---much less keeping---him.

    This is a long way of saying solutions must work around specific considerations. No expensive additions are forthcoming and whatever arrives must fit within a rather rigid core skeleton. Additional flexibility could be managed were the front office to decide Asdrubal Cabrera and Franklin Gutierrez needed to return to AAA Buffalo for further seasoning, since they last summer joined an already-rolling ballclub and therefore could perform under m