I could have done myself and everyone else a favor yesterday by waiting another day to create a new post, but the fates and my longwindedness are unkind mistresses. The signings of Robaire Smith and Seth McKinney have changed the landscape of where we'll go in free agency as well the upcoming draft. Savage just solidified two positions that were unacceptably thin, and according to his own words, effectively closed the proverbial checkbook on this free agent period for the organization, Shaun Smith and his situation notwithstanding. Invetiably, the team will sign another player here or there. Some may be nothing more than filler, while othes may be unexpected cuts that can really help the team, but with the draft a mere six weeks away and the pro-day reports coming in on a daily basis, it's time to start focusing on the most important aspect of player acquisition.
While the modern free agency period of NFL football can help a team dig out of a hole, there are no teams currently in the league that draft poorly who simultaneously win on Sundays. We need look no further than our own historical archives to see how ineptitude leads a team to the cellar. Far be it from me to turn this into a rant against Dwight Clark and that regime, suffice it to say they exemplify how poor draft selections can cripple a franchise. To that end, Savage is in fantastic position to strike quickly and acquire some amazing talent (at the expense of a disasterous 2006 season) but with so many glaring holes on the roster, he simply can't afford to miss. I've made my position clear on how I feel about drafting a QB in my previous entry, so I won't bore everyone with redundant repetition (though you'll no doubt suffer terribly as I suck all the air out of the room). I'll opine concerning the holes that remain as well as the various likely (and perhaps unlikley) draft-day scenarios that may play out. We've all learned as recently as last year that things don't always go according to plan. Reggie Bush sure did some amazing things with the Texans this past season, wouldn't you agree..............
Robaire Smith brings the workman-like skillset to the 3-4 defensive end position. Big (6'4 310) and strong, Smith has experience in the 3-4 and understands the position. Never blessed with anything remotely close to pass-rush ability, he has always been known as a guy who can hold his own at the point of attack. Human nature has a nasty habit of often labeling players based not on what they bring to the table, but how they are perceived on any given team. Until this past season, Peyton Manning had been labeled as a gifted quarterback who couldn't win the big one. Such was an opinion that I have never agreed with, as I always look for what a person is capable of, not what he's done in the past. Several years ago, Manning was said to not have it in him to beat the Patriots. He eventually got past Bill Bellyache and his roaving band of Chowderheads, yet was still tagged as a guy who couldn't win the big one. He's since smashed all of those sentiments and will go down in history as, possibly, the greatest QB to ever play the game. Likewise for Bill Cowher, who was always labeled as the modern Marty Schottenheimer, being a really good coach who wasn't great because he hadn't won the Super Bowl.
Whoops.
So we come back to Robaire Smith, who's been with such stellar teams over the past four seasons as the 5-11 Titans, the lowly Texans for the next two, and back with the Titans last season. Because of guilt by association, people aren't aware of just how solid Smith really is. Since becoming a full-time player in 2002, he's missed exactly one game. If nothing else, that's the kind of durability that Browns fans should get excited over. So what does he bring to the table as a 3-4 DE? Smith is a guy that has enough strength to take on a double-team and not give ground. He's not going to be the kind of player that will explode through a gap and sack the QB, as that's not his game. Knuckling down in the trench and stalemating his men, Smith will allow our linebackers more freedom to work the gaps and run to the sidelines. In that regard, he'll be able to do things that McKinley never could, who, as it turns out, is better suited as a 4-3 player. Smith isn't fast, but has the ability to slide down the line and make plays. He gets a good push on obvious passing situations, which should help the playmakers of the 3-4, the OLB's, create havoc. Now make no mistake about this. Smith isn't going to the pro-bowl next season. If he musters two sacks and 50 total tackles for us it will have been a banner year for him and the organization. His job is to simply eat blockers, nothing more, and in that regard, he's an instant upgrade over what we've had the past couple of years. The only true downside with this signing is his age, as he's going to be 30 in November. Still, with the kind of durability that he's shown, that number is far better than the worn-down 27 years of Jamal Lewis. By the way, in case anyone is still interested in the teams he played on, know that he was part of the 2002 Titans that went 11-5 and the 2003 Titans that went 12-4, so yes, he does know what winning feels like, and can impress that upon the younger players. I hope you feel a little better about the signing than you did just a few minutes ago.
Seth McKinney is a starting-caliber swingman who's coming off of a wasted 2006 season. A first-day selection of the Dolphins out of Texas A&M in 2002, McKinney had found a home as a center but can also play guard. He's a low-risk player that will help the team IF, and that's a big if, his neck injury doesn't derail his career. I have always placed the highest value on players that can work other positions, and with our questionable state at the center position, a guy like McKinney represents great value. He's most likely penciled in as our new starting right guard, but can play any of the interior positions, just like Steinbach. At 6'3 312, he's strong enough to get a good push in the run game and tends to be a solid technician in pass protection. Somewhat like Fraley, he can be beaten by power players, but what else is new if you're not a pro-bowl lineman? Of course if his neck becomes an issue and he can't go, it's a poor signing, but one can trust that the Browns staff have given him a clean bill of health, so we should trust they know what they are doing (Staph jokes notwithstanding).
So where does that leave us now? While still very shaky, our offensive line is set with Shaffer, Steinbach, Fraley, McKinney, and Tucker. That's a very experienced line, but it's also very uninspiring, being loaded with question marks. It's no secret how I feel about Shaffer, who's playing out of position. He belongs at right tackle or even guard. Steinbach is the one true beast on our line. Fraley is a west-coast center playing in a power division. He's smart and technically sound, but faces the toughest set of NT's and DT's in the entire league every Sunday. He'll get pushed around some. McKinney and Tucker are injuries waiting to happen, and I'd be surprised if both guys survive the entire season. Kelly Butler is a solid backup, but if he's asked to start multiple times, the right side of the line is in serious trouble. Sowells is a developemental player who is slated to be another swingman. At this point in his career, that appears to be as a backup for depth purposes. The bottom line is that Savage must draft a 1st day offensive linemen (or two) in order to maintain stability on the offensive line. This team simply can't continue to plug in stopgap players year after year and hope that the results are positive. The draft is the only way to build a solid foundation leading to a winning organization, and while I understand and accept the reasons/excuses that Savage has laid out for us pertaining to his lack of offensive line selections on the first day, that time is over. He selected players who were need positions such as QB (Frye) ILB (Jackson) S (Pool) and WR (Wilson). The moves make sense, but it's now time to address the lines, as there are no more excuses for ignoring the most critical part of both sides of the ball. It's easy to accept selecting Adrian Peterson or Brady Quinn over Joe Thomas because the needs are obvious, even if I vehemently disagree with the basic premise (see my last entry). However, once one gets past the first round, this draft is absolutely loaded with first-day players that could come in and start right away.
Justin Blalock is a guy that I'm very familiar with. You'll see him listed as a right tackle by some scouting services, but he's not, he's a guard in the NFL. At 6'3 320, he's probably too small ("small" being a relative term) to play right tackle, but as an interior player, he can become a guy that has good in the run game and a rock against the pass. He's relied too much on natural brute strength and needs help with his footwork which can be sloppy, but that doesn't stop him from being an elite guard prospect. Experienced, he's been a four-year starter which speaks of durability.
Ben Grubbs is being hailed by some scouts as the best guard to come out in several seasons. It sounds great, but his reputation is built on upside, not current production. Grubbs (6'2 311) has great leverage, which was probably developed during his time as a defensive tackle. He moved to guard full-time in 2004, which means he's still learning the position. He wasn't on anyone's radar until his senior season, which tells you he'll need time to develope, but his potential has a very high ceiling.
Josh Beekman comes from a BC program known for putting tough players into the league. He, like most interior players coming out, relied too much on natural brute strength and not technique. Like Grubbs and Blalock, he's too small (6'1 315) and not quick enough to play tackle, but that doesn't stop them from being great guard prospects. He's not a great athlete and isn't in the same class as Grubbs and Blalock, but he has everything you want in an NFL guard.
There are other guards or college tackles who'll transition to guard at the next level that all have the talent to be first-day selections, and some could easily start as rookies. One of the above will be there when we pick in the 2nd round. I hope Savage finally addresses the line on the first day.
On defense, Washington is set at NT, with Price (a Bengals surprise signing notwithstanding) spelling him on passing downs. Smith becomes a stable piece at one defensive end position, with an aging Roye on the other side. The Browns clearly see something in Price that says he can take over for Washington, but that leaves Roye's position as the glaring weakness. We need another defensive end, and with really none available in free agency, the draft is the only place to acquire one.
In a moment I'm going to gaze into my green-tinted crystal ball and discuss draft scenarios. One of those involve our selection of Adam Carriker, defensive end out of Nebraska. Measured at 6'6 296 at the combine, Carriker weighed in at 291 for his pro-day workout. He's incredibly strong against the run and has a big frame. He's a very good technician, is quick, and instinctual. On what's acknowledged as a fast track, Adam ran a blazing 4.72 on his first pass in the 40, and backed it up with a 4.73. Few know that the 'Huskers run the 3-4, and Carriker played the stronside DE position. His stats, predictably, weren't amazing because of the nature of the position. However, that allows him to fly (somewhat) under the radar while simulatneously preparing him for the grunt work of the NFL. He can put on a few more pounds to get over 300, but at 291, he's plenty strong enough to man the position allready. He's probably locked himself into a top-15 selection, and is one of the three DE jewels in this draft.
The next is Jamaal Anderson, DE out of Arkansas. At 6'5 and 284, he's got enough game to play any of the line positions in a 4-3 scheme and DE in the 3-4. He likely has more rush ability than Carriker, and is often compared to Richard Seymore. Great burst, great motor, fluid athlete, he's likely a top-10 player who's attractive to 4-3 teams as well as 3-4's.
Beyond those two and Alan Branch, you get into the developemental prospects who are either college 3-4 DE's that need to put on weight, or 4-3 DT's that are too slow or lack rush ability at the next level. Carriker's teammate Jay Moore is one of those players, who measured 6'6 and 275. He's a late first day early second day prospect. College DT prospects who fit the bill are Turk McBride of Tennesee (6'2 280), who's upside is good but is still a raw player, and teammate Justin Harrell who's good against the run, allready has the size (6'4 300) and the quickness to play DE in the NFL, but has serious durability issues, having ruptured a biceps tendon. The good news is that he put off surgery so he could play against the Gators. Another is Ryan McBean of OK St. 6'4 286 with good athletic ability and a ton of upside with a strong motor, he's not a very good technician and has questionable instincts. Those are just a few who we'll probably look at.
It would be easy to look at every "need" position on this team and list players in the draft, but I'm allready taking up enough of your time as it is. Instead, let's look at some possible draft-day moves based on what we know right now. There are probably only a couple of hundred possible scenarios for the Browns (tongue in cheek) based upon what happens in the two spots ahead of us, so let's go with what's most likely in the present time frame.
The Raiders are eye-balling Russell (as long as that decrepid bobble-head Al Davis is running the organization, they'll continue to be a doormat, but that's for another rant) due to his huge arm and the teams desire to get back to long ball. Going on that assumption, the Lions and Matt "Yeah I suck but I still have a job" Millen are sitting in the catbirds seat at #2. They've chirped long and hard how they intend to take Joe Thomas, but how much of that should we swallow? They gave Jeff Backus an honest-to-God longterm deal to play left tackle that includes $16 million in guarantees. So are the Lions really going to take a left tackle with the 2nd pick in the entire draft, pay him left tackle and #2 money, then shift him to right tackle? Stupid is as stupid does goes the Forest Gump quote, and in today's NFL, Matt Millen is Forest personified. Still, such a move doesn't make much sense for an organization that lacks defensive players, a QB for the future (Kitna did throw for 4000 yards, but threw more INT's than TD's and mustered a 79 rating), and other positions. With Russell off the board, there are a handful of teams jockeying to get their hands on Brady Quinn. They were all smiles a few weeks ago as reports stated he was falling down the draft. Teams like the Texans and Dolphins have their fingerprints all over Brady and are now feeling the pressure as the reports say Quinn is moving back up. Both of those teams are sitting in the top 10 (at 8 and 9 respectively) and are still high enough where the Lions could get value while also feeling comfortable that a player they could really use would be there. Keep in mind that the Dolphins have two 2nd round draft selections. That makes them a big player to move up, if they so choose. With an aging core of pro-bowl caliber players like Jason Taylor and Zach Thomas matched with the signing of Joey Porter, they need to win now, not build towards the future.
So as of right now, the two most likely scenarios for the Lions are either taking Joe Thomas or trading the pick, presumably for a QB. There was some talk that the Texans may want to move up for Adrian Peterson, but with the signing of Ahman Green to a long-term deal, I don't put much credence in that report.
Let's assume the Lions take Thomas and don't trade the pick. Such is the prevailing logic at this stage of the game. That leaves us with Quinn, Peterson, and Calvin Johnson sitting in our laps. Pardon me while I wipe the drool from my soulpatch. The best player in this draft, and by all acounts, one of the most "can't-miss" prospects of the past decade in Johnson is right there for the taking. I happen to believe that while we can't go wrong with any of those three, the best move is for this organization to take a trade-down deal and stockpile selections. The Bucs are in love with Calvin Johnson, as are numerous other teams. If a team wanted to work a deal with the Browns, they'd have to be in the top-10 allready as well as have a need at that position. That brings the Vikings into the mix. Troy Williamson has been a bust as a 1st round player. The other starter is going to come from a group consisting of Bethel Johnson, Travis Taylor, and Billy McMullen. Ouch. They are sitting there at 7 and would love to get their hands on someone like Johnson. They own the 41st and 72nd selections in this draft. The Dolphins appear to be set with Chambers and Booker at WR, and because of Ronnie Brown, don't have a need at RB. But they would likely love Quinn, who's sitting there in our laps.
It could be a hectic and murderous first round for the Browns as they sit on the clock.
The Falcons at 10 and the Niners at 11 both have big needs at the WR positions and could be suitors. The key here to Johnson is that the Bucs love him so he won't last until the 5th selection. It's rare that the best true player in the board lasts until the 3rd pick, so while the Lions are sitting pretty, so are the Browns. This scenario also works even if the Lions trade the pick so that a team can move up and get Brady Quinn, thus eliminating another possible scenario. I don't feel as though a team will move up to take Johnson, as a team stands a better chance of having the draft-chart math work out with Calvin falling to three instead of two. Why pay him 2nd selection money and give a team 2nd selection compensation when you can pay him 3rd selection money and a team 3rd selection compensation?
So what about those that love Adrian Peterson and don't want the Browns to pass him up? I believe that Thomas makes far more sense to this team (see my last blog entry) but understand the talent and instant upgrade that Peterson represents. In this draft, you people happen to be in luck as there are trade-down scenario's that give the Browns extra picks and still put Peterson in our backfield. The Bucs, Cards, Redskins, Vikings, and Dolphins (picks 4, 5, 6, 7, and 9) are all locked in with running backs. The Texans could take Peterson if he falls into their laps, as they wouldn't have had to trade up to get him. That's a big difference. Yet keep in mind that they remain a possible trade up partner to get Quinn (they've said they aren't interested, which means that they are) The Browns could easily slide to any of those positions and still land Peterson while picking up extra 2nd round selections not only this year, but possibly next year as well.
The Bills represent a team that badly needs a RB and would love Peterson. They could trade with us to land him (they hold the 12th selection) or could move up if we trade down. This is where things become really hazy and prediction becomes complicated with too many variables.
Following the logical course of a trade down under any of these scenario's, who would the Browns be looking at? As noted, Jamaal Anderson or Adam Carriker would be instant starters and cog's for the 3-4. We could also be looking at Levi Brown who, while not in the same sentence as Joe Thomas, is a viable left tackle prospect. As noted above, Peterson remains a possibility anywhere from 4-7. Quinn remains a possibility if teams trade up with us to get Johnson. Then there's Alan Branch, who also becomes an instant starter in the 3-4 and could even become a NT down the road. He's right there at 10 in this draft. Now if we move even further down the charts, players like Leon Hall, CB Michigan, come into the picture. He's the best corner in the draft, but this year that isn't saying much. He's not an instant pro-bowl caliber guy like we've seen come into the league in the past, but he fills an obvious need. With the acquisition of extra 2nd round selections, we can plug in tweeners for the 3-4 as well as interior linemen, so taking a corner doesn't hurt as much as if he were only one of three first day selections. We also may be looking at Marshawn Lynch who's stock fell earlier, but comes into the league as a guy who's going to start immediately. He is that good, even if he's not quite in the same mold as Peterson. He represents reason why the Bills may not move on draft day. Quentin Moses, DE Georgia (6'5 251) is another guy player on our radar. He'll transition to OLB in the 3-4 because of natural pass rush ability while lacking size to play DE in the 4-3 at the next level. He has a good motor and is a fluid athelete who looks as though he can work out in space.
Going into the 2nd and 3rd rounds, we may see guys like Dan Bazuin (6'3, 266) of Central Michigan as an OLB rusher who has a great first step and solid agility as a rusher, as well as Anthony Spencer (6'3 261) out of Purdue who will likely be one of the hotter tweener prospects on the board. We may also look at Joe Staley as a left tackle prospect, but he had an amazing pro-day workout (can be found on the OBR) and may have moved into the latter part of the 1st round. With the age of McGinnest and the lack of potential behind him (Peek, Thompson, Stewart) matched with the lack of true potential at our interior line positions (Matua, Sowells) look for a guard, DE, or OLB/tweener in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.
Having said all that, here's hoping that someone wants Quinn badly enough to move up and take him, so that Joe Thomas falls into our lap. Having Peterson, Thomas, and Johnson all sitting right there means, IMHO, that we can't possibly go wrong no matter what we do with the pick, be that selecting one of those three or trading down. Get out your popcorn, get a good nights sleep, and let your imagination run rampid. Regardless of what we do, it's going to be a good draft, and this team is going to get better very quickly.