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Phil Savage throws the dice........

2007-04-29T18:06:00Z

For a devout Christian, Phil Savage sure does like to gamble.

With two very gutsy moves, the Browns organization made a statement. The question is going to be what that statement is.

Move #1: Trading up for Brady Quinn. One doesn’t have to be a sanitation engineer to recognize garbage when one sees it, and it shouldn’t have taken anyone long to recognize that Charlie Frye was no longer the future QB of the Browns.

Some just didn’t want to accept it.

The organization professed that Derek Anderson (of all people) had closed the gap on Frye. They inquired after David Carr. They flirted with Trent Green. Frye was quietly shopped around the league but with no takers, which is an indictment in and of itself. A quick scan of the interview list showed an inordinate number of college QB’s compared to other positions. Then, finally, Lerner flew half of the city of Cleveland to see Quinn’s workout.

2+2 does in fact equal 4.

So as the Mighty Quinn did his best Aaron Rodgers imitation, Phil Savage got an itchy trigger finger. He saw an opportunity to land the player that he’d considered at #3 and made the deal happen. The gamble was the cost of doing business with the Cowboys, who are well-known as the biggest wheelers and dealers in the league come draft time. In order to secure Brady Quinn, the price was our 2^nd round pick in this year’s draft (#36) and our 1^st next year. One rumor making it around the league is that the Ravens were on the horn with Quinn when the Browns agreed to the demands of the Cowboys. Not only did we land our future QB, but we kept the Ravens from getting a superior prospect.

Here’s the reality of that deal. Like it or not, Frye had fallen out of favor. Whether we got a QB this year or next, we were going to have to spend a high draft pick on a player. It’s quite probable though very speculative to suggest the Browns were going to take one of the 2^nd round-level candidates at 36. Barring such a move, they could have easily spent a 1^st rounder next year on a QB. From that standpoint, they spent their 2008 first round pick in 2007 while landing a guy they really wanted. The cost of getting that player a year early was our 2^nd round selection. So was giving up the 36^th pick in the draft in order to acquire our next QB worth it? Time will tell. We’ve either accelerated the development of this team or set it back by sacrificing draft selections. I believe it to be an acceptable risk.

Move #2: Trading up for Eric Wright. In some ways, the move to bring in the highly talented but character-challenged Wright is as much a gamble as acquiring Quinn. There’s no question that the defense had a huge hole opposite the underrated but oft-injured Leigh(high) Bodden. Wright is a top-15 talent who fell because of accusations of drugs and rape. If he proves that he can keep his nose clean (pun intended) he’d become the rare 2^nd round cornerback who comes right into the league and starts. That would make the trade a raging success. Having painted the rose-colored side of the picture, we have to look at the negatives. Savage has (erringly) preached his desire for Christian players. Talking out of both sides of his mouth isn’t something that Savage is good at. He’s thrown the dice on a serious character question mark in order to fill a desperate need. Wright’s history of leaving USC under bad accusations is a red-flag that the organization chose to ignore. We sacrificed future depth and special teams players in order to move up for our new starting corner. If he finds himself in the papers for all the wrong reasons, Savage’s credibility will suffer immensely.

Getting back to Charlie Frye for a moment, I see a long line of Frye-guys about to take the long walk off the short pier. Hold your horse’s people. The loudest defense of Frye was that he never had a line, and though truer words were never spoken, that excuse/reason holds no water now. With the selection of Joe Thomas, the Browns solidified MULTIPLE positions along the line. In an earlier blog, I opined on the wisdom of taking Thomas over the likes of Quinn (how ironic) and the fragile Peterson. My reasoning was simple: Thomas moves Shaffer over to right tackle where he belongs, which secures that position for the next five years. If Tucker returns with a healthy body and mind, we have a great competition for right tackle, and the loser goes to guard. At this point in his career, Tucker is probably just as well suited to guard as tackle. Thus, we’ve solved multiple positional problems with one selection.

So now Frye has to look over his shoulder at Quinn. However, even though Quinn is a good prospect, he’s not “NFL ready” so to speak. Frye will have the chance to keep his job, but he’ll have to earn it instead of having it handed to him. He will finally have a good line, and with it he loses any excuses for not succeeding. It’s his 3^rd year in the league and his 2^nd as a full-time starter. If he can’t thrive now, he deserves to find the bench.

By the way………..did anyone hear that huge sigh of relief that came out of Berea on Saturday? That was Romeo realizing that his offensive line just got much better while landing a starting corner in the 2^nd round. Like Frye, RAC is out of excuses. If he isn’t pushing .500 entering the middle part of the season, he’s gone and rightfully so. I believe he should have already been fired, but keeping him speaks well of Lerner and Savage and their desire for continuity, even if I feel it’s misguided.

So what of Savage in all this? GM’s tend to get more than one shot at keeping their jobs. Savage could fire RAC and bring in a new coach without losing his gig. However, if Quinn’s accuracy issues aren’t corrected, and if Wright spends more time in jail than on the field, Savage will have sacrificed the future of this team for two players who aren’t producing. In that regard, we’ve either improved significantly very quickly or taken several steps back just a fast.

If Quinn doesn’t develop, I hate to think of the bitterness welling inside of us all as the Cowboys use our #1 pick to make their team better, but if he does, Savage will be the toast of the town. It all hinges on Quinn.

With our free agency spending spree apparently over, it's time to focus on the draft.........

2007-03-15T20:49:00Z

I could have done myself and everyone else a favor yesterday by waiting another day to create a new post, but the fates and my longwindedness are unkind mistresses. The signings of Robaire Smith and Seth McKinney have changed the landscape of where we'll go in free agency as well the upcoming draft. Savage just solidified two positions that were unacceptably thin, and according to his own words, effectively closed the proverbial checkbook on this free agent period for the organization, Shaun Smith and his situation notwithstanding. Invetiably, the team will sign another player here or there. Some may be nothing more than filler, while othes may be unexpected cuts that can really help the team, but with the draft a mere six weeks away and the pro-day reports coming in on a daily basis, it's time to start focusing on the most important aspect of player acquisition.

While the modern free agency period of NFL football can help a team dig out of a hole, there are no teams currently in the league that draft poorly who simultaneously win on Sundays. We need look no further than our own historical archives to see how ineptitude leads a team to the cellar. Far be it from me to turn this into a rant against Dwight Clark and that regime, suffice it to say they exemplify how poor draft selections can cripple a franchise. To that end, Savage is in fantastic position to strike quickly and acquire some amazing talent (at the expense of a disasterous 2006 season) but with so many glaring holes on the roster, he simply can't afford to miss. I've made my position clear on how I feel about drafting a QB in my previous entry, so I won't bore everyone with redundant repetition (though you'll no doubt suffer terribly as I suck all the air out of the room). I'll opine concerning the holes that remain as well as the various likely (and perhaps unlikley) draft-day scenarios that may play out. We've all learned as recently as last year that things don't always go according to plan. Reggie Bush sure did some amazing things with the Texans this past season, wouldn't you agree..............

Robaire Smith brings the workman-like skillset to the 3-4 defensive end position. Big (6'4 310) and strong, Smith has experience in the 3-4 and understands the position. Never blessed with anything remotely close to pass-rush ability, he has always been known as a guy who can hold his own at the point of attack. Human nature has a nasty habit of often labeling players based not on what they bring to the table, but how they are perceived on any given team. Until this past season, Peyton Manning had been labeled as a gifted quarterback who couldn't win the big one. Such was an opinion that I have never agreed with, as I always look for what a person is capable of, not what he's done in the past. Several years ago, Manning was said to not have it in him to beat the Patriots. He eventually got past Bill Bellyache and his roaving band of Chowderheads, yet was still tagged as a guy who couldn't win the big one. He's since smashed all of those sentiments and will go down in history as, possibly, the greatest QB to ever play the game. Likewise for Bill Cowher, who was always labeled as the modern Marty Schottenheimer, being a really good coach who wasn't great because he hadn't won the Super Bowl.

Whoops.

So we come back to Robaire Smith, who's been with such stellar teams over the past four seasons as the 5-11 Titans, the lowly Texans for the next two, and back with the Titans last season. Because of guilt by association, people aren't aware of just how solid Smith really is. Since becoming a full-time player in 2002, he's missed exactly one game. If nothing else, that's the kind of durability that Browns fans should get excited over. So what does he bring to the table as a 3-4 DE? Smith is a guy that has enough strength to take on a double-team and not give ground. He's not going to be the kind of player that will explode through a gap and sack the QB, as that's not his game. Knuckling down in the trench and stalemating his men, Smith will allow our linebackers more freedom to work the gaps and run to the sidelines. In that regard, he'll be able to do things that McKinley never could, who, as it turns out, is better suited as a 4-3 player. Smith isn't fast, but has the ability to slide down the line and make plays. He gets a good push on obvious passing situations, which should help the playmakers of the 3-4, the OLB's, create havoc. Now make no mistake about this. Smith isn't going to the pro-bowl next season. If he musters two sacks and 50 total tackles for us it will have been a banner year for him and the organization. His job is to simply eat blockers, nothing more, and in that regard, he's an instant upgrade over what we've had the past couple of years. The only true downside with this signing is his age, as he's going to be 30 in November. Still, with the kind of durability that he's shown, that number is far better than the worn-down 27 years of Jamal Lewis. By the way, in case anyone is still interested in the teams he played on, know that he was part of the 2002 Titans that went 11-5 and the 2003 Titans that went 12-4, so yes, he does know what winning feels like, and can impress that upon the younger players. I hope you feel a little better about the signing than you did just a few minutes ago.

Seth McKinney is a starting-caliber swingman who's coming off of a wasted 2006 season. A first-day selection of the Dolphins out of Texas A&M in 2002, McKinney had found a home as a center but can also play guard. He's a low-risk player that will help the team IF, and that's a big if, his neck injury doesn't derail his career. I have always placed the highest value on players that can work other positions, and with our questionable state at the center position, a guy like McKinney represents great value. He's most likely penciled in as our new starting right guard, but can play any of the interior positions, just like Steinbach. At 6'3 312, he's strong enough to get a good push in the run game and tends to be a solid technician in pass protection. Somewhat like Fraley, he can be beaten by power players, but what else is new if you're not a pro-bowl lineman? Of course if his neck becomes an issue and he can't go, it's a poor signing, but one can trust that the Browns staff have given him a clean bill of health, so we should trust they know what they are doing (Staph jokes notwithstanding).

So where does that leave us now? While still very shaky, our offensive line is set with Shaffer, Steinbach, Fraley, McKinney, and Tucker. That's a very experienced line, but it's also very uninspiring, being loaded with question marks. It's no secret how I feel about Shaffer, who's playing out of position. He belongs at right tackle or even guard. Steinbach is the one true beast on our line. Fraley is a west-coast center playing in a power division. He's smart and technically sound, but faces the toughest set of NT's and DT's in the entire league every Sunday. He'll get pushed around some. McKinney and Tucker are injuries waiting to happen, and I'd be surprised if both guys survive the entire season. Kelly Butler is a solid backup, but if he's asked to start multiple times, the right side of the line is in serious trouble. Sowells is a developemental player who is slated to be another swingman. At this point in his career, that appears to be as a backup for depth purposes. The bottom line is that Savage must draft a 1st day offensive linemen (or two) in order to maintain stability on the offensive line. This team simply can't continue to plug in stopgap players year after year and hope that the results are positive. The draft is the only way to build a solid foundation leading to a winning organization, and while I understand and accept the reasons/excuses that Savage has laid out for us pertaining to his lack of offensive line selections on the first day, that time is over. He selected players who were need positions such as QB (Frye) ILB (Jackson) S (Pool) and WR (Wilson). The moves make sense, but it's now time to address the lines, as there are no more excuses for ignoring the most critical part of both sides of the ball. It's easy to accept selecting Adrian Peterson or Brady Quinn over Joe Thomas because the needs are obvious, even if I vehemently disagree with the basic premise (see my last entry). However, once one gets past the first round, this draft is absolutely loaded with first-day players that could come in and start right away.

Justin Blalock is a guy that I'm very familiar with. You'll see him listed as a right tackle by some scouting services, but he's not, he's a guard in the NFL. At 6'3 320, he's probably too small ("small" being a relative term) to play right tackle, but as an interior player, he can become a guy that has good in the run game and a rock against the pass. He's relied too much on natural brute strength and needs help with his footwork which can be sloppy, but that doesn't stop him from being an elite guard prospect. Experienced, he's been a four-year starter which speaks of durability.

Ben Grubbs is being hailed by some scouts as the best guard to come out in several seasons. It sounds great, but his reputation is built on upside, not current production. Grubbs (6'2 311) has great leverage, which was probably developed during his time as a defensive tackle. He moved to guard full-time in 2004, which means he's still learning the position. He wasn't on anyone's radar until his senior season, which tells you he'll need time to develope, but his potential has a very high ceiling.

Josh Beekman comes from a BC program known for putting tough players into the league. He, like most interior players coming out, relied too much on natural brute strength and not technique. Like Grubbs and Blalock, he's too small (6'1 315) and not quick enough to play tackle, but that doesn't stop them from being great guard prospects. He's not a great athlete and isn't in the same class as Grubbs and Blalock, but he has everything you want in an NFL guard.

There are other guards or college tackles who'll transition to guard at the next level that all have the talent to be first-day selections, and some could easily start as rookies. One of the above will be there when we pick in the 2nd round. I hope Savage finally addresses the line on the first day.

On defense, Washington is set at NT, with Price (a Bengals surprise signing notwithstanding) spelling him on passing downs. Smith becomes a stable piece at one defensive end position, with an aging Roye on the other side. The Browns clearly see something in Price that says he can take over for Washington, but that leaves Roye's position as the glaring weakness. We need another defensive end, and with really none available in free agency, the draft is the only place to acquire one.

In a moment I'm going to gaze into my green-tinted crystal ball and discuss draft scenarios. One of those involve our selection of Adam Carriker, defensive end out of Nebraska. Measured at 6'6 296 at the combine, Carriker weighed in at 291 for his pro-day workout. He's incredibly strong against the run and has a big frame. He's a very good technician, is quick, and instinctual. On what's acknowledged as a fast track, Adam ran a blazing 4.72 on his first pass in the 40, and backed it up with a 4.73. Few know that the 'Huskers run the 3-4, and Carriker played the stronside DE position. His stats, predictably, weren't amazing because of the nature of the position. However, that allows him to fly (somewhat) under the radar while simulatneously preparing him for the grunt work of the NFL. He can put on a few more pounds to get over 300, but at 291, he's plenty strong enough to man the position allready. He's probably locked himself into a top-15 selection, and is one of the three DE jewels in this draft.

The next is Jamaal Anderson, DE out of Arkansas. At 6'5 and 284, he's got enough game to play any of the line positions in a 4-3 scheme and DE in the 3-4. He likely has more rush ability than Carriker, and is often compared to Richard Seymore. Great burst, great motor, fluid athlete, he's likely a top-10 player who's attractive to 4-3 teams as well as 3-4's.

Beyond those two and Alan Branch, you get into the developemental prospects who are either college 3-4 DE's that need to put on weight, or 4-3 DT's that are too slow or lack rush ability at the next level. Carriker's teammate Jay Moore is one of those players, who measured 6'6 and 275. He's a late first day early second day prospect. College DT prospects who fit the bill are Turk McBride of Tennesee (6'2 280), who's upside is good but is still a raw player, and teammate Justin Harrell who's good against the run, allready has the size (6'4 300) and the quickness to play DE in the NFL, but has serious durability issues, having ruptured a biceps tendon. The good news is that he put off surgery so he could play against the Gators. Another is Ryan McBean of OK St. 6'4 286 with good athletic ability and a ton of upside with a strong motor, he's not a very good technician and has questionable instincts. Those are just a few who we'll probably look at.

It would be easy to look at every "need" position on this team and list players in the draft, but I'm allready taking up enough of your time as it is. Instead, let's look at some possible draft-day moves based on what we know right now. There are probably only a couple of hundred possible scenarios for the Browns (tongue in cheek) based upon what happens in the two spots ahead of us, so let's go with what's most likely in the present time frame.

The Raiders are eye-balling Russell (as long as that decrepid bobble-head Al Davis is running the organization, they'll continue to be a doormat, but that's for another rant) due to his huge arm and the teams desire to get back to long ball. Going on that assumption, the Lions and Matt "Yeah I suck but I still have a job" Millen are sitting in the catbirds seat at #2. They've chirped long and hard how they intend to take Joe Thomas, but how much of that should we swallow? They gave Jeff Backus an honest-to-God longterm deal to play left tackle that includes $16 million in guarantees. So are the Lions really going to take a left tackle with the 2nd pick in the entire draft, pay him left tackle and #2 money, then shift him to right tackle? Stupid is as stupid does goes the Forest Gump quote, and in today's NFL, Matt Millen is Forest personified. Still, such a move doesn't make much sense for an organization that lacks defensive players, a QB for the future (Kitna did throw for 4000 yards, but threw more INT's than TD's and mustered a 79 rating), and other positions. With Russell off the board, there are a handful of teams jockeying to get their hands on Brady Quinn. They were all smiles a few weeks ago as reports stated he was falling down the draft. Teams like the Texans and Dolphins have their fingerprints all over Brady and are now feeling the pressure as the reports say Quinn is moving back up. Both of those teams are sitting in the top 10 (at 8 and 9 respectively) and are still high enough where the Lions could get value while also feeling comfortable that a player they could really use would be there. Keep in mind that the Dolphins have two 2nd round draft selections. That makes them a big player to move up, if they so choose. With an aging core of pro-bowl caliber players like Jason Taylor and Zach Thomas matched with the signing of Joey Porter, they need to win now, not build towards the future.

So as of right now, the two most likely scenarios for the Lions are either taking Joe Thomas or trading the pick, presumably for a QB. There was some talk that the Texans may want to move up for Adrian Peterson, but with the signing of Ahman Green to a long-term deal, I don't put much credence in that report.

Let's assume the Lions take Thomas and don't trade the pick. Such is the prevailing logic at this stage of the game. That leaves us with Quinn, Peterson, and Calvin Johnson sitting in our laps. Pardon me while I wipe the drool from my soulpatch. The best player in this draft, and by all acounts, one of the most "can't-miss" prospects of the past decade in Johnson is right there for the taking. I happen to believe that while we can't go wrong with any of those three, the best move is for this organization to take a trade-down deal and stockpile selections. The Bucs are in love with Calvin Johnson, as are numerous other teams. If a team wanted to work a deal with the Browns, they'd have to be in the top-10 allready as well as have a need at that position. That brings the Vikings into the mix. Troy Williamson has been a bust as a 1st round player. The other starter is going to come from a group consisting of Bethel Johnson, Travis Taylor, and Billy McMullen. Ouch. They are sitting there at 7 and would love to get their hands on someone like Johnson. They own the 41st and 72nd selections in this draft. The Dolphins appear to be set with Chambers and Booker at WR, and because of Ronnie Brown, don't have a need at RB. But they would likely love Quinn, who's sitting there in our laps.

It could be a hectic and murderous first round for the Browns as they sit on the clock.

The Falcons at 10 and the Niners at 11 both have big needs at the WR positions and could be suitors. The key here to Johnson is that the Bucs love him so he won't last until the 5th selection. It's rare that the best true player in the board lasts until the 3rd pick, so while the Lions are sitting pretty, so are the Browns. This scenario also works even if the Lions trade the pick so that a team can move up and get Brady Quinn, thus eliminating another possible scenario. I don't feel as though a team will move up to take Johnson, as a team stands a better chance of having the draft-chart math work out with Calvin falling to three instead of two. Why pay him 2nd selection money and give a team 2nd selection compensation when you can pay him 3rd selection money and a team 3rd selection compensation?

So what about those that love Adrian Peterson and don't want the Browns to pass him up? I believe that Thomas makes far more sense to this team (see my last blog entry) but understand the talent and instant upgrade that Peterson represents. In this draft, you people happen to be in luck as there are trade-down scenario's that give the Browns extra picks and still put Peterson in our backfield. The Bucs, Cards, Redskins, Vikings, and Dolphins (picks 4, 5, 6, 7, and 9) are all locked in with running backs. The Texans could take Peterson if he falls into their laps, as they wouldn't have had to trade up to get him. That's a big difference. Yet keep in mind that they remain a possible trade up partner to get Quinn (they've said they aren't interested, which means that they are) The Browns could easily slide to any of those positions and still land Peterson while picking up extra 2nd round selections not only this year, but possibly next year as well.

The Bills represent a team that badly needs a RB and would love Peterson. They could trade with us to land him (they hold the 12th selection) or could move up if we trade down. This is where things become really hazy and prediction becomes complicated with too many variables.

Following the logical course of a trade down under any of these scenario's, who would the Browns be looking at? As noted, Jamaal Anderson or Adam Carriker would be instant starters and cog's for the 3-4. We could also be looking at Levi Brown who, while not in the same sentence as Joe Thomas, is a viable left tackle prospect. As noted above, Peterson remains a possibility anywhere from 4-7. Quinn remains a possibility if teams trade up with us to get Johnson. Then there's Alan Branch, who also becomes an instant starter in the 3-4 and could even become a NT down the road. He's right there at 10 in this draft. Now if we move even further down the charts, players like Leon Hall, CB Michigan, come into the picture. He's the best corner in the draft, but this year that isn't saying much. He's not an instant pro-bowl caliber guy like we've seen come into the league in the past, but he fills an obvious need. With the acquisition of extra 2nd round selections, we can plug in tweeners for the 3-4 as well as interior linemen, so taking a corner doesn't hurt as much as if he were only one of three first day selections. We also may be looking at Marshawn Lynch who's stock fell earlier, but comes into the league as a guy who's going to start immediately. He is that good, even if he's not quite in the same mold as Peterson. He represents reason why the Bills may not move on draft day. Quentin Moses, DE Georgia (6'5 251) is another guy player on our radar. He'll transition to OLB in the 3-4 because of natural pass rush ability while lacking size to play DE in the 4-3 at the next level. He has a good motor and is a fluid athelete who looks as though he can work out in space.

Going into the 2nd and 3rd rounds, we may see guys like Dan Bazuin (6'3, 266) of Central Michigan as an OLB rusher who has a great first step and solid agility as a rusher, as well as Anthony Spencer (6'3 261) out of Purdue who will likely be one of the hotter tweener prospects on the board. We may also look at Joe Staley as a left tackle prospect, but he had an amazing pro-day workout (can be found on the OBR) and may have moved into the latter part of the 1st round. With the age of McGinnest and the lack of potential behind him (Peek, Thompson, Stewart) matched with the lack of true potential at our interior line positions (Matua, Sowells) look for a guard, DE, or OLB/tweener in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

Having said all that, here's hoping that someone wants Quinn badly enough to move up and take him, so that Joe Thomas falls into our lap. Having Peterson, Thomas, and Johnson all sitting right there means, IMHO, that we can't possibly go wrong no matter what we do with the pick, be that selecting one of those three or trading down. Get out your popcorn, get a good nights sleep, and let your imagination run rampid. Regardless of what we do, it's going to be a good draft, and this team is going to get better very quickly.

Free agency, the Draft, and our Browns: Where we are and where we should go.........

2007-03-15T00:29:00Z

Having essentially finished "Phase-One" of the free agency period, the time where organizations throw boatloads of money at the tier-one players, it's time to take stock of what we've done, and to evaluate where we might go from here.

Who we've added:

The Browns have inked Eric Steinbach, Kenny Wright, Antwan Peek, Jamal Lewis, and have traded for Tim Carter.

Steinbach was one of the "Big Three" guards available in free agency. While it can be argued that he isn't the best pure guard of the bunch (such a distinction most likely goes to Chris Dielman) I believe it's accurate to state that he's the best lineman that was available in free agency. Despite talk that suggested the Bucs were interested in him as a left tackle, that's probably his least productive position on the entire line. He's one of the best guards in the league from a purely technical standpoint, having very quick recognition skills, excellent leverage for a man his height, and is accurate when finding targets at the second level. His only true question mark is his power, but he's accounted well for himself having played his entire, albeit short career in the AFC North. He's familiar with the Casey Hampton's and Haloti Ngata's of the world. We know what he is and what he isn't, and when it comes to throwing big money at free agents, familiarity and understanding is the vast majority of the battle. It's my belief that he could be a pro-bowl center in this league, which is why I'll risk sounding like a Homer when I say we signed the best guard available. Make no mistake about it. The Browns still have questions at the center position as well as right guard. Keeping Hank Fraley was the right move to make, but he's a finesse center in a power division. He's smart and understands the position, but is limited athletically and has been pushed around by the various powerful defensive linemen in the AFC North. Bentley is a huge question mark, and nobody really knows if he can ever return to the league, let alone the form that made him the jewel of the 2005 free agency period. Down the road, having the option of moving Steinbach to center gives the Browns the ability to adapt not only to free agency, but the draft as well.

The signing of Kenny Wright really can't be graded just yet. Is he a starter? Is he a nickle? Only Phil Savage can answer that question, and I don't know that even he knows the exact answer. If Wright is depth, then the Browns have landed a very good corner who brings size, toughness, and a physical presence to the position. Wright has bounced around the league, having now landed with his fifth team. His days as a starter should be over, as he's reached that seemingly magical age of thirty (He turns in September) where corners and running backs lose their burst. Wright has always done his best work when taking on a man-to-man role as a corner, but has suffered the most when asked to be a zone-corner. His effectiveness is solely dependant on how much pass rush our linebackers can generate. If we can get something from anyone not named Wimbley, Wright will look like a great signing. If he's forced to cover longer because we can't get to the QB, he's going to look like the big, stiff corner that he is out in space.

Antwan Peek, like Kenny Wright, is excellent as a depth/role-player but very suspect as a starter. He has the pass rush ability that Matt Stewart doesn't have and has shown that he can play well in space, but he isn't physical enough when taking on blockers and is a little short on size as a full-time 3-4 OLB. If he comes in on pure passing downs, he can contribute, but as a full-time player he's going to be overmatched more times than not. With Wimbley being an every-down contributor, there's alot of depth with Stewart and Peek, but if either guy is forced into the starting lineup, the defensive side of the ball will have serious issues.

Jamal Lewis is an interesting acquisition. When right, Lewis is a legitimate back who can break tackles and carry the load. Of course the reason he was available at all is because at the ripe young age of 27, there isn't much left on his tires. Injuries and wear-and-tear have zapped him of the burst that made him a 2000-yard back in 2003, which seems like a lifetime ago. As a pure runner, there were few equals in the league. He runs with excellent balance and vision, is quicker than one would expect for a man his size, and always gains the extra yards after contact. However, he's been nothing special as a receiver and despite his imposing size, isn't an accomplished blocker. Still, the question will be whether or not there's enough left in the tank to make this a good signing. With only a one-year contract, the organization isn't locked into the guy should he prove to be a poor decision.

Tim Carter is going to have a chance to win the 3rd receiver spot. Talented but wildly unproductive, Carter has struggled with injuries and concentration during his time with the Giants. He has good size, excellent burst, speed, and athletic ability, but isn't a great route runner, has concentration issues when going after the ball, and doesn't always understand how to run routes in zone coverages. The Giants tried to give Carter one more chance prior to last season, having signed him for one more year, but his inability to take his game to the next level resulted in his availability. He can be a deep threat who'll stretch the field, but nobody really knows if he can become more than the huge dissapointment that he was in New York.

Who we've lost:

Dennis Northcutt, Brian Russell, Daylon McCutcheon, Terrelle Smith, traded Reuben Droughns.

Dennis Northcutt is an all-pro caliber punt returner. Too bad he could never translate that ability into his role as a receiver. Poor hands and zero ability to fight for the ball doomed his time here. Often pining for a starting role, he was given multiple opportunities to take the job but always failed. He's simply too small and weak to take the pounding as a starter and does his best work in the slot, where his lack of reliable hands further handicapped the Browns passing game. He'll be missed as a return man but not as a receiver and most certainly not as a personality, where he was often critical of the town and it's players.

Brian Russell played reliable, if unspectacular football for the Browns over the past two seasons. More of a true center-fielder, Russell understands the game and knows how to put himself in the right positions. As a tackler and cover man he lacks the quickness to be a force but as a cog in a well-oiled machine he can be a solid player. His signing was a good one by Savage, but his signing by the Seahawks is somewhat of a head scratcher, where he'll compete against Mike Green and Michael Boulware at Safety. The 'Hawks gave Deon Grant a large deal to man the other safety position, so it's possible that they may envision Russell as a nickle-back.

During his prime days as a player, McCutcheon was a very reliable and solid starter. Physical against the run and smart in zones, he was a pleasant surprise for the expansion Browns. However, age and injury zapped him of the step that he couldn't afford to lose.

Terrelle Smith is known as a very good lead blocker. That reputation has been well-earned having blocked for multiple thousand yard backs in Reuben Droughns, Deuce McCalister, and Ricky Williams. As a pure fullback who's job is to find his assignment and open a hole, Smith is about as good as there is in the league. Yet as good as he is in that role, he's equally ineffective outside of it. He moves poorly in space, moves poorly with the ball in his hands, and is an inadequate receiver. Look up the term "one-dimensional" in the dictionary and you may just find a picture of Terrelle Smith. With the tutoring of Vickers, a player known more for his versatility than his blocking, Smith's time was coming to an end.

After a stellar 2005 season where he became the first Browns back in more than two decades to rush for more than 1200 yards, Reuben Droughns took a major step backwards in 2006, where injuries and off the field incidents derailed what was going to be a good Browns career. A versatile back who can run and pass block as well as play special teams and catch, Droughns brings good value to most any NFL team. Not an elite runner, Droughns never-the-less dished out more punishment than he took, and while that endeared him to fans, it also created alot of fumbles when matched to his upright running style. Though he's not had a ton of wear and tear, having only been a full-time back for three seasons in the league, his age and his style have relegated him to a part-time ball carrier. The Browns wanted to go with a more gifted player in the short-term, where Droughns' contract and poor 2006 season made him expendable.

Savage has made some solid moves, but there's still a ton of work to be done. The organization shouldn't hope that Wright can man the starting position opposite Lee Bodden, as that would be a fatal mistake. Bodden is an excellent cover-corner who's no longer a secret around the league. Teams won't throw at him as long as someone like Wright is out there. Furthermore, as good as Bodden is, heathy and reliable are things he's not. Keeping Wright as a starter means very poor depth if Bodden goes down. There aren't any corners worthy of a top-5 pick in the 2007 draft, and teams don't get rookie corners who can start in the 2nd round. Savage needs to make a move to either bolster depth or solidify the other starting position.

On the offensive line, the team still needs help. Even before his bout with a still undisclosed mental illness, Ryan Tucker was an aging player who's begun to break down. A quality tackle in the league, injuries and age are taking their toll on him, and his contract isn't exactly a bargain. Shaffer is not a quality NFL left tackle. He has slow feet which contribute to poor technique. He's a mauler who can be beaten around the corner or by brute strength. I maintain that he was always signed to be the eventual replacement for Tucker, and is only at left tackle until we find a real player to take over. Like LJ Shelton, as long as players of Shaffer's caliber are out on the island, the Browns line will suffer. Then there's the right guard position. We need another starter either through the draft, or via the 2nd tier of free agent players. Sowells is a long-term project who's not even close to starting, and nobody else on the bench is ready to step up.

That's where Joe Thomas comes into play.

There is a very large sentiment towards taking Adrian Peterson, and from a need standpoint, it's hard to argue with the logic. Peterson is the elite running back prospect in this draft. He has the size and speed (6'2 220, 4.40 in the 40) to be a pro-bowler for years. The one knock is his durability which is a very legitimate concern. If it weren't for his injuries, he'd be right there with Calvin Johnson as a sure-fire "can't-miss" player in this draft. Because of that issue, taking Joe Thomas makes the most sense for this organization.

Drafting Peterson solves one problem for this team down the road, which is the half-back position. However, Joe Thomas, while not likely to contribute as much as Peterson in the first year, represents a solution to TWO problems instead of one. Taking Thomas moves Shaffer to a position where he belongs while simultaneously solving our left tackle position. In a worst-case scenario where Shaffer fails to lock down right tackle or even right guard, the Browns have at least solved left tackle which has been a bane of this franchise for decades.I would also argue that it's far easier finding a legitimate running back than it is finding a legitimate left tackle. There are examples every year of teams acquiring backs who are good enough to take a good team to the Super Bowl. Just this past offseason, the Jets landed Thomas Jones (You remember........of the Super Bowl bound Bears) for what was essentially an exchange of 2nd round draft positions. The year before, we landed Droughns, a 1200 yard back, for failed defensive players that didn't fit our system and didn't do anything for the Bronco's this season. I could go on and on, but there's no need. Running backs that are good enough can be found all over the place. The same can't be said for left tackles.

Now I could go on to break down what it would mean to take Jamarcus Russell or Brady Quinn, but haven't we learned enough lessons over the past decade in this league? Every year there are teams that lack big-name QB's who go far into the playoffs because their teams are solid. This year, Charlie Frye could have quarterbacked the Bears to the Super Bowl. We're not going to be a significantly better team by taking Quinn, who won't do anything more for this team than Frye would in his third year. The truth is that this organization won't win games on a consistent basis until the lines are shored up, and right now, we have holes all over those lines.

Speaking of QB's, Trent Green is sitting out there waiting to be had. Since we have hardly tapped into our $30 or so million in cap room, sending the Chiefs a 2nd day pick for a QB who has plenty left in the tank should be a no-brainer. Here's some things you may not know about Green:

Yes, he's 37. That seems old, right? Not in football years it isn't, at least not when you really look at the man and his career. Green didn't start an NFL game until he was 28 years old. Yes, you've read that correctly. His first start in this league, in fact his first action in this league, came in 1998 with the Redskins. Prior to that, he'd taken one snap the previous year and not one single snap since he'd come into the league back in 1993. He then missed the entire 1999 season with that blown knee. Now, starting in 2000 with the Chiefs he hadn't missed a start in five seasons, mustering QB ratings in the 90's in four-straight seasons from 2002-2005. No team is going to pay him his $7.2 million contract number this year, so trading for him and restructuring his deal makes a ton of sense for a team without an answer at QB. Maybe Frye can be a serviceable starter in this league and maybe he can't (I'm betting he can't, but the book is still open), yet there's no comparison between he and Green. Even at 37 (Green will turn that age in July) he has the NFL body of a 31 or 32 year old. Even if he mans the position for a year or two only, that's a year or two we have to determine if Frye is the man or not, and we have the cap space to make such a deal happen. The one arguement that invevitably comes up with Green is this: He couldn't put up those numbers behind THIS line. Well guess what folks........"this line" allready has a pro-bowl level guard, and will inevitably have another quality guard soon. With a decent center and two quality guards, someone like Green could easily muster a rating in the 80's, which is light years beyond what Frye can do right now. Getting Green would be the right thing to do.

Now, what about QB's in the draft?

One way or another, one of the big-two QB's or Joe Thomas will be there when we pick. If we don't select Thomas or Peterson, we should find a suitor for the QB's and make a trade. Taking someone who's not the "sexy" pick such as Branch would shore up part of the line while landing us quite possibly a future #1 pick or at least another #2 this year. That #2 should turn into a starter somewhere on this team, and this team needs more startering caliber players in order to get better.

Speaking of Branch, that brings us to a very poor defense. McKinley is still a long-shot but most likely gone and Roye is nearing the end. During his prime, Roye was a very good 3-4 DE but those days are over. Washington played better than most fans give him credit for last year, but he doesn't have much left in the tank. Yes the Browns have signed Bengals DT Shaun Smith to an offer sheet, but there's more work to be done. Word is (no freakin' Roger Brown references in my blog please, thanks *L*) we're very close to signing Robaire Smith, yet that would leave one more position to fill. Branch would fill that other hole and solidify several problems.

So what makes more sense in the draft? A QB or RB on offense, or a LT or DT/DE on defense? Obviously the latter are the right moves, and I can only hope that Savage is smart enough to understand it.

That's enough of a rant for now. You'll forgive my longwindedness (yes yes, War and Peace was shorter, that one never gets old) but it is what it is.

-Ribbit

Can you be patient?

2007-02-23T04:36:00Z

PATIENCE.

It's the one word that football fans across the country dread to hear, a concept that represents past failures, current hardships, and a future that has no guarantees.

A great philosopher (or perhaps a fortune cookie) once proclaimed patience to be a virtue. If that is in fact the case, then the good fans of Cleveland should applaud themselves for their moral excellence. In eight short (ok, very long) years, the Browns have been a perennial expansion team, following failed regime with failed regime, and landing smack-dab right back in the top-five of yet another draft. Nevermind the time that passed between the team leaving for Baltimore and the time when it was replaced with........something other than.

It's a good thing the impending free agent period and upcoming draft carry such excitement, because outside of this window, the city of Cleveland has had very little to be excited about. In fact, besides a five second window some four-plus years ago when a pass left the hands of Kelly Holcomb and bounced off the hands of Dennis Northcutt, the Browns have hardly been worth getting excited about at all.

So why should the city believe that their patience will finally be rewarded? The short answer is: They shouldn't, at least not yet.

Phil Savage was brought in with the reputation of being an elite scout, a man who knew good risks from bad when it came to the crapshoot that is the Annual Player Selection Meeting, commonly referred to as the NFL draft. To that end, he's been hit and miss with his first two attempts, but in all fairness, it's too soon to judge. He's acknowledged one of the teams biggest weaknesses by bringing in several new starters along the offensive line. Some were short-term fixes designed to plug the holes in the dam, while one was supposed to be the anchor for the next six-to-eight years. We know how that turned out. He inherited a team filled with has-been's and never-wasses. He was very clear when stating that this was going to be a long-term process, not one filled with short-term fixes leading to promises of a Lombardi Trophy. Some players looked like long-term solutions, others like failed experiments. For every Wimbley there's a Thompson, for every Bodden a McCutcheon. Even when things appear to be going right for a guy like Winslow, his carriage turns into a pumpkin and he ends up with Microfracture surgery. Savage's job certainly isn't an easy one. So now he gets another crack at a great player, his reward for finishing dead-last in the AFC North once again. This we know for sure: The pick needs to be more like Wimbley and less like Edwards, who, while talented, has proven to be a head-case and the posterchild for what's wrong with today's NFL. So what does Savage have to work with in the upcoming months?

We know that the Browns are the proud parents of around $27 million dollars in cap space, a fat baby heavier than all but about five others. That's the good news. The bad news is that there's very few prized players to be acquired and a ton of holes to fill, so the big number suddenly becomes much smaller. Ying and Yang be an evil concept. It feels somewhat like patience, doesn't it?

We know the Browns will be picking no worse than fourth and thirty-fifth in the draft. That's again good news (assuming one managed to banish the nightmare that was the 2006 season from his or her memory). The bad news is that there's a chance we could be facing a situation where we're making a decision on taking a wide receiver or a quarterback, neither position fixing the weakest parts of the roster. Ce la vie. If Savage manages to do what all other GM's in the league have done over the past decade, which is tamper like Hell at the combine, he should manage to lure at least a couple marquee names to Cleveland. If he's late to the party, he could be stuck holding a bag filled with money but nobody worth spending it on. All dressed up but nowhere to go? It's safe to say he won't allow that to happen, as LeCharles Bentley can attest. Still, there are more holes on this team than Savage can address in one offseason (where have we heard that before?). McKinley went hot and cold throughout the year and Roye's age showed. Washington put in a good body of work, but he's not too far from waking up in the morning and asking himself which Bingo hall he's going to attend that evening. Options for 3-4 trench players are limited. Fortunately, there are several solid if unspectacular names available at guard, where the team needs two new starters. 'Druzzi got by on guts last year, but he's been getting by on that reputation far too long now. Coleman regressed badly and should have Mayflower on speed-dial. Sowells? A project who's been hit with the dreaded "swingman" tag, which usually means he's not good enough to start. Shaffer was always a candidate to be moved and clearly doesn't look like a solid NFL left tackle. His feet and balance simply aren't good enough. With Tucker running on fumes and struggling with demon's that we can only guess at, the team may get lucky and have Joe Thomas fall to them. Wishful thinking? Perhaps, but it never hurts to dream. Then there's the sad case of Gary Baxter who's a longshot to get back to the league. Signing Nate Clements would shore up the corner position while simulataneously replacing the soon-to-be departed Dennis Northcutt as the punt returner. His pricetag will be steep, but when one considers the costs involved in paying two seperate players high-end money to fill both duties, the money becomes far more palatable.

So with all that in mind, what do we really know? The odds are good that the Browns will be a better team this upcoming season than they were during the previous one, though the odds are poor that they'll be markedly improved. So will that be enough to keep the fanbase patient?

That's the real question.

What's the magic marker here? Four wins in the first eight games? Two in the first four? How about four of the first ten? Are we looking for improvement from key players, or simply more wins? One school of thought says it's now time to win games, while the other says this was a true five-year plan, and that developement from key players like Winslow, Edwards, and Frye is what we should look for. In all honesty, it should be a little of both, but even the loudest calls for patience become subdued during a three-game losing streak.

The bottom line to this equation is that a .500 record is the attainable goal, but it shouldn't be the line in the sand that determines whether or not an entire season was a success or a failure. It would be wise for the fans of the Cleveland Browns to try to exercise a little more of that word which no fan wants to hear.

-Ribbit