Cow Patties: The Blog

April 2008 - Posts

• A Midsummer Night's Nightmare

  SCENE: Jacobs Field on a random summer's night. Closer Joe Borowski has been brought in to close out a two-run lead for the home team. We pick up the action with a conference on the mound that precedes Borowski's first hitter. Joining Borowski in the conference are first baseman Ryan Garko, shortstop Jhonny Peralta, second baseman Asdrubal Cabrera, catcher Victor Martinez, and third baseman Casey Blake. "Joe, we know you've been struggling, but we're behind you 100%."   "Thanks, Gark. That means a lot." (under his breath) "We'd have to play 500% behind you to catch any of the balls they're gonna hit." "What was that?" "Huh? Oh, nothing." "¡Vamos a perder este juego en la manera espectacular! Los coches en el garage del estacionamiento serán abollados por los homeruns que usted permite, y los dueños tendrán que decirlo eran daños del granizo para conseguir su seguro para pagar él!" "¿Sí, usted tiene idea cuántos perros conseguirán golpeados con el pie esta noche debido a usted? ¡Usted es peor para los perros que el lanzador de Atlanta Falcons!" "Uh, grassyass, amigos. Grassyass." "Okay, let's concentrate. One is the fastball, and two is the change-up, but don't sweat it because it's not going to cross me up either way. Let's go with a second-sign indicator." "Second-sign right away? They don't have a runner on 2nd base." "It'll save me the trip. I gotta watch my hamstring." (Takes ball from Borowski.) Let's cut through the crap, Borowski. I only have one thing to say to you-- Warning-track fly these motherfuckers out!   ------------------------------------------------ SCENE: After a lead-off double, Martinez comes out to the mound. "Shake it off. He just didn't get under it enough to give Grady a chance to catch up to it and make one of those wall-crashing web gems."   "I think you're tipping my location, Vic." "Joe, I have to set up behind the middle of the plate because that's where the pitches go, and I have to be able to catch the ball should they actually miss it one of these times." "Just do me a favor and set up outside. That might cross them up."   --------------------------------------------------------- SCENE: After a five-pitch walk, Martinez comes out to the mound. "See? We mixed him up by setting you up outside!"   "Joe, all of those pitches were inside."     "Yeah, but he didn't hit any of 'em, except the one that he fouled off."   "Fouled off?" "It was definitely foul. The umpire said he knew for sure that the ball curled just in front of the yellow pole. I heard him yell it at the other manager when they were arguing."   "Okay, whatever. I'm out here because you just walked the tying run and now the go-ahead run is coming up. You need to get this guy out and you need to throw strikes."   "At the same time?"   "Just do it!" ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- SCENE: The next batter lines an RBI single, making it a one-run game with runners on first and third. The infielders hold a conference on the mound.   "That's okay, Joe. Tough luck. Line drives find holes sometimes."     (under his breath) "Tell that to Hafner."   "This is a pressure situation, Joe. First and third, no outs,the tying run is 90 feet away. You can do this! You're a closer! You led the American League in saves last year! You can do this!"     "I know! I've been licking my fingers for good luck!"   "Hey, how about I give it a try?"   "Lick your own damn fingers!"     "No, I mean let me have a try for this batter."   "Good idea, Case! Okay, Joe, since this is a pressure situation, Casey is going to help us out and hit for the other team. Just throw the ball down the middle and Casey won't swing."   "No, I meant me and Joe can switch places. Ask Gark. I can throw the high hard one."   (under his breath) "More like the high and wide one."   "Casey, you're a third baseman. If you guys switch, Joe can't make that throw all the way across the diamond."   "Podemos utilizar quizá a un hombre del atajo."   "O un relais de dos mangos como tenemos que utilizar para el fielder izquierdo lento con un pene blando para un brazo." "No, let's just stick to the original plan. Come on, Joe! Do it!" ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SCENE: Borowski's next pitch lands in Heritage Park. The Indians, up two runs moments ago, now trail by two runs. There is another infield conference on the mound.   "Fuckin' hell! It was almost like he was sitting on a thigh-high fastup changeball!"   "I guess they have really good scouts or something."   (under his breath) "At least I get to hit in the 9th inning now." "¡Si tenía un dólar para mi nombre conseguí cada vez deletreado mal, podría comprarnos un closer nuevo!"   "¡Yo también, Asdrubal! Cuál estaba una vez una maldición de mis padres sería una bendición divina si podríamos utilizar el dinero para comprar una closer verdadera para substituir este pinata trapo-armado!"     "Grassyass, amigos. Vic, tell them that their kind words mean a lot, but I still feel like I let them down." "Él piensa que estoy traduciendo sus palabras, pero era pensando nosotros podría romperse "accidentalmente" el brazo del cabeceo. Ideemos un plan mañana."   "Hey, skip. I'm sorry."   (takes ball from Borowski) (*twitch*) (*tic*) "That's okay, Joe. (*tic*) (*twitch*)  You battled and you respected the game. (*twitch*) Now, all you need to do is take a shower and separate."   (under his breath) "Yeah, his shoulder."   "What was that?" (*twitch*)   "Huh? Oh. Nothing."   (*twitch*) "Anyway, Joe, all we ask is that our pitchers give us a chance to win. (*tic*) (*twitch*) Good job. (*tic*) Thanks to your pitching, you've given us a chance to win in the bottom of the 9th inning. (*twitch*) (*tic*) (*twitch*)   THE END   Disclaimer: Spanish translation services were provided by Babelfish. When using Babelfish to unlock the quotes by Droobs, Jhonny, and Victor, please keep in mind that Babelfish kinda sucks, so I apologize to those three players if they come across like a trio of Hispanic Shannon Sharpes. (I did, however, take the time to reverse engineer the translations to ensure that they sort of make sense when translated back to English.) Posted Apr 15 2008, 10:44 PM by Sirk with no comments

• Would JoBo have a job if he weren't a "closer"?

  A thought occurred to me in the wee hours of the morning as I drifted off to sleep while counting Angels rounding the bases: Would Joe Borowski even have a job if he weren't a "closer"? This seems an odd question to ask of The 2007 American League Leader In Saves And Don't You Forget It, but seriously... if he weren't set up as the glorified collector of such a misleading and meaningless statistic, would Joe Borowski be in the position to force good people to watch baseball through their fingers? Last year, Borowski had a 5.07 ERA and a WHIP (walks/hits per inning pitched) of 1.43. Those numbers are bad. Awful. Horrible. Maybe not Guillermo Mota awful or Jose Jimenez horrible, but pathetic nonetheless. In 2006, Fernando Cabrera put up similar numbers (5.19 / 1.40) and was run out of town midway through the next season. In 2004, Rick White posted 5.29 / 1.49 and the Indians braintrust personally drove him to the airport so he could catch the next plane to Anywhere But Here. Ah, but they didn't have the glorious Saves. The save may be the most over-hyped, watered-down, and back-assword stat in all of baseball. Don't get me wrong-- there are some intense saves. Facing the heart of the Yankee lineup in the Bronx while clinging to a one-run lead...that can be heart-pounding stuff. But that's not what most saves are. Most saves involve the manager handing the closer the ball with a 2-3 run lead, facing the bottom of the order, and, well, if the closer doesn't screw up too horrendously, he gets a tidy little Save to add to his salary-demand file. The rules of pitching no longer apply. It doesn't matter if you can throw strikes, or keep runners off the bases, or get people out effectively. As long as you can get three outs before whatever lead you've been given has been erased, you're a success. After all, as we've heard time and time again, "It doesn't have to be pretty as long as the job gets done." By that logic, closers are allowed to drive home drunk as long as they don't kill anybody. Middle relievers are held to a higher standard of pitching performance. If you look at the success of the 2007 Indians, it was due in large part because of the brilliant pitching of Rafael Betancourt (1.47 / 0.76), Rafael Perez (1.78 / 0.92), and Jensen Lewis (2.15 / 1.23). This trio held the line in tie games, protected tight leads, and worked out of jams left for them by tiring starters. They had the most difficult roles in the bullpen and they excelled. Since the advent of the save statistic, a curious trend developed whereby managers managed to the stat. "Closers" are now almost exclusively used in "save situations." It has been suggested by many baseball thinkers that this actually squanders the effectiveness of your best reliever, assuming the closer is in fact the best reliever on most teams. There are many crucial junctures that may happen before an official "save situation" that may in fact be tougher than the save situation itself. The 2007 Indians became the poster boys to that line of thinking. By tabbing one of their worst relievers to be the closer, the Indians let the talented trio of Betancourt, Perez, and Lewis do the heavy lifting. Then it was Borowski's job to not fuck it up too badly in the 9th.  Let's look at Borowski's numbers last year, broken down by situation. These are broken down by one-run lead, two-run lead, 3-run lead or more, or tie ballgames. I didn't bother to look at mop-up duty in lost ballgames, as those numbers are irrelevant. One-run leads When entrusted with a one-run lead, Borowski pitched surprisingly well, but didn't necessarily get results. In 19 games, he had an ERA of 2.37 and a WHIP of 1.21. He converted 68% (13 of 19) of these save opportunities. The win expectancy of a team leading by one run at the start of the final inning is approximately 87%, so JoBo had a few blown saves too many. Two-run leads It takes a lot of suck to blow a 2-run lead in the final inning, and Borowski delivered suckage in not-quite-lethal dosages. When protecting a 2-run lead, Borowski posted a 5.51 ERA but still saved 15 of 17 two-run leads, which is an 88% success rate. Then again, the win expectancy for a team leading by two runs at the start of the final inning is approximately 95%, so JoBo had one blown save too many. Three-run leads or more While closers can get credit for 3-run "saves", sometimes closers are entrusted with even larger leads that are so preposterous that they can't even be counted as save opportunities. I have lumped all of these together. In the situation were Borowski was asked to close out a lead of 3 or more runs, Borowski was exceptionally sucky, but almost perfect. JoBo posted a 5.63 ERA and a staggering WHIP of 1.53. In save situations, he was 17-for-17, which is good because the win expectancy in such situations is 99%. But let's not forget his meltdown in the Bronx, where be blew a 4-run ninth inning lead. In 21 total games with a lead of 3+ runs, he closed out 20 of 21, for 95%. So that's another blown "save" too many, even though it didn't count as a blown save. Tie games There are times when there is no save situation to be had, so the closer is called upon to put up a goose egg in extra innings to give his team a chance to win. Borowski was horrible in these situations. In seven appearances, he posted an 8.53 ERA and a 2.21 WHIP, losing three of those seven games. Looking at it another way, he converted just four of those seven opportunities, for a conversion rate of 57%. One-run leads PLUS tie games = "close encounters" Not counting the "gimme" saves, the closer's most crucial roles are the games in which he is called upon to put up a goose-egg. So to me, it seems fair to lump those tie-game extra inning appearances with the one-run save situations as "close encounters." After all, the goal is the same. No runs. So if we add all those up, Borowski posted a 3.91 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP. He converted 17 of 26 "close encounters", for an unimpressive conversion rate of 65%. Put Borowski in a close encounter, and he'll blow the game one out of three times. Set-up men and middle relievers are afforded no such luxury. To paraphrase Hillary, when the bullpen phone rings in the 7th inning and there are two runners on with one out, who do you want warming up with Luis Isaac? If Borowski didn't have the institutionalized advantage of collecting 32 over-glorified saves when the win probability was already in the 95th percentile or greater, he would surely be out of a job. Further proof that the save is one of the dumbest stats in all of baseball. Posted Apr 08 2008, 11:31 PM by Sirk with 1 comment(s) Filed under: MLB, Tribe